Sunday Morning Quarterback

SMQ IS ON THE MOVE

2006-09-01T08:21:00.000-07:00

SMQ IS ON THE MOVE
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Yes, yes, the rumors are true. Wait, what? Nobody was talking about SMQ? Oh.

But it is a fact this morning the operation of Sunday Morning Quarterback is officially moving off Blogger: The new url is simply sundaymorningqb.com. That will be this site's home. Very, very little has changed or will change there. Updates on the site you are reading should cease indefinitely.

See y'all on the other side.

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2006 PREVIEW, VERY, VERY OMG FAST: THE SEC

2006-08-31T12:49:00.001-07:00

2006 PREVIEW, VERY, VERY OMG FAST: THE SEC
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Kickoff of the SEC season is a little less than four hours away, a good time, it would seem, for SMQ to put up some conference predictions, wouldn't you say?

The SEC hasn't had a consensus, head-and-shoulders favorite in about a decade, and the morass is as murky as ever. All agree Florida, Auburn, LSU, Tennessee and Georgia will be worthy competitors for a league championship. All know Alabama and probably Arkansas and South Carolina, maybe Ole Miss, are quality competition with very high and attainable postseason hopes and represent the perpetual threat of an upset that puts a screeching halt to all previous speculation; i.e., all projections, as always, are tentative. But some (say, Arkansas) are more tentative than others (Kentucky).

For the sake of time, preliminaries have been dispensed.

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH (SMQ BlogPoll Ranking)
This is not a power poll...

1. Florida (#6)
This is one terrifying defense, both for opponents bound to be routinely Siler-smashed by a devastating front seven and to Gator fans desperately praying no quarterback gets off a pass into the blissfully young secondary. Much bigger problems include the offensive line and running game in general, which is not going to help Chris Leak go out with the kind of bang he’d like if his blazing receiver squadron again are banned from taking routes further than ten yards downfield this year. Not a ringing endorsement, but SMQ's giving Urban Meyer he benefit of the doubt here. He scrapped the option and opened things up a little later on in the season, and the end results against Florida State and Iowa were good omens. Still, though, this is the defense that ought to solidify the Gators’ newfound status as a more conservative (relative to the "Fun 'N Gun," elements of which carried over throughout the Zook Era), primarily defensive-minded team.
2. Auburn (#9)
Kenny Irons, surgical play-action game, etc. Auburn’s very good. SMQ's lingering doubts about the Tigers on a mythical title level derive from their defensive line, which is hell on the pass rush and has done well stopping the run, but remains a little light in the pants to run the table in a league stocked with quality power rushers; the linebackers are still all safeties. The graduation of Tommy Jackson at DT and OTs Marcus McNeil and Troy Reddick will add a full mile per gallon to team bus trips, and is probably being underrated in terms of how much the team will miss them.
3. LSU (#10)
Including quarterback, this is the best and deepest set of skill guys in the league, with questions lingering instead on both lines. On defense, end Melvin Oliver and especially the tackles, Kyle Williams and Claude Wroten, seemed to mean the world to the defense, and live forever in the nightmares of Brodie Croyle and Chris Leak; new young behemoths such as Glenn Dorsey will not have the same effects immediately. Otherwise, the only potential derailment comes via an unexpected QB meltdown/controversy of the malignant variety.
4. Tennessee (#15)
See above, minus the "good problem to have" quarterback situation: Tennessee’s defensive line was an unstoppable force and an unmovable object, the only really real, consistent positive in a dismal season, and, like LSU's, has largely shuffled off to seek fame and fortune among the professionals. Erik Ainge begins working without a safety net, i.e. Rick Clausen or Brent Schaeffer, a sign of certain gore if David Cutcliffe's hypnotic mind tricks fail to turn the skittish junior into Peyton Manning. Weapons at receiver and in the running game are available if the ball can reach them often enough.

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It's sink or swim for Erik Ainge and Tennessee

5. Georgia (#22)
Hope justifiably springs eternal where Mark Richt and three of the last four SEC East title are concerned, but not when assessing UGA's quarterback, offensive line, defensive line and secondary situations, all of which feature hordes of newbies moving into long-occupied positions. That pretty much everyone outside of SMQ regards the Bulldogs as surefire division contenders again in spite of such youth is a testament to the stability Richt's instilled in a short time. But that doesn't get you past eight wins by itself.
6. Arkansas
SMQ had guessed just checking out the huge number of returning players and last year’s vast start-to-finish improvement that the Razorbacks would be among his Blog Poll top 25, but the final tally left them just outside. He should say for the record that, while Phil Steele's going slightly overboard at No. 13 on a team with such quarterbacking uncertainty, Arkansas' good on both lines, can run (can really, really run) and stop the run, is going to be a formidable out for the league's big boys, and possibly a West contender. But do not scar Mitch Mustain for life by tossing him to the dogs against USC, SMQ begs.
7. Alabama
The Crimson Tide were among the handful of teams – Penn State, UCLA, and Texas Tech among them – who rode a crest of coalescing senior leadership to a "career year" in '05, but who are likely to slip back into more familiar patterns this fall. For Alabama under the Perplexed-Looking Mike Shula, that means six or seven wins and looming "hot seat" intonations for the coach by random bowl time, extensions be damned. That assessment might send Bammer fans into a crimson rage, but the attrition from last year’s Mack truck defense – just good enough to put an offense led by an experienced quarterback over the top as it was – will make too much difference for even a sober John Parker Wilson to make up in his first year behind center.
8. South Carolina
A specter is haunting the secondaries of the Southeast…the specter of Sidney Rice! Were it only that the rest of the team had the ability of the freakish, under-exposed sophomore, the 'Cocks wouldn't need another immensely talented apparition, Steve Spurrier, on the sideline to raise them this high. Without a reliable running game and attrition hitting hard a quality defense, USC isn't in a position to cash in on 2005's late success just yet.

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Who dares attempt to cover Sidney Rice?

9. Ole Miss
Has the feel of a team lurking around the declaration of "sleeping giant" status on the strength of The Orgeron's recruiting prowess in the nation's best football state, but, like fellow 3-8 victim Arizona out West, there’s no room here to rise. Being better, while replacing virtually all of the defensive line and receivers and breaking in talented transfers Brent Schaeffer and BenJarvus Green-Ellis in the offensive backfield, means beating going back to beating the Vanderbilts and only losing by one touchdown instead of two (or, in the case of Mississippi State, three). Beware the linebackers, though, where Patrick Willis figures to rock even while shedding the memorable club from which he drew most of his strength during his prolific '05 campaign.
10. Mississippi State
Another case of "improvement" that will result in tangibly in only a few more rings per cowbell (god help us if State ever gets on a roll, and all-consuming ESPN does the inevitable cowbell feature; the entire state would go temporarily deaf by the validation). SMQ, being familiar with the books on a few recent Bulldog recruits from their high school days, knows this team has some quality talent, but none of it is on offense, where a new backfield crop will only exacerbate the woeful prospects at quarterback and in the passing game in general. Ought to keep more games within striking distance, and take solace in that.
11. Kentucky
One high-quality player, in this case Rafael Little, does not a competitor make, and Kentucky's myriad deficiencies across the field are omnipresent and show no signs of allowing the 'Cats anywhere near the cellar door. What is the last winning team UK took down?
12. Vanderbilt
Might have all the air of a team "on the rise" after upsetting Tennessee, terrifying Florida and coming very, very close to breaking even in-conference, but at the same time lost to Middle Tennessee State with a first round draft choice, becoming in the process the only I-A team to lose to a Sun Belt program. The odds of the whole being better without Jay Cutler are next to nil.

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2006 PREVIEW, VERY, VERY QUICKLY: THE BIG EAST

2006-08-31T10:27:00.000-07:00

2006 PREVIEW, VERY, VERY QUICKLY: THE BIG EAST
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If this is getting done, the time is now.

Check here and here for SMQ's previous thoughts on the Big East's power couple, Louisville and West Virginia, and why the Mountaineer hype will be up in smoke in short order.

1. Louisville (#14)
In reality, SMQ believes Louisville will finish in the top ten if it loses only to Miami, pending the bowl match-up. The Cardinals deserve the role of favorite a year removed from losing the league title in overtime after an admittedly fouled-up onside kick call and returning the league's leading passer (Brian Brohm), rusher (Michael Bush) and receiver (Mario Urrutia). The defense gets a little bit worse rep than it deserves, though the numbers were skewed favorably by Elvis Dumervil's pass rush prowess, and three new defensive linemen with Phil Steele notations PS#330 by their names aren't likely to match that production. Six of the back seven, however, are back. Miami and West Virginia=coming to Louisville.
2. West Virginia (#18)
SMQ's "prove it" team of the year. A stellar choice on paper, and would be a disappointment even to SMQ if it were to win fewer than nine. But history says WVU has never been able to sustain year-to-year momentum following a "breakthrough" season like the one it clearly produced in 2005. When you've got ten starters back from an offense that ended last season by kicking ass to the tune of at least six yards per carry in each of the final four games (SMQ will spot them .1 yard against Cincinnati), that is reason for optimism, but a carbon copy is probably too optimistic. Pat White's one-dimensional nature is a burden, but will not necessarily be a problem in more than two or three games if the veteran offensive line handles its business against the teams it's supposed to. SMQ thinks we'll know pretty quickly how much merit his doubts carry.
3. Pittsburgh
A bowl game beckons with any semblance of a run game. The Thanksgiving turnstile effort at West Virginia skewed some not-horrible numbers against the run, where the Panthers are pretty experienced this time around. Linebacker H.B. Blades and cornerback Darrelle Revis are a couple of the best defensive players in the country in terms of production and "expert" ratings. Tyler Palko can still be one of the top ten quarterbacks in the country, depending on what's going on at any given moment with the offensive line and his receivers' health/hands. A more experienced line (four returning starters) that improved towards the end of last year will help him out.

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I need a running back!

4. South Florida
All defense here. The offense was weak and lost its one legit star, running back Andre Hall, which makes the Spring benching and conversion to receiver of super-hyped/flummoxed quarterback Carlton Hill in favor of the imminently replaceable Pat Julmiste all the more painful. Linebackers and secondary should be good; a second bowl bid should be coming, even if the Bulls are at just six wins again, if only to make up for past snubs when they were in Conference USA.
5. Rutgers
The Knights could make a top 25 list or two if Ryan Hart returned, because Mike Teel threw ten interceptions to just two touchdowns in limited injury replacement time. The running backs, Raymell Rice and Brian Leonard, are an excellent combo, though, and a lot of catches return. The biggest hit may be on the defensive line, which was very solid, aggressive (47 sacks!) and now 75 percent new, but probably not very improved.
6. Connecticut
Should have a competent running game, but with some quarterback issues; Dan Hernandez or Matt Bonislawski could both play. Unsung linebacker Danny Lansanah received no honors as a freshman despite leading the team with 80 tackles and collecting three sacks, eight tackles for loss, five pass breakups and two interceptions. The top ten defense will miss its other star, James Hargrave, but should be easily one of the top two or three in the conference. Good things can happen here if the offense can get its act together.
7. Cincinnati
SMQ guarantees one upset by 2005's youngest team, one that was terrible but that also returns everyone and should be much improved. This may not be monumental upset, but will inch the team up to near .500. Cincy had a four-year bowl streak prior to last season with Gino Guidugli at the helm, and is not a pushover in this spot. This may not show on the final record.
8. Syracuse
The Orange~~men~~ are pushovers. Or were, at least, and there's no reason to think they won't be again. Statistically, as bad as any team in the nation lasat season.

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2006 PREVIEW, VERY QUICKLY: THE PAC TEN

2006-08-30T22:27:00.000-07:00

2006 PREVIEW, QUICKLY: THE PAC TEN
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Say what you will about the PAC Ten - we know you will - but at least recognize this: these no defense-playin' fly boys ain't playing scared. Eight of the league's ten teams play opponents ranked in the top 20 outside of the conference, and the two that don't, Arizona State and Oregon State, have strenuous visits to Colorado and Boise State, respectively. In the opening week alone, three West Coast teams are visitng SEC stadiums; another (Arizona) comes to LSU in Week Two, the same day Washington visits Oklahoma. And when other schools were falling over themselves to schedule Buffalo and East Tennessee State in the new 12th game slot, the PAC Ten did the right thing by adding a ninth game. No more avoiding Oregon (UCLA) or missing out on a cupcake the rest of the league gets to devour (Washington State will relish that visit from Arizona this time around).

This is one of the country's deepest conferences, perhaps its best from top to bottom, where every team seems to be 'on the rise.' Except one, natuarlly, and it couldn't possibly rise any higher. Also perhaps the only league in which literally every team looks like a legitimate bowl contender; there are probably no projected last place teams anywhere better than Stanford and Washington, which says something (don't know what, but something).

Underlying Literary Themes in the PAC Ten
Isolation and Exile - Sam Keller had nothing but nice words about his brief reign as the starting quarterback at the People's Democratic Republic of Arizona State, which ended in a coup d'etat by Keller's one-time comrades, who forced the apparent figurehead to install Rudy Carpenter in Keller's position despite the close but free and fair selection of Keller just days earlier. Yet, deep inside, the exiled Keller must be hoping his eminent takeover at Nebraska will result in a Holiday Bowl showdown with his old mates in 2007; in the meantime, imagine Keller as Uma Thurman's character in Kill Bill, methodically, psychotically prepping for vengeance.

Death and Dying (Death is part of living, giving life its final meaning) - "Death" is an overreaction to the monumental exits at USC, but there will be some deserved mourning in the wake of the departures of two Heisman Trophies, a mythical championship and a half, three PAC Ten titles, an ongoing, 23-game conference win streak and mostly unverified scandal with Leinart, White, Bush and Co. The replacements must now brave an inevitable winter - 11-2 OMG Outrage!! - before its talent can fully bloom, according to the Cruel Laws of an Indifferent Universe.

Bildungsroman - At Arizona, Dick Tomey and especially John Mackovic after him represent forms of loss, discontent and rebellion that jarred the Wildcats into a long, arduous, and gradual process of maturity, consisting of repeated clashes between their needs and desires and the views and judgments enforced by an unbending social order in which they were frequently on the bottom. In hiring Mike Stoops, a frustrating beginning has given way to a revelation (quarterback Willie Tuitama and a 52-14 head-exploder over UCLA), some subsequent setbacks (a three-touchdown home loss to Washington the next week) and the manifestation of the spirit and values of the external social order within the program. By the end of the season, UA will be able to more accurately assess its new place in PAC Ten society.

SMQ Must Justify...
UCLA won ten games in 2005. Washington State won three. So SMQ says the first number's almost cut in half, and the second doubles. These teams were virtually identical last year in terms of yards and points and yards allowed and points allowed; outside of USC (an extreme outlier), Washington State to three ranked teams (including UCLA) and Arizona State by four points or less apiece, while UCLA frantically rallied for miraculous late wins on four different occasions - Washington State, in overtime, being one of them. Consider also that WSU outgained UCLA in conference games, averaging more than a yard more per carry and allowing a yard and a half less per carry; in six conference losses (again, not including USC), WSU fell by an average of 4.3 points while suffering a minus-five turnover rate and missing 3-8 Arizona, whereas UCLA won six league games with a plus-six turnover ratio and didn't play 10-win Oregon. Under the new 3-2-5-e rule, the Bruins would have likely watched the seconds tick off four more losses in '05; the Cougars, two more wins. With Washington State plugging in JUCO star JT Deidrechs for Jerome Harrison and returning everyone else, and UCLA losing Drew Olson, Maurice Drew and half the defense, those fortunes will meet about halfway this time around.

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If you lost five out of six games by four points or less, you'd need a hug, too

Most Likely To Prove SMQ Wrong
Obviously, one picks against the Trojans at his own risk. SC's won 30 of its last 32 PAC Ten games, for god's sake. Cal has provided the stiffest conference test now three years running, but is not quite on the same plane, talent-wise, and could finish as low as fourth (in the PAC Ten, that is, not the nation).

If One Thing Is Certain...
One team will allow at least 500 yards and 35 points per game. Last year, Washington State gave up 501.6 a pop, with UCLA right behind at a little over 497, and both allowed five touchdowns or more on a consistent basis. The Bruins could again fall so low, but a massive rebuilding project at Stanford makes the Cardinal uniquely qualified. Given the level of offensive firepower everywhere (save maybe Washington), it's an inevitability.

Alternate Endings
The USC-Cal winner is the presumptive favorite; barring that, Oregon and Arizona State have rough and unlikely designs on crashing the big-money series their own selves. UCLA may have the guns to compete in such an area again, whereas Washington State could be slipping back into the cellar. Oregon State, Stanford and Washington are clearly the three worst teams, but it shouldn't surprise anyone to see any of them in the postseason hunt. A wide, wide open league with a lot of possibilities, all of them about equally plausible.

Projected Order of Finish (SMQ's BlogPoll Ranking)
This is not a power poll...

1. California (#2)

Jeff Tedford + deep, Heisman-contending (and upstanding!) backfield + bitchin' run defense + misleading record due to close losses X (Cruel Laws of Indifferent Universe + Wide open mythical championship race) = Picture perfect sleeper.

Question the "bitchin' run defense" if you must, but this was certainly true of a similarly experienced group in 2004, when the Bears allowed 2.7 per carry (just 1.6 to USC) and 16 points per game while playing in an offense-mad league, and this year's front seven crop - which allowed 3.3 a carry over the season as an entirely retooled unit last year - is at least as talented as that one (and has an all-America type corner backing it up, Daymeion Hughes, who was just a rookie starter in '04). Question the quarterbacks, you must, but do so with Tedford's history of guiding talented, inexperienced passers into sudden, must-have draft studs firmly in mind.
2. Southern Cal (#4)
Nationally, Texas may be able to claim talent equivalency. That would be about it. But no team in recent history has thwarted the malaise - by which SMQ means maybe two losses, three max - that inevitably follows the departure of production on the level of the Big Three from the Trojan backfield, which itself obscures the exodus of three offensive linemen, both defensive tackles and three-fourths of the secondary, the vast majority of which is collecting hefty paychecks these days. And still SC probably deserves to be favored in every game, even if the cosmic order dictates somebody with an offensive pulse - Nebraska, Arizona State, Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame - will shut down the surprisingly anonymous, youth-and-injury-plagued backs and pressure the new quarterback into enough mistakes to rend a scarlet and gold garment or two.
3. Arizona State (#20)
Keller's overthrow and effective banishment can have only psychological effects here, and not necessarily negative ones. There should be no worries whatsoever with El Presidente Rudy Carpenter emerging - or else - as the leader of the offensive junta. Worries are entirely on defense, where there is justified optimism about the addition of former all-Big Ten end Loren Howard, a Northwestern transfer just before last season, but how good was Northwestern' defense with him? More shoot-out ball is eminent, and the Devils are equipped for it.

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Hey, Rudy, no pressure, man, right?

4. Oregon (#21)
There is slight trepidation surrounding the new backfield tandem of Dennis Dixon/Brady Leaf and Jonathan Stewart/Jeremiah Johnson, without much else to worry about besides two new corners. Stewart is to be feared. Asking for consecutive ten win seasons is probably biting off more than these Ducks can, um, chew, but this is by and large a "beat goes on" situation that will compete with anyone.
5. Washington State
Had the league's best offense (in total yards) behind USC, produced the nation's leading regular season rusher and put the fear of god into winning teams on a weekly basis, yet only won a single PAC Ten game, against Washington, because of an atrocious defense and what SMQ presumes was the worst luck in the nation (possibly karmic retribution for Ryan Leaf?). The skimpy margin between this team and eight wins was recounted above; better bounces and ample experience on defense ought to close that gap by about half.
6. UCLA
The other side of the coin, the fortuitous team that preyed on many a hapless secondary and Lady Luck's near-boundless favor to win ten must be due to revert to the mean, which, under Karl Dorrell, has been about six wins. L.A. could top that by a game, maybe two. But the hammering it took in two losses late in the season is an ominous sign; how many teams go 6-2 in-conference and are outscored overall by opponents by five touchdowns? SMQ knows, he knows, Ben Olson brings the lefty pain (and over-aged Mormon mission karma), but that fortune, sans the Drews, cannot continue.
7. Arizona
While previewing los gatos montesas in the offseason, SMQ was swayed by the Arizona media department's near-revolutionary screed declaring the arch of history compelled a bowl berth by a Wildcat team "peopled by those who believe," but he's since lost his dose of impetus: the fact is that the depth of the conference and 'Zona's iffy running game put them again on the outside of postseason developments.
8. Oregon State
A little unfair to drop the Beavers this far after a sudden string of competiveness and fight this decade, and with nothing like a mass exodus occuring on either side; in fact, the quarterback, two quality wide outs, a former all-conference tight end, a 1,300-yard rusher and all five offensive linemen return from a perfectly capable offense. And the kicker! My god, the kicker! And the team was a ghastly minus-14 in turnover margin, a sign of eminent turnaround. But not every team in the league can rebound all at once, so, with ball-sucking vortex Mike Hass and the top two tacklers (and top three sackers) gone, SMQ predicts further five-win doom for the Beavers. All the preceding is moot, however, if Matt Moore cuts the picks (an NCAA-high 19 last year) in half and Yvenson Bernard, a poor man's Mike Hart as a tough but very short plugger, doesn't need 30 carries to break a hundred.
9. Washington
Another potential up-and-comer, were the position not so capably filled by half the rest of the league. Isaiah Stanback is a baseball and former track guy playing quarterback and can run, run like the wind, but is a middling passer and has never completely wrestled the job from Casey Paus and Johnny DuRocher. The team's also going on its ninth year without a 1,000-yard rusher, according to Phil Steele, with no prospects in sight. The defense was actually respectable, and features another surely-destructive Tuiasosopo over there (backup linebacker Trenton), but Ty Willingham's not taking these guys anywhere in the PAC Ten at 21 points a game. The signature win the past two years (out of three to choose from) is Arizona last year.
10. Stanford
Quarterback-for-life Trent Edwards can be classified as a positive by now, but remember: the Cardinal became the indispensable key to the absurdity of the 2005 version of the College Football Victory Chain Linker by losing to I-AA UC-Davis, a game in which (without Edwards) its offense was held under 200 yard total yards. Stanford improved from there, certainly, but pretty much the whole, terrible defense graduated, and it didn't improve that much.

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SMQ REPS DA WEST SIDE

2006-08-30T16:52:00.000-07:00

SMQ REPS DA WESTSIDE
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California took wide, broad steps today in fulfilling SMQ's irresponsible mythical title projections when Jeff Tedford, as expected/hoped, named Nate Longshore the starting quarterback for the Tennessee game over ticking time bomb Joe Ayoob. It's the second straight year Longshore's beaten out Ayoob for the job and despite the caution advised by SMQ's new "J.P. Losman Rule" (applicable to players who, like the Buffalo Bills' third-year quarterback, must be "named the starter" over multiple seasons), the law does not apply in Longshore's case because he was instantly injured for the season in the Bears' 2005 opener, not jettisoned, like Ayoob, for poor performance.

SMQ, like the rest of the world, has never seen Longshore take a college snap, because he's only had about 15 or so, all against Sacramento State. Longshore is a huge (6-5, 230) redshirt sophomore who came in well regarded out of high school two years ago, but more importantly, he's not Ayoob, without whom the Bears will forge on unless absolutely necessary. With just a little bit better play from the JUCO transfer last year, an 8-4 team with a dominant running game could have easily taken at least two more games - Oregon State (a three-point loss in which Ayoob was 13 of 39 with two interceptions) and Oregon (10-26, 88 yards, 3 INT, 0 TD in another field goal defeat) - and maybe UCLA (a touchdown loss wherein the sharply-dressed and hygienic Marshawn Lynch and Co. averaged eight yards per carry). Ayoob was benched after a dreadful 98-yard, four-intercetion debacle against USC, which may not have cost the Bears a win (though the Trojans were "held" to 434 yards and 35 points on 4.0 yards per carry and 246 yards passing, only a small nudge above SC's season low totals in each category), but certainly did not give them a chance. When bar brawling Steve Levy, Ayoob's replacement for the Stanford and BYU wins, returns from suspension, Ayoob may yield - again - to him as well.

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Yeah, Joe, you're doing greaaaat, but we're gonna need you to go ahead and stay over to the sidelines this weekend, mmkay? Greaaaaaat...

In other West Coast news, the San Diego-based Poinsettia Bowl, which is an actual game played between two real teams, was so taken with the military manliness of Navy's chart-busting triple option that it decided a return visit was a must-have for the city's massive armed forces community. Problem is, Navy's already taken, by the prestigious Meineke Car Care Bowl (the Midshipmen have a tie-in to face George Foreman and his sons), so the San Diego Credit Union took the next best thing: Army! Actually, the second-to-next-best thing, since Air Force is tied in with the Mountain West's affiliations. All the Cadets have to do to send Bobby Ross back to the site of his greatest triumph (the 1994 AFC Champion Chargers) is go 6-6. Even, SMQ guesses, if those six are Arkansas State, Kent State, Baylor, Rice, VMI, Tulane and the aforementioned USAFA, the dirty half-dozen most likely to fall to Army this season. If they make it on those merits, the Cadets and the Poinsettia Bowl truly deserve each other.

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SMQ HOMERISM: Orson Swindle on Southern Miss-Florida, from a Gator perspective

2006-08-29T14:13:00.000-07:00

SMQ HOMERISM: KEEP YOUR ENEMIES CLOSE
Orson Swindle on Southern Miss at Florida, from a Gator perspective
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A mere five days from the dramatic, long-awaited debuts of their adopted programs in bloody struggle against one another, SMQ sat down with prominent blogger/uber-Florida fan Orson Swindle over lollipops made from reduced olive brine, olive flavoring and salt crystallized in isomalt and stuffed with blue cheese to discuss the state of their respective teams, and of college football in general, specifically the relative socioeconomic effects of the paternal hierarchy enabled by the hegemonic ethos of the sport's corporatist ruling class.

Instead, we wound up getting smashed, inappropriately hitting on our waitress, brawling over the legacies of Michael Tobias and Ed Chester, getting tossed out onto the street in a heap and slurringly dictating this and the following from the back of a cab before being booted from it, too:

SMQ: What are you hoping to see from this game, realistically? In other words, how much can you read into what happens Saturday as a preview of the rest of the season?

Orson: It will determine the course of Florida football as we know it for the next fifty years, SMQ.

It's actually not that important, but it does represent a game of real value in that it combines "most likely gonna win yawn stretch game" against an out-of-conference smaller foe with a legitimate test of where the Gators stand coming out of fall camp. USM has the reputation of being a giant-killer without actually slaying all that many giants. In other words, for game one two weeks before going to Knoxville to play the Vols, they're pinup model perfect, and not just on the surface of things.

The Golden Eagles' defense is notoriously feisty, something we'll need to see since Leak got two free passes in the fluffy prelude to being stymied by the Tennessee D last year. Yet it's not too much of a bad thing, since their secondary is shot through with inexperience and our offensive strength happens to lean on our deep, immortal crew of of Highlander wideouts. So it'll be a challenge where we need it (up front) but a gimme where we can likely score when we really have to (through the air just about anywhere past the linebackers).

The offense...well, the offense could get hurt. We mean that, as in thrown aside, trampled, mugged, hit with tire irons, and hurt. You may recall the Orwell line,"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." These are those men, and we are the ones sleeping comfortably at night because of them. On our behalf, they will do harm to a USM offense that has been outgained in C-USA play consistently for two years now. Prayer, as always, helps, unless we're talking about Brandon Siler. Nothing will help you with him, and bullets will only make him angrier.

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Brandon Siler: Can only be stopped by driving a stake through his heart

SMQ: 1-10, how concerned are you about this game? Is there any particular aspect of Southern Miss that concerns you?

Orson: Take it as a 5 for "Respectful and properly wary." We doubt Meyer will have the team thinking four easy laps around the fifteen minute clock and out; they know USM's got a knack for keeping things close, and that everyone's soft-peddling expectations thanks to off-season chatter about the schedule, the season, and the excellent flag football quarterback they're sporting under center.

USM's overall M.O. of being sound on special teams, stout on defense--especially through the line--and somehow winning games despite doing diddly-poo on offense. Teams that can do this should scare the hair off your knuckles, and with good reason: they can hang around, look like they're doing bupkis for three quarters, and then enter the fourth surrounded by the aura of potential upset around them. They're doubly frustrating because as an overdog it feels less like them winning and more like you losing to yourself. The lasting implications of games like these are, as you cannily noted with the Nebraska and Alabama examples in your review, damaging, persistent, and season-wrecking.

The real indicator of whether Florida came to play will ultimately be Rece Davis. Rece Davis breaks in game for to alert viewers about "shocking developments" in-game. If Rece Davis doesn't mention our broadcast at any point between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m., we'll toast his name gleefully and call the night a success. If he does, we'll be waiting with the brick in hand, ready to kill the evil box showing us things we don't want to see with one surehanded toss.

SMQ: Is there anything specific about USM - other than
the obvious talent gap - you think the Gators can exploit?

Florida can exploit two things:

1. The secondary. Tasty and full of holes, it's angel food cake for Chris Leak and the wideouts. Most of the indications from practice have been a greater reliance on the deep ball, a trend beginning with the Outback Bowl and continuing through this season. You'll see at least five good ones, with at least three going to Dallas Baker, identifiable as the one with arms hanging to his knees with the hands of a gecko. He's not a bad player, from what we hear.

Since we think Florida's run offense will be as anemic against you as it was against every other opponent of substance, we'll call for a ton of passing early to attempt to knock the will out of USM's skull in abrupt, rude fashion. If that doesn't work, well, we'll be hearing from Rece, most likely.

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Hidden indicator of USM success: Rece Davis face time

2. The O-line. This says less about USM's O-line and more about Florida's d-line, which if as good as advertised should be making four-man clothesline runs into the backfield all night. Fear Scoop.

SMQ: Given the planned karaoke-related debauchery of the EDSBS tailgate in Atlanta, how much of this game are you planning to even watch?

Orson: All of it. The tailgating will be work, so we'll be sticking to one form of alcohol only. (At EDSBS, this is what passes for "professional discipline.) We'll be able to tailgate a bit, get the all the video footage and schmoozing we'll need, and then retire to the nearest sports bar or even back to the EDSBS lair for the entirety of the game. Festivity's nice, but once the whistle blows it's time to get your Viking on and burninate stuff. Our whistle, regardless of what else is going on in college football, blows at 6 p.m. on Saturday. Everything else is gravy.

SMQ: How will you react if Florida loses?

Orson: Agony. Hair-pulling. The piling of ashes upon the head. The mad thumping of our fist against our chest. It will all happen at once and it will not resemble anything in the neighborhood of pretty. Then we will weep for five minutes before posting a 15,000 word screed about the need to excommunicate Pope Urban stat.

For the sake of the English language, let's all hope that stays in the realm of the hypothetical, shall we?

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ARKANSAS TECH: NOT MUCH TO SAY WHEN YOU'RE HIGH ABOVE THE MUCKY-MUCK

2006-08-27T22:57:00.000-07:00

ARKANSAS TECH: NOT MUCH TO SAY WHEN YOU'RE HIGH ABOVE THE MUCKY-MUCK
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A quick tidbit discovered while cruising the news after watching an apparently tranquilized Ed Orgeron literally grunt his way through the preseason edition of "The O Show" with a terrified co-host in the Ole Miss locker room (though the Orgeron did not appear, unfortunately, in any commercials throughout the half-hour, the otherwise inept production did pull out the 'wow' factor with one stunning blonde "reporter" at the Rebels' summer camp for women, whose wooden voice overs could have been salvaged if she were onscreen for more than six seconds), where SMQ caught a story on the ESPN news wire with the headline:

Wonder Boys' quarterbacks must make up for lost time

Is this a story about an intramural team? No! It was referencing the offseason misfortunes of two injured quarterbacks at Arkansas Tech, which does actually field a Division II football team officially dubbed "Wonder Boys." The rest of Arkansas Tech's male teams are also known as "Wonder Boys," though the women's teams - which outnumber the men's, six-five, in a blatant violation of Title IX - are the "Golden Suns." In which galaxy does there exist a golden sun?

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Wonder Boys: Misguided attempt to recruit a confused and girlishly attracted Katie Holmes? Probably worth the effort

Only a day earlier, the wire service had picked up this headline:

Boll Weevils heavy underdogs again this year

Due to the eradication efforts of the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service of the United States Department of Agriculture, SMQ should think so.

Actually, this article was previewing - seriously - last Saturday's matchup between the aforementioned Boll Weevils of Arkansas-Monticello and the favored triple option attack of the Southern Arkansas Muleriders. The game was the first of this college football season, and was scheduled to be played at a high school stadium because "a new turf installation project at the Muleriders' Wilkins Stadium isn't expected to be finished in time." Arkansas-Monticello's site is reporting an 18-15, comeback Mulerider victory, a "heartbreaker" for the scrappy Weevils, who allowed the winning touchdown pass with just 1:09 left in the game. No attendance estimate was available.

At any rate, since SMQ considers 'Razorbacks' second only to 'Gamecocks' in the annals of exceedingly cool regional mascots, he can only surmise the state's Depression Era mascot-assigning panel used up its entire cache of style points on its flagship school. Either that or they just pulled up to the edge of the respective campuses and named the teams the first thing they saw there. Which still would not explain "Wonder Boys," as if anything possibly could.

UPDATE
Wikipedia, trusty as ever, comes up with an answer too strange to be made up (not that anything on Wikipedia could ever be made up, of course):

In 1919, Arkansas Tech's football team played what is now Arkansas State University, which claimed to hold a mythical state football title and were heavily favored to win the game. However, Tech won the game on the shoulders of John Tucker, a student at Tech at the time, who returned two punts for touchdowns and kicked two extra points. The sportswriter for the Arkansas Gazette referred to the team as "a bunch of Wonder Boys." Tech's men's athletic teams have been known as the Wonder Boys ever since, and Tucker was labeled as "The Original Wonder Boy."

Tired of being referred to as the "Wonderettes," the female athletes of Arkansas Tech held a contest in the spring of 1975 to determine what their new mascot would be. Several names were nominated, but in the end, the athletes selected Golden Suns as their new mascot.

So there you go.

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2006 PREVIEW, QUICKLY: THE BIG XII

2006-08-27T12:55:00.000-07:00

2006 PREVIEW, QUICKLY: THE BIG XII
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Five seasons out of six this decade have featured a Big XII team in the mythical championship game, a testament to the talent concentrated in its top programs, and the monopoly they seem to have on it compared to mostly far-behind underlings, always on the brink of a losing season: it's still Texas, Oklahoma, and everyone else.

In 2005, of course, it was just Texas and everybody else, and the deflation of the initial hype surrounding the Sooners following the dismissal of their starting quarterback might be an indication it will be again. Surely no team from the North will seriously contend. Colorado's won four of the last five division crowns, the past three of those by teams that barely broke even in the conference, and the last two by teams that were outscored over the course of the season. The void left by the demise of Kansas State and Nebraska as counterweights to Oklahoma and Texas will only be replaced anytime soon, it appears, by a resurgent Nebraska program - if it is, in fact, resurgent, and not merely mired in the division's race to December destruction.

Underlying Literary Themes in the Big XII
The Development and Image of the Hero - Colt McCoy is an actual hero, with the lone ridin', gunslingin' name to boot, but will never come anywhere the shine Vince Young emitted on the field. If the young quarterback is going to earn the spotlight any time soon, it'll be for qualities like "maturity" and "unselfishness" in the course of making the easy plays, maybe one here and there in a jam and not screwing up handoffs before one of UT's ridiculous stable of backs can get his talented hands on it. Otherwise, the cameras will be picking up a kid who's "flustered" and "trying to do too much." Which is still preferable to a true freshman.

Individuality/ The Individual in Society (Society and a person's inner nature are always at war) - SMQ's favorite coach is Mike Leach, who's so out of place in the contemporary society of college football, his own fans have begun dubbing him "TSO" - The Strange One. In a culture of coach-as-politician, Leach is a savant, something like a pizza delivery boy thrown into the general's chair, making it up as he goes with the rulebook but no indoctrination as to how to go about it. In that sense, there's a correlation with Leach's reported fascination with pirates, vikings and Deadwood, all operating in violent, lawless societies that have to form their own rules for survival, some of which confuse or appall mainstream culture. And also with Donald Trump.

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Swing your sword, Coach. Swing your sword.

Religion and Faith - Nobody else thought Bill Callahan's attempted shift to the dreaded "West Coast" of pro-style quick passing was all that great an idea, given Nebraska's historical success at, affection for, and recruiting emphasis on, running over people. It didn't help that the team continued to average almost five yards per carry in 2004, while getting itself intercepted out of a bowl game for the first time in many decades. Converts may have begun milling around the icon of Bill Walsh only after Zac Taylor threw for 392 and creamed Colorado on the road, then snuck by Michigan in a less explosive but more run-friendly, affirming year-end win. And last week, Callahan added his greatest convert in deposed Arizona State quarterback Sam Keller, who will bring instant legitimacy to the 2007 passing attack, when all of the skill guys are scheduled to return. If he comes out of this fall with ten wins - or at least a trip to the conference championship - the congregation's going to start bursting at the seams for the long-awaited return ascension to mythical title speculation.

SMQ Must Justify...
The respective trajectories of Texas Tech and Texas A&M under their current administrations is pretty clear: Raiders hot, Aggies cold. Other than the one guy who voted for A&M in his BlogPoll ballot, SMQ's not aware of anyone besides his own self going with TAMU over Tech.

Key backfield and line components are back from a very good, deep, underrated running game at A&M that averaged 5.7 a carry, and peaked against Oklahoma and Texas to close the season. So, of course, is 75 percent of the secondary that gave up more passing yards per game than any other, anywhere - this will not, however, have an effect on the four automatic wins (The Citadel, Louisiana-Lafayette, Army and Louisiana Tech) to open the season.

Texas Tech benefited from a similarly snuggly soft schedule to hit the elusive ten-win, top 20 peak last year, and could potentially match that again with more than 200 catches returning and allegedly the most talented quarterback yet (either Graham Harrell or the pugilistic Chris Todd) joining TSO's unstoppable pitch-and-toss attack. But: the Raiders' are a team that slumps a bit away from home (16-22 on the road under Leach), meaning an extra loss or two, or more, on top of the assumed Texas-Oklahoma defeats from among the much stiffer road slate of TCU, UTEP, Texas A&M, Colorado and Iowa State is not at all a reach.

The Aggies' struggles on the road are even more severe (3-12 under Franchione), but this makes it all the more favorable for them that Tech, Missouri, Oklahoma and Nebraska all come to College Station. So this is a schedule pick: SMQ says TAMU should be favored in at least eight of its first nine games before the November gauntlet, the same ratio Tech had against even softer softies in '05, and it didn't much slow voters from jumping on that bandwagon (the Raiders were 10th at 6-0 when they were dropped by Texas, and back up to No. 13 when they fell to Oklahoma State three weeks later).

Most Likely To Prove SMQ Wrong
If it finds anything in the general size and weight of a running game, Iowa State could finally break on through to the championship game. We've all been waiting for that next step since the Seneca Wallace Era, and this is the best personnel Dan McCarney's had to work with in any era of his extended tenure here. Bret Meyer can throw; Todd Blythe, Austin Flynn and Jon Davis can catch; the offensive line is a seniors' club; Brent Curvey is a productive tackle (61 tackles, 6.5 sacks) who led the defense's holding opponents to 3.0 per carry.

In the same breath, the offense produced just 2.7 a carry, only improved upon a little by a healthy Stevie Hicks, and this held against terrible teams like Army, Baylor and even Illinois State. And with chances to lock up the division in the season finale the last two years, ISU's let Kansas and Missouri sneak away with overtime wins that handed the title to bearly-treading-water Colorado. Until it corrects those trends - both toughness issues - and its secondary, while we're at it, Iowa State's just average or slightly below.

If One Thing Is Certain...
Harrell or Todd will throw for 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. Or whoever's back there for Texas Tech. That's a conservative estimate, too. We're used to rent-a-fifth-year-senior slingers at Tech, but Leach's options this year mean he'll be starting his youngest passer since sophomore Kilff Kingsbury in his first season in 2000, but this isn't going to be an issue. The entire offensive line and receiving corps are back in full force.

Alternate Endings
SMQ's suggested before Nebraska could be one the country's leading mythical title shockers, and along with that - especially with the upset-friendly nature of the championship game - goes the outside chance of a league title. Texas A&M reserves the right to self-destruct at all times. The middle of the pack can go in any conceivable order; on paper, Colorado is a descending team SMQ has placed at six for potentially flimsy reasons. And assuming Baylor is about the equal of Oklahoma State and possibly Kansas, the Bears are only a couple upsets from climbing into the middle of the pack themselves for the first time since the league was formed.

Projected Order of Finish (SMQ's BlogPoll Ranking)
This is not a power poll...

1. Texas (#7)
Outside of the quarterback, this team is a cinch for number one across the board. Redshirt freshmen, though, don't win mythical championships; this is a hard, fast rule until it's broken. Rookie quarterbacks don't win Super Bowls, either. But McCoy's going to have as good a shot as anybody ever has.
2. Oklahoma (#12)
Adrian Peterson may be prepared to shoulder an historic responsibility, but the main benefit here is an all-around dominating front seven on defense. Drop off from Rhett Bomar to Paul Thompson or not, the passing game and offensive line are incriminating evidence against a full Sooner resurgence. Peterson will not defeat Texas and Oregon on his own.
3. Nebraska (#16)
More unyielding run defense here, with a lot of untapped potential on offense. The Huskers' ironic weakness is the offensive line, which allowed Zac Taylor to be bludgeoned 3.2 times per game and failing to produce enough space for a four-yard-per-carry average in any game until the bowl, which should make Tom Osborne and anyone who remembers the mid-nineties Nebraska teams weep. The new running backs, at least - Malon Lucky and Kenny Wilson - are about as highly-rated a pair as they come. Missing Oklahoma and getting Texas at home is a positive; psychologically, much probably rides on the competiveness displayed in the September trip to USC.
4. Texas A&M
Another losing season - which would be Franchione's third in four years, and certainly his last here - is very unlikely because of the schedule. But also consider the competitive season finales against Oklahoma and Texas, two games in which the offense ran wild and was in a position to win late, as a sign of better fortune to come. Highly-touted quarterback Stephen McGee has played a little and ought to be into a reasonable rhythm by November.
5. Texas Tech
The quarterback is supposed to be a bigger-armed version than we've seen from Tech before, but SMQ's not sure what this means in terms of production. Could Matt Leinart come in here and throw for more yards or touchdowns? The key here's going to be showing more consistency on defense, against the run and especially in the pass rush (just 18 sacks in '05, none against a respectable line).
6. Colorado
One of the riskiest picks, because, even with four of the past five division titles and a pretty solid defensive core returning, a second place finish in the North is dependent entirely on self-help Zen master/OMG total techno whiz kid Dan Hawkins' influence on the offense. Running game might work, but who throws, and to who?
7. Iowa State
Ought to scare everybody to death with the talked-up skill guys, but there would be worse bets than taking ISU's opponent in all five of the Cyclones' road games. That would mean beating Nebraska and Texas Tech (and let's not completely discount Toledo) at home to finish in the black again.
8. Kansas State
Elevated by the potentially rejuvenating effects of a new coach and a huge number of returning starters. Depressed by a weird quarterback situation that's been shuffled, diced, sliced, tossed about and reconfigured a couple time since Ell Roberson graduated, to the ultimate ascension of underwhelming senior Dylan Meier or true freshman Josh Freeman in the wake of transfers by last year's starting combo, Allan Evridge and Allen Webb, and by some guy named Kevin Lopina. Also gave up 669 yards passing in one game, to Texas Tech, of course, but was not really so bad against the pass otherwise.
9. Missouri
A lot of starters are returning - judging from the tackle numbers, every defensive player on the roster was in the rotation last year - but none of them accounted for 3,600 total yards and 29 touchdowns. If Mizzou could barely break even over four years of a guy like Brad Smith running the show, why should it get the benefit of the doubt now that he's gone? Both guys vying to replace him, coincidentally, are named 'Chase,' and that's kind of annoying. Well, no, very annoying.
10. Kansas
Carried into a second bowl in three years in '05 by a legitimately stout, underrated defense that was decimated by graduation. That leaves the low-octane offense to make up the difference with a new quarterback, probably a redshirt freshman. Still too-far behind, talent-wise.
11. Oklahoma State
The offense has a chance, but sweet lord, the defense allowed 300 yards rushing on four different occasions. Not much upside to that, or to a quarterback situation featuring two guys with completion percentages in the 40s; the only guy on the plus side of that mark last year, Donovan Woods, moved to free safety. This indicates something very bad about both of these positions, though SMQ knows not exactly what.
12. Baylor
The Bears showed some fight by starting 4-1, including taking Texas A&M to overtime (again) and stunned Iowa State, had a couple of scores called back that could have ended an upset of Texas Tech, and closed another ultimately dismal year by beating Oklahoma State. If Phil Steele is to be believed, quarterback Shawn Bell is the underappreciated, inexplicably benched lynchpin of a bowl run, and the numbers indicate this could be the case. It's also the case, though, that BU was 2-6 in the league and is more or less bereft of serious weaponry sufficient to hack it to the postseason, especially when Washington State and TCU are waiting outside of conference play.

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2006 PREVIEW, QUICKLY: THE BIG TEN

2006-08-27T08:14:00.000-07:00

2006 PREVIEW, QUICKLY: THE BIG TEN
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The Big "Ten" presumptively separates this season, as in the past, into two tiers of quality, the first represented by legitimate championship contenders (Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa) and the other by potential sleepers with a chance to knock off one of the favorites, but less opportunity to actually replace one (Penn State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan State). The sheer quantity of quality teams here is going to drive records from the superlative to the middle - again: seven teams broke even in league play for the third consecutive season last year, also the third straight year no team has navigated the league without a loss. Among the so-called power conferences, only the ACC approaches such parity by the same measures during that span.

Beating up on each other, as often noted regarding the dog-eat-dog nature of the SEC, diminishes the opportunities for a top team to make it the distance unblemished, as only Penn State (1994), Michigan (1991 and 1997), Iowa (2002) and Ohio State (2002) have managed since 1990. If Ohio State, preseason national favorite in the AP, Coaches and Blog polls, is going to be the sixth addition to that list, it's going to owe it in part to providence. Or Woody Hayes.

Underlying Literary Themes in the Big Ten
Innocence and Experience - Certainly few teams have ever been deemed the national preseason favorite with nine starters removed from probably the country's best defense, one that bid adieu to three of the NFL's first 18 draft picks, three others in the first four rounds and another first-team all-conference selection and must now field an entirely new back seven. Few such contenders, though, have also returned the collective firepower that Ohio State welcomes back on offense, which itself lost two first round picks (Santonio Holmes and Nick Mangold) from the group that averaged more than 38 points over its last seven games, all wins - four of them against winners, though only one (Michigan) against a better-than-average defense. Troy Smith and Ted Ginn Jr. seem to have only scratched the surface of their potential otherwordliness, which - even if Ginn displays some of the go-to chops he's sorely lacked to date - will not necessarily manifeset itself in greater production within the generally conservative philosophy that feeds the ball to Antonio Pittman - and surely also super recruit Chris Wells - 25-30 times a game. But it should outscore at least ten teams out of twelve, if not better, depending on the trajectory of the defense's coming-of-age.

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Do you know Marcus Freeman? If you don't by October, the Buckeyes are in trouble

Evolution and Change - The Big Ten isn't far removed from its reputation as a conference full of tough, slow, grinding sorts of teams playing on skin-ripping terrain consisting of dirt and ice and beating each other into submission in World War I-like battles of attrition. Then comes the spread at Purdue, and the spread option at Northwestern, and within the decade the league's got ten teams averaging more than four touchdowns a game, eight teams giving up more than 380 yards and zero teams allowing under 200 yards passing. Minnesota and Penn State were the only teams to average more rushing yards than passing. Northwestern tied for third place while allowing 6.2 yards per play. More than half the teams finished with double-digit interception totals; all had double-digit touchdowns passing. Eight of the league's top ten passers return for '06, which means the football equivalent of guerilla war tactics - SMQ can't even think of what strategic innovation would suffice to carry on this analogy - are the next refuge for overmatched defenses.

The Individual in Society (A person's identity is determined by place in society) - Laurence Maroney has departed to further excite fans of the New England Patriots, Gary Russell to behave in a lackadaisical fashion towards academics at a random junior college, and subsequently a little uncertainty exists regarding the fate of presumptive replacements Amir Pinnix and Brylee Callender: only one 1,000-yard performance, or two? This pending their pledging to the Gophers' absurd fraternity of running backs, whic has produced ten 1,000-yard rushing performances in seven years, a string from Chris Darkins to Thomas Hamner to Tellis Redmon, Terry Jackson II and Marion Barber III before Maroney and Russell. The machine-like offensive line, now absent Greg Eslinger and Mark Setterstrom, is nevertheless conducive to this ongoing feat; returning starter numbers may officially read "2" up front, referencing center Tony Brinkhaus and tackle Steve Shidell, but guard Tyson Swaggert and Joe Ainslie are seniors with more than four good years of solid starting/playing time between them. Massive (6-6, 270) all-Big Ten tight end Matt Spaeth may as well be a part of that group, too, all of which leads to much adulation for Pinnix (467 yards, at 6.0 a pop, as a junior) or welcome JUCO transfer Callender, or both.

Same deal at Wisconsin: the Badgers never pulled the "double-decker" trick of two 1,000-yard guys Minnesota's managed three straight seasons (SMQ's spotting Maroney the 10 yards he lacks from 2003), but the string of star backs trotted out by Barry Alvarez was at least as impressive, and sometimes - as will have to be the case this year for Alvarez's replacement, Bret Bielema - completley unexpected, as when true freshmen Ron Dayne and Anthony Davis and transfer Brian Calhoun, in 1996, 2001 and 2005, respectively, exploded all over unsuspecting upper Midwestern defenses (even if, as is true with Minnesota, too, this didn't happen so frequently against better units). Jamil Walker, P.J. Hill ("Powerful," notes Phil Steele) and a bunch of other current no-names will be familiar to viewers of the second rate, 11 a.m. ESPN2 games "announced" by Chris Spielman shortly, and everyone else soon after.

SMQ Must Justify...
Penn State and Wisconsin finished 12-4 in-conference, won January bowls and had top ten seasons. Purdue lost its first five league games, did not beat a winning team and had its first losing season since the early days of the Tiller Era. Including double-digit losses to the aforementioned squads represented by predatory cartoon mammals. Obviously, the Boilermakers are going to finish on top of this presumably middle-class triumverate. As much as Penn State fans believe in the talents of Anthony Morelli, an 80 percent new offensive line and similarly inexperienced starters on the D-line and in the secondary, PSU's recent record is one of mediocre-to-poor program with the occasional uplift from a long-abused senior class, and one revelation (Larry Johnson, Michael Robinson) in particular; the results of four of its six efforts this decade have come down on the wrong side of the ledger. The rockin' linebackers and skill guys - where, as at Ohio State, there's a better-than-adequate workhorse back and very fast receivers who have not established themselves yet as consistent weapons - are going to keep the Lions out of four/five-win purgatory, but playing at Notre Dame, at Ohio State, at Purdue, at Wisconsin, along with Michigan in town, means they also will not exceed eight wins again, and might be lucky to get there. Whereas Purdue has established itself as a solid bet to win seven in years of non-cataclysmic turnover, and returns all the surrounding elements - a good collection of receivers and a virtually the whole of a veteran line that held opponents to a sensational nine sacks in all of 2005 - to give Curtis Painter the chance to mature into a reliable passer before being pulled at midseason for complete noob Keith Smith. Which is maybe not such a convincing argument. But at least give Purdue the edge of playing Penn State and Wisconsin at home and - though SMQ can't believe he's going to fall for this again, after naming an entire rule based on the hype of Purdue's '05 schedule - missing Ohio State and Michigan again entirely. This program is not incompetent enough to let that fortune pass a second year without taking some meager advantage.

Most Likely To Prove SMQ Wrong
Which brings us back to the plucky Badgers, a team SMQ has somewhat written off due to the departure of astonishingly successful (.603 winning percentage, three conference championships in 15 years at a previously floundering program) Barry Alvarez to direct athletics and serve among the shortest-lived TV crew on record. It's tempting to underestimate a young, first-time head coach inheriting a team with some lingering problems on the offensive line (37 sacks allowed last year) and defense in general (418 yards allowed per game, at 4.6 yards per carry) , with something like 35 career touches among the returning backs, and basically none by the receivers. Last year's team also pulled out close games with the aid of a +13 turnover ratio, never falling on the negative side of that number, any repeat of which would defy reasonable probability.

And yet: there's the inevitable running back of doom (or at least of infinite frustration, as far as opponents are concerned) waiting in the wings. John Stocco, incredibly, is ~~20-5~~ 19-6 as a starter. The defensive line, poor as it was against the run, is intact, with two highly-recuited/no-longer-spring-chicken tackles and some pass rush ability. All just waiting, wanting, wishing to make SMQ look like a fool for placing Wisconsin all the way down at seventh.

If One Thing Is Certain...
Michigan State will suffer a debilitating setback that will wreck its season. Sooner or later. This does not mean the first loss, if the first loss is an "acceptable" one (i.e. overtime at Michigan last season), but a defeat in some scarring psychological fashion on the order of the self-inflicted ten-point swing that cost the Ohio State game at home last year. If it's sooner - say, Pittsburgh or, god forbid, Illinois in September, a la the Rutgers loss in 2004 - MSU will probably come out of the tailspin in time for a November bowl run. If it's later, like Northwestern or Indiana, early hopes will fade. It's a schizophrenic race to 6-6 either way.

Alternate Endings
In a season wide-open enough to result in non-ironic number one and number two votes for Cal, it's a little surprising no voter was willing to pull the trigger in the top spot on Iowa, whose veteran quarterback, defensive line and recent success make it an attractive "sleeper" pick, and legitimate contender to win the league over the near-unanimous favorite, Ohio State. Spots four through eight can sensibly be shuffled any and every which way, and although SMQ would love to give underdog nods to Northwesterm, which lost its coach in a sudden, tragic medical calamity, or Indiana, whose coach mentored Randy Walker and himself had surgery to remove a brain tumor, the large number of returnees at Illinois probably makes it and Coach Redacted most likely among the bottom three to crash a bowl game.

Projected Order of Finish (SMQ's BlogPoll Ranking)
This is not a power poll...

1. Ohio State (#3)
The favorite in every game, by SMQ's reckoning, the September trip to Iowa actually being the toughest to get around, given the likely devastating effects of Texas' quarterback youth at that early stage. If there's a loss in there - again, those nine new defensive starters say there must be - that's probably it. The defense should be in some semblance of adequate form by Michigan time.
2. Michigan (#5)
On paper, the most complete team in the conference, and one of the most balanced in the country. Scared SMQ away from a number one pick by the collective qualms Mike Hart's injury problems, two new defensive tackles anchoring a gradually slipping run defense, Chad Henne's progression and Jim Tressel/Troy Smith's general ownership of the Wolverine defense. All but the last are small issues, but they add up.
3. Iowa (#13)
Another pretty good-looking team on paper, but hampered by a pair of new corners, the loss of the nation's busiest (and longest-running) linebacker combo and a lack of quality options for Drew Tate at receiver. May have the best chance of beating OSU, but got lit up in Columbus in '05, and SMQ's not willing to pull the trigger on that prediction. Like Michigan, last year's somewhat misleading five-loss total shouldn't be discarded entirely, but it also shouldn't surprise anyone if the Hawkeyes wind up in one of the big money games.
4. Purdue (#25)
The jury's out on Curtis Painter, but in general, the receivers are a good group and the passing game seems to be back on track the past two seasons after a couple down years. The defense graduated an awful lot, but regressed so much in '05 that even seven or so new guys figure to improve the results. No better than last year on paper, but too healthy to finish below .500 again.
5. Penn State
A mix of old and new means a "reversion to the mean" year for the sort-of rebuilding Lions, the trick being to figure out what the mean here is. If the program's not in bad enough shape to consistently go 3-8, or in good enough shape to consistently go 11-1, which are PSU's most recent rercords, then 7-5 or 8-4 against a tough schedule seems about right. Only the tiniest sliver of a hair behind Purdue.
6. Michigan State
Given they'll beat Notre Dame on the road one week and go down in flames to Northwestern the next, or vice versa, and there is no rational method to determine which of these outcomes is pending, the Spartans are in the dead-middle until further notice. All bets are off if Matt Trannon finally reincarnates Plaxico Burress, or is mutilated and reassembled into a servicable kicker.

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If he can handle basketball, too, why not try field goals?

7. Wisconsin
See above for all the reasons this is a stupid pick. But Bielema's going to have to earn automatic top four status in this league on his own with a seemingly weapon-less offense before SMQ overlooks the Badgers' deficiencies on defense.
8. Minnesota
No reason to panic or anything, but does Bryan Cupito emerge from the dreadlocked shadows of Laurence Maroney as a cool, capable senior leader at quarterback, or collapse in the improbable event his new rushing crutch doesn't measure up? Makes no difference if the defense is more or less smacked around for the umpteenth consecutive year.
9. Northwestern
Inevitably slotted at ninth with quarterback-for-life Brett Basanez's graduation and the precarious talent gap with the other perpetual middle-of-the-packers, but with Randy Walker, it was ninth with a shot at fifth by way of the usual tricks (along with the more conventional wiles of the few legitimate talents, like RB Tyrell Sutton). Without him, and with instead the uncertainty inherent to the ad hoc ascension of the country's youngest head coach, it's ninth and look out below.
10. Illinois
Not at all competitive against anyone last year, including Indiana. But almost all those guys are back!
11. Indiana
Also not in serious contention to win a conference game outside of Illinois, which it visits with less returning, um, talent.

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MISSISSIPPI IS NUMBER ONE!

2006-08-25T08:42:00.000-07:00

MISSISSIPPI IS NUMBER ONE!
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And in something other than poverty, obesity and teen pregnancy rate! (Though we're still really good at being poor, fat and knocked up, too).

But the most recent distinction is from something called "USA Football," an NFL creation chaired by Congressman/ex-quarterback Jack Kemp described as "a non-profit organization whose aim is to promote the growth of youth and amateur football," which dubs the Magnolia State "the nation's top football state." A few native star players - Deuce McAllister and Archie Manning, L.C. Greenwood and Hugh Green, namely, a contingent that barely scratches the surface of a tradition that also includes Jerry Rice, Walter Payton, Brett Favre, Ray Guy, Bulldog Turner, Lem Barney, Deacon Jones and Lance Alworth, for starters - will join in presenting "The Governor's Cup" to Haley Barbour to commemorate the honor.

The criteria, according to the organization itself:

The award salutes Mississippi as the nation’s top football state following a study conducted by The Wharton Spots Business Initiative at the University of Pennsylvania. The project encapsulated a variety of per capita criteria including, the percentages of collegiate and professional football fans, number of NFL players who hail from the state, percentage of high school football players in the state and percentage of high school players who have letters-of-intent to play for NCAA Division I-A colleges and universities.

The rest of the top 10 states based on the USA Football formula: Georgia, Louisiana, Ohio, Alabama, Texas, Virginia, South Carolina, Kansas and Florida.

Fisher DeBerry would crassly and inappropriately note that Mississippi is the state with the highest per capita population of "Afro-Americans," and that five of the other "top ten football states" - Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama and Virginia - are 2, 3, 4, 6 and 9 in per capita black population. But we know that - although the evident and shameful poverty, education and health care rates in these states are frequently and correctly tied with their even more shameful history of discrimination - any suggestion that race is an indicator of athletic success in our society, even from a cultural perspective, cannot be tolerated.

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STILL OVERRATED: LSU'S TIGER STADIUM AS "BEST HOMEFIELD ADVANTAGE"

2006-08-24T10:18:00.000-07:00

STILL OVERRATED: LSU'S TIGER STADIUM AS "BEST HOMEFIELD ADVANTAGE"
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Kyle at Dawg Sports reports the results of his site's latest poll, gauging responders' opinion of which SEC team's on-campus stadium affords the greatest home field advantage. The winner, not surprisingly, was the much-hyped "Death Valley," LSU's Tiger Stadium. Florida's Ben Hill Griffin comes in second, Georgia's Sanford Stadium third. Sites of numerous atrocities at Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Mississippi State are not listed and, therefore - along with Vaught-Hemingway at Ole Miss, which was listed - received no votes as the stadium bestowing the greatest advantage upon its team.

SMQ has addressed the issue of homefield advantage in the SEC before, specifically targeting the notion of LSU as one of the toughest places to play after statements to such effect by Bob Davie prior to the Tigers' home collapse against Tennessee last September, and found the evidence in its favor lacking. Tiger Stadium is, indeed, a tough place to play, but this is primarily due to the fact LSU is tough to play anywhere, period; the relative advantage of playing in Baton Rouge, as opposed to an opponents' home or a neutral site, is nothing to sneeze at, as shown below, but, as also demonstrated, is not an outsized advantage in any sense, even in the SEC.

These numbers are updated from last year's exercise, and again for fairness and simplicity's sake include only SEC games, so results against Florida States, Clemsons or Georgia Techs are not reflected.

Home Records in SEC Games Since 1998
1. Georgia: 23-6 (.793)
2. Florida: 22-6 (.786)
3. Tennessee: 23-9 (.719)
4. LSU: Home, 21-11 (.656)
T5. Auburn: Home, 20-12 (.625)
T5. Arkansas: Home, 20-12 (.625)
7. Alabama: Home, 19-13 (.594)
T8. Mississippi State: Home, 17-15 (.531)
T8. Ole Miss: Home, 17-15 (.531)
10. South Carolina: Home, 13-19 (.406)
11. Kentucky: Home, 9-23 (.281)
12. Vanderbilt: Home, 4-28 (.125)

This is a tad misleading, as Georgia's string of futility against Florida, entirely on neutral ground, doesn't reflect on its record at Sanford Stadium. And, again, the best teams are going to have the best records regardless of where they play. The top home teams, not surprisingly, are also the top road teams:

Road/Neutral Records in SEC Games since 1998
1. Tennessee: 25-10 (.714)
2. Florida: 27-11 (.711)
3. Georgia: 24-14 (.641)
4. Auburn: 21-13 (.618)
5. LSU: 19-16 (.543)
6. Alabama: 17-16 (.515)
7. Ole Miss: 13-19 (.406)
8. South Carolina: 11-21 (.344)
9. Arkansas: 11-22 (.333)
10. Kentucky: 7-25 (.219)
11. Vanderbilt: 5-27 (.156)
12. Mississippi State: 5-28 (.152)

If we're talking advantage ("to benefit; gain; profit"), though, we have to find the benefit each program has gained from being at home. Every team in the SEC but one, Vanderbilt, has a "home field advantage" in the sense it's home winning percentage is better than it's road winning percentage. The "advantage" of playing at home, then, as opposed to anywhere else, can be judged by comparing the above records and measuring the difference:

Advantage of Home Record vs. Road Record in SEC Games Since 1998
1. Mississippi State: +.381
2. Arkansas: +.292
3. Georgia: +.152
4. Ole Miss: +.125
5. LSU: +.113
6. Alabama: +.079
7. Florida: +.075
T8. South Carolina: +.062
T8. Kentucky: +.062
10. Auburn: +.007
11. Tennessee: +.005
12. Vanderbilt: -.031

Tennessee's stadium holds more people than those of Arkansas and Mississippi State combined, yet the Razorbacks and Bulldogs, abysmal road teams by any standard, recently are gaining significantly more from playing in friendly confines. Nobody will ever fear visiting Scott Field, where State was 1-3 in-conference last year, and it wasn't even on Kyle's list, but 38 percent is a huge advantage; apparently, over the past eight years of SEC play, the rickety old place has meant more to its team than any other stadium in the conference. It was, after all, the site of the league's most inexplicable upset of the past decade, when the totally ineptBulldogs knocked off Florida there in 2004. On the road, State is about as hopeless as possible, but at home, they're elevated to "average," which is a big jump.

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The real "Death Valley"?

Note: this does not mean it's the "toughest place to play" (that distinction, in SMQ's mind, would go to Florida's Swamp), because when you finish 1-7, and the one win is at home, that represents a very large 25 percent advantage without making the place a "tough" one to visit. Still, though, it's an advantage; compared to MSU's performance on the road and at neutral sites, opponents fare worse travelling to Starkville than to any other league venue.

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EXILED KELLER FINDS REFUGE, PLANS OPPOSITION REGIME IN NEBRASKA

2006-08-24T08:52:00.000-07:00

EXILED KELLER FINDS REFUGE, PLANS OPPOSITION REGIME IN NEBRASKA
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Lincoln's Journal Star trumpets deposed Arizona State quarterback Sam Keller's official commit to transfer northward to Nebraska this morning, giving salt-of-the-earth fans of the already-rising 'Huskers more reason to embrace Bill Callahan's once-scorned 21st Century West Coast madness in 2007. Without looking, SMQ guesses Big Sam has a good shot at breaking NU's career passing records in a single season, especially a season that includes an extra regular season game and an expected appearance in the Big XII Championship Game.

And, if we're really, really lucky, a definitive postseason rumble with extreme malice against Rudy Carpenter's fledgling People's Republic of Arizona State.

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2006 PREVIEW: THE ACC

2006-08-23T13:23:00.000-07:00

2006 PREVIEW, QUICKLY: THE ACC
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Emblematic of the merger-happy, rich-get-richer ethos that drove its acquisition of the Big East's bellweathers, Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College, three years ago, the ACC has instead suffered a surprising bout of mediocrity from consecutive champions with seven combined losses between them at season's end, and not a whiff of a mythical championship appearance. Far from a "super league," its top ten contenders are now regarded as such mainly because the competition just below is in no position to stop them.

Yet SMQ ranks six ACC teams in his top 25, another of his own moves even he considers suspect. Consider it a compliment to one of the deepest, most parity-driven conferences in the country, entering this season with 11 very serious postseason contenders and two very tenuous favorites. This is a truly jumbled bunch; August projections are always consumed with salt granules, but particularly so those below.

UNDERLYING LITERARY THEMES IN THE ACC
Choices and Possibilities - John Bunting has a quarterback with a full season of starting experience - one in which said starter completed half his passes, threw 19 interceptions in 11 games and was run out of town following his team's first losing season in four decades. The other is a redshirt freshman with no experience of any kind. Certainly Bunting has a choice between Joe Dailey, more suited to an offense that can use his running ability than Bill Callahan's fledgling West Coast death trap at Nebraska, and Cam Sexton, a newbie coming off an '05 ankle injury, but the possibilities with either of these young men guiding an attack that averaged under three yards per carry last year are probably fairly limited.

Irony/Man vs. God (God mocks the individual and tortures him or her for presuming to be great) - For four years, Georgia Tech has surprised and confounded, tossed about like Odysseus on Poseidon's seas into seemingly verifying upsets of top teams combined with mysterious lapses against the likes of North Carolina, Wake Forest, NC State and Duke. Chan Gailey enters year five armed with his greatest assortment of "technology" - weapons on the order of Calvin Johnson, all-guns-firing speedsters on an aggressive defense, a fourth-year starter at quarterback, all with experience - with which to challenge the Chan Gailey Equilibrium, the cruel fate first stricken against the his proud Dallas Cowboys and that has now doomed each of his Tech teams to seven wins, no more, no less, as if dictated by the maddening whims of a higher power.

Family Conflict (Son replaces father; sibling rivalry) - In his struggle for independence, to - unlike his less competent, needy brother Jeff - make his own name in the world, Tommy Bowden has beaten father Bobby, patron saint of the genteel, politician-like arechtype of Southern coaching, twice now. But his Clemson teams still have never beaten Florida State: in the long run, where it matters, in the standings, where it's Bobby, winner of 12 of 14 conference championships since his 'Noles first rode into the ACC on their war horses in 1992 - including both seasons his team has fallen to Tommy's Tigers - who has ultimately, cagily prevailed as the league's Godfather. Chased by his middling conference record, watching his father's regime slowly weaken and employing the best defensive personnel of his tenure, Tommy's Oedipal impulses crescendo as his opportunities, in the case of further failure, face running dry.

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You want that dadgum hat, Terry, you got to take it, son

Alienation - Duke is a full-fledged member of the league, but, like the brainy, geeky kid who's tossed in lockers, picked last in gym and ruthlessly mocked, they're not a real part of the club. Watch soon for the appropriately-named Devils to don all black uniforms, replace "Hang On, Schloopy" with Skinny Puppy during halftime shows and just not really give a shit about your corporate, conformist "winning" you to fill the abyss in your soul, you know?

SMQ MUST JUSTIFY...
Virginia is a common pick for fifth in the Coastal Division and something like ninth or tenth overall in the league, but SMQ sees the Cavs slipping into another bowl game based on a combination of talent and schedule. Both prospective quarterbacks, for instance, junior Kevin McCabe and senior Notre Dame transfer Christian Olsen, were top 15 recruits at the position, new senior tailback Michael Johnson was top five and D'Brickashaw Ferguson's replacement at left tackle, Eugene Monroe, was the top-ranked offensive line prospect last year, when he played in every game. Marcus Hamilton is apparently one of the best cornerbacks in the country (six picks, seven broken up last year, plus a few tackles and five for loss). UVA also misses Boston College and Clemson from the Atlantic Division, and their schedule sets up a long string of winnable games before a virtually assured three-game losing streak in November. Groh and Co. won't go 9-0 prior to facing Florida State, Miamai and Virginia Tech, but they might win seven.

MOST LIKELY TO PROVE SMQ WRONG
An iffy quarterback situation (Sam Hollenbach threw 15 INTs to 13 touchdowns last year) with no big play potential from the wide outs or backfield - not to mention the graduation of a 5-6 team's two legitimate stars, Vernon Davis and D'Qwell Jackson - has SMQ very, very down on Maryland following its second straight losing season. But with every starting lineman on both sides back and the ability to put together a steady power run-based attack behind big, 900-yard tailback Lance Ball, Ralph Freidgen's play-calling ESP could result in a return to the seven or eight-win plateau. The schedule is no tougher than the ones the overmatched Terps improbably navigated for nine wins a year from 2001-03.

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SMQ doubts the Fridge at his own risk

IF ONE THING IN LIFE IS CERTAIN...
Boston College will qualify for another bowl. The Eagles didn't collect enough votes to appear in the preseason BlogPoll, but B.C. got a vote from SMQ, who scoffed at its prospects in its first season in the ACC, only to watch the Eagles win eight for the fifth straight year, and nine for the third time in four. This program has been on a steady upward trend underTom O'Brien, and even if breaking double digits is a leap too far, it is better all-around on paper entering this season than last season, even without Will Blackmon and Matthias Kiwanuka. Always better than expected.

ALTERNATE ENDINGS
If it screws its head on straight and conquers Nature and Nature's God, the biggest challenge to Miami in the Coastal may actually be the sneaky, veteran Georgia Tech squad, which is in much better position to replace three departed draft picks, rather than the other Tech, which has to replace nine draftees, a number that does not include its entire offensive backfield. On the other side, Boston College and especially Clemson are legit threats to Florida State's universally assumed division title, though both have to play at Tallahassee relatively early in the season, i.e., less chance Clemson will get the benefit of the myriad injuries - like those that destroyed the 'Nole offensive line - that helped it beat Papa Bowden last year. Maryland and NC State may be the reflexive bowl "locks" behind those top three, but the league's biggest middle-of-the-pack sleeper is always-scrappy Wake Forest, which returns in the range of 19 starters.

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH (SMQ's BlogPoll Ranking)
This is not a power poll...

1. Florida State (#8)
Was 5-0 in '05 before half the starting offensive line went kerplop, and still rebounded from its worst-ever month under Bowden to win the conference title game and give No. 3 Penn State hell in the Orange Bowl. The defense is never in question here (it had 44 sacks last year), so given Drew Weatherford's record-breaking debut and full set of returning skill talent, FSU could be favored in every game, so long as it keeps its big guys healthy.
2. Miami (#11)
Much less of a bad-ass after falling to North Carolina, Clemson and Georgia Tech in a two-year span and getting walloped by 37 points against a backup quarterback in a non-New Year's Day bowl. But SMQ goes back to last year's Virginia Tech game, on the road, as an underdog in the cold, where the defense played flawlessly, lights out, and the offense was in steady back-breaking mode, as the model for how good the 'Canes can possibly be. The offense has some issues, but still too talented to be considered anything other than the class of a somewhat sickly-looking Coastal Division.
3. Clemson (#17)
Clemson's had high expectations before and not handled them very well over the past six years. Provided senior Will Proctor gets some time behind a fully intact offensive line, the defense has a chance to be a strength for a change on a potential double-digit winner.
4. Virginia Tech (#19)
Quarterback and offensive line drop the Hokies, who are also punished for a very puffy non-league schedule and no Florida State in-conference. Top-notch speed at receiver and especially linebacker (go ahead and include heavy-hitting safety Aaron Rouse in there) keep Tech from dropping out of the top 20, but only barely.
5. Boston College (#23)
The strong, silent type, with the right combination of collective backfield talent and offensive line experience to continue its usual run-based, balanced attack. The defense held opponents to 2.6 yards a carry, and would have to collapse totally to make that a bad-looking number this year. Seriously: can win the Atlantic Division.
6. Georgia Tech (#24)
A lot of speed here, an awful lot to like in terms of balance, talent, and experience - on paper. But in reality, the Jackets are stuck on that seven-win thing, and there's Notre Dame and Georgia outside of the conference. Middle-of-the-pack until further notice.
7. Virginia
Probably higher here than most guesses would place them, but again, has a good chance to be a part of everyone's top 25 with a few breaks before it hits the brutal triumverate to end the schedule.
8. Wake Forest
SMQ hasn't gone through every lineup to count, but the Deacons could be the nation's most experienced team in terms of returning starters. Everybody is back, with the big exception of Chris Barclay, but his backup, Micah Andrews, ran for 621 on 5.6 yards a carry after putting up 885 as a true freshman in '04. "Everybody" returning, in this case, of course, is not nearly enough to overcome the talent gap with the rest of the league's contenders, but a bottom-rung bowl game is a good likelihood with just a little defensive improvement.

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Flying quarterbacks get the benefit of the doubt

9. North Carolina
Benefits from playing three 2005 bowl teams in its out-of-conference schedule, with an opportunity to beat two of them (Rutgers and South Florida). In the league, not likely to be favored at all (except against Duke), but that hasn't stopped Bunting's teams from pulling a random stunner or two out of its hat before. This sort of finish still is probably not enough to keep Bunting's job, but maybe should be, all things considered.
10. NC State
Dreadful offense + three first round draft picks gone from defense = rebuilding year. Again. Until the Wolfpack get more firepower, or another Philip Rivers, they're doomed to "scrappy, wannabe bowl team" status.
11. Maryland
A risky move to drop the Terps this far, given the surprises they've pulled out of their, um, shells in the past. But Maryland was only an overtime field goal away from dropping its last five game last year, with a turnover prone quarterback who's since lost his top four weapons from a decent passing game. One of those, Vernon Davis, meant a lot, and so did D'Qwell Jackson on defense. Nothing suggests this is a program on the rise.
12. A Gaping Chasm of Talent and Competitiveness
For accuracy's sake, just to accentuate that Maryland, or any other of the above teams, doesn't deserve to be associated with...
13. Duke
Nice guys and all, SMQ supposes, smart, but not so good at the football. Might put a scare into one of the weaker teams, but no legitimate chance to compete.

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ADRIAN PETERSON=BIONIC MAN?

2006-08-23T11:53:00.000-07:00

ADRIAN PETERSON=BIONIC MAN?
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The preseason reaches its nadir in the heat-soaked days just before games begin, as the months-long speculation, mundanity of practice and heat boil over into unattainable projections of grandeur. Sometimes this rears its head in the form of people allowing themselves to be talked into something like, "Anthony Morelli is going to lead us to 11-2" or "Nate Longshore is the next Matt Mauck." Other times, fans may tend to overestimate just how good awesome players we already know really are.

In today's "Ted Ginn could score a touchdown on every play" news, The Oklahoman reports that Bob Stoops believes Adrian Peterson "needs to get a significant number of carries" every game. Which is not news, especially now that Rhett Bomar is gone, even if, as Stoops projected, AP would become the first Bowl Subdivision player to average 30 carries a game since LaDainian Tomlinson, and the first Sooner to ever reach that mark.

The item's noteworthiness goes up a bit, however, depending on your definition of "a significant number of carries":

"That sounds good to me," Peterson said. "I've been working my butt off, getting ready. I'm feeling good. I'm ready to roll."

OK, so how high can Peterson go? Can he approach those [Steve] Owens standards of 35-36 carries per game? Can he approach Allen's NCAA record of 403 carries in 1981? Can he go 55 times in a single game, as Owens did against Oklahoma State in 1969? Can he go 58 times in a single game, as Kansas' Tony Sands did against Missouri in 1991?

"As high as they want me to go," Peterson said. "Give me the ball. I'll run."

But 55?

"I can go 55, 60."

(emphasis is SMQ's)

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Can only handle 20 carries a game without the helmet

Tastily-named writer Berry Tramel is right that "a defense will let [Paul] Thompson throw eight touchdown passes before it will let Peterson get 60 carries," but even he can't help from also admitting, "...Peterson is unbridled. You could do him more harm than good by limiting his carries. He seems capable of most any workload. A physical freak. He's like an old-school pitcher who scoffs at the notion of relief. Bob Gibson in shoulder pads." New offensive coordinator Kevin ~~Thompson~~ Wilson [the quarterback's Thompson, Mr. Careless - ed. I know that, dammit], he of the misdirecting Northwestern spread philosophy, said little to dispel the idea of the Neverending 33 Iso:

"A guy I used to work for said (the ball) wasn't heavy, so feed it to him," Wilson said.
[...]
"Adrian's role, he's a heck of a back. I'm going to feed him that ball as much as I can. But I felt that way since I saw him play his first game. Feed that dude the ball."

SMQ can't help but admire Peterson's confidence and youthful hyperbole run amok in the face of nine-man boxes. Five hundred carries, 2,500 yards, no problem. Gimme the ball. Gimme gimme gimme.

If Oklahoma's smart, they will - and, of course, they are, and they will. But not that much. Throw for the eight touchdowns.

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ASU UDATE: CORNCOB KELLER FLEEING LA REVOLUCION

2006-08-22T08:14:00.000-07:00

ASU UDATE: CORNCOB KELLER FLEEING LA REVOLUCION?
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Quickly updating the bloodless coup out of Tempe that has installed El Presidente Rudy Carpenter at the head of Arizona State's offensive junta:

The Journal Star in Lincoln tosses a kerosene bomb on the fire by citing - though not identifying, or even quoting - reports from "[t]wo sources close to the Nebraska program" that Husker offensive coordinator Jay Norvell had phoned suddenly deposed quarterback Sam Keller about joining on in Lincoln this fall. Keller has his redshirt year and could start where the similarly jaundiced Harrison Beck was once penciled in following ZacTaylor's graduation. Or even, SMQ guesses, if Taylor somehow sticks around, as Keller would represent an upgrade and a perfect fit in Bill Callahan's dreaded pro style, West Coast offense of a thousand quick slants.

No confirmation, though, as one source says "it's not a done deal," and Keller's dad, Mike, a longtime pro football executive and acquaintance of Callahan, said the Huskers are merely on the list. Mike Keller, apparently a "Sports Dad" to only slightly less of a degree than the patron saint of overbearing fathers, Marv Marinovich, has sent "information packages" on his son to 10 other schools.

Getting less play is the stance of Coach Dirk Koetter, who, after axing Sam the role of the puppet parliamentary head under the murderous sway of guerilla paramilitaries (his players), seems to be the only one not assuming the senior slinger is bailing, according the East Valley Tribune:

"Whatever we need to do to accommodate Sam Keller, including coming back to the team, we'll do," Koetter said on Sunday. "If Sam wants to come back and be our No. 2 quarterback, we’ll be glad to have him."

Er, um, OK, coach. But if the decision to humiliate him in this fashion wasn't based on anything that happened on the field, why would you be glad to have him? Such a drastic demotion is a certain sign of off-field trouble, though there hasn't been a hint of an arrest or of academic snafus. No suspensions. Just a sudden, unexplained demotion. The automatic assumption, then, is that Keller is a poor leader and/or a jerk, that this somehow escaped Koetter's attention but was, in fact, so obvious and drastic when presented by a handful of teammates that it required immediate action. In other words, if you're pulling a guy off the field for extracurricular deficiencies, and not actual performance, why keep him on the team at all? He seems destined to be viewed - fairly or not - as a cancer, or at best a distraction. If the other players aren't going to play for him - again, something Koetter should have already picked up before naming him the starter to begin with - this isn't going to change if he has to come in for a hobbled or ineffective Carpenter. And it isn't going to keep the lack of leadership/jerkiness out of the locker room.

Keller's dad certainly picks up on this, but the fact that it was so late-breaking puts his son in a catch-22:

Mike Keller said that returning to ASU would be an "abhorrent situation," but it’s a decision that his son is prepared to make.

He labeled as "overblown" the notion that the Sun Devil players were not confident in Sam Keller’s leadership.

"With so many players on the team, Sam was voted as a captain," Mike Keller said. "These were all the guys that voted for him. In all the talk of players choosing sides, I think the anti-Sam faction is probably a small number, almost a discountable number."

Sam Keller, for his part, has stayed away from class in order to preserve his chances of getting on at a new school this semester, thereby getting in precious practice time in preparation for assuming the starting role in a year - hookey, perhaps, but conscientious hookey. And SMQ's professor's always said there was no suc h thing...

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KOETTER CUTS KELLER, CALLS KID CARPENTER CREAM OF QUARTERBACK CROP

2006-08-20T23:45:00.000-07:00

KOETTER CUTS KELLER, CALLS KID CARPENTER'S CARD IN COLLECTIVE QUARTERBACK COUP
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Story updated at bottom

Very weird about face out west Sunday night, where, just two days after naming "humbled" senior Sam Keller the gatekeeper of an inevitable 3,700-yard, 33-touchdown season and extolling fans to "rally behind Sam," Arizona State coach Dirk Koetter has abruptly handed the keys instead to sophomore Rudy Carpenter (Big Hat Tip to Devil fan and busy new dad Mark).

The Associated Press is reporting a possible bottom-drops-out scenario for Keller:

"It's simple. I made a mistake on the quarterback situation and I'm changing my mind," Koetter said after Sunday's workout. "We're going to start Rudy Carpenter. I've excused Sam Keller from practice to consider his options."

(Emphasis SMQ's)

So what, exactly, can take a coach from officially installing a productive fifth-year senior as the leader of his offense and team to telling him to hit the showers for good in less than 36 hours? Grassroots politics, apparently:

According to the East Valley Tribune, several players requested a meeting with Koetter after the initial decision and told the coach they believed the job should go to Carpenter.

Neither Koetter nor Carpenter would confirm that the meeting took place.

"I talked to so many people about this," Koetter said. "This has been weighing heavy on my mind for a long, long time and I'm the one that screwed it up. I have to live with it. I'm also the one who has to fix it."

Koetter sounds like a coach remorseful about making a call to go for it on fourth down that backfired in the heat of a game. SMQ has never heard a coach on the record with that kind of statement about personnel - especially within two days of a superficially predictable decision in practice, before a game is played, and it hasn't even had a chance to go wrong. The very short initial East Valley Tribune article, the first link above, does not, as the AP indicates, mention any kind of team meeting (an earlier version may have), but it does say "initial reports" were that Keller was out the door. E-mailer Mark referred to this as a "player revolt." The competition had previously been described as "a pressure-cooker" in which neither Keller nor Carpenter had distinguished himself over the other. Unless half the rest of the team threatened to quit over this move, it is completely baffling on Koetter's part. And if that is the case, it's baffling the coach wouldn't realize the players' general sentiments before naming a player College Football Resource calls "perhaps arrogant" and " always...on the brink of meltdown with his on-field emotions" as a starter.

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Have Sam Keller and his ASU teammates lost that lovin' feelin'?

Not that the confirmation of Keller's defection will have nearly the impact on ASU's January wishes and Rose Bowl dreams as Rhett Bomar's disgraced sojourn from Oklahama to as yet parts unknown will to the fortune of his former team. SMQ and roommate of SMQ will have no trouble plugging in Carpenter on online NCAA Football battles, where the high-octane Devils have become the household's flagship Web team. Carpenter was more than capable in his debut following Keller's hand injury, completing a significantly higher percent of his passes (68.4 percent to Keller's 58.7) for more yards per game (355 in complete performances to 344 by Keller) and fewer interceptions (2 to 9) while leading the nation in passing efficiency. This as a true freshman.

It's true that Keller faced the Devils' toughest defensive opponents (LSU, USC, Oregon) and still did eye-poppingly well numbers-wise, while Carpenter was busy later in the year torching the likes of Washington, UCLA and Rutgers; this tougher competition is a good explanation for Carpenter's 4-1 record as a starter, vs. Keller at 3-3 (SMQ is counting the Stanford loss as a wash, as both played significantly; Keller started, Carpenter took most of the snaps). Rudy also padded his stats in mop up duty against the woeful Northwestern defense, going 7-8 with a touchdown, all the better to improve the numbers against "winning teams." So the better numbers alone aren't necessarily telling a complete story in this case (as they so rarely do).

But rest assured Carpenter will resume ripping up ASU's record book in short order regardless the opponent - or at least he'd better, as stacked as the skill talent is at every position around him, and being Mr. Popularity and all. The veteran offensive line - which all of us can envision halfheartedly swiping at blitzers and missing assignments as Keller was crushed into either futile stoicism or frustrated belligerance - will apparently have reason now to keep their boy clean, pick him up after hits and pick fights with cheapshotting linebackers, etc. Always fun (not Leftwich Gets a Lift fun, maybe, but still an added element to the drama of a game).

As for Koetter, SMQ can't decide if suddenly overturning a decision that hasn't even taken effect, much less had time to fail, at the heed of his players is sound democracy in action or going soft when the inmates knock on the asylum's office door. Freezing Keller out completely would seem to be an overreaction, but that's without knowing the severity of the players' reaction or what went on in the alleged team meeting - if such a meeting took place - or any other fly-on-the-wall details. More is up here than meets the eye. Message board-skulking types will commence with conspiracy theories straightaway, no doubt, and scandalous, irresponsible gossip is encouraged.

UPDATE, 7:40 a.m.
The Arizona Republic confirms the meeting through receiver Terry Richardson - suspended by Koetter in the Spring - who called the pow wow "a mutual thing" among the team's player leadership (SMQ presumes "leader" in this case is an official title for a sort of player council member). Carpenter is also quoted as saying, after being named the backup Friday, ""I felt like I'm going to go to this scrimmage and play good and show everybody why I should be the starting quarterback or I might not even go at all." (emphasis SMQ's)

Carpenter is not contrite in the Tribune's more fleshed out version this morning, either. That story, along with columnist Scott Bordow, also says sources "close to the program" reported a meeting with 19 players on Saturday. Bordow's editorial echoed SMQ's initial sentiments:

When the players voiced their support of Carpenter — essentially throwing Keller under the bus — Koetter presumably decided it was best for the team if Carpenter was the starter.

If that’s the case — and we can’t be sure because Koetter wouldn’t go into specifics Sunday — then shame on the coach and his players.

Keller deserved better from his teammates. He lost his job because of an injury, played in the spring even when he wasn’t 100 percent, and now he’s the victim of a mutiny? How shameful.

Keller also deserved more support from his head coach. If Koetter truly believed Keller earned the starting job, he should have told his players to shut up and play. Let the inmates run the asylum, and chaos is soon to follow.

If Koetter was worried that the players’ dissatisfaction with Keller would cause dissension in the locker room and issues on the field, well, it’s his job to quash those problems.

Even if Carpenter threatened to transfer, that shouldn't have caused Keller to lose his job.

It would be a terrible precedent to set. Not happy? Play the transfer card, and if you’re important enough, you’ll get what you want.

Who does Carpenter think he is, Jorge Rafael Videla?

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ONLY ONE OF US HERE IS MAKING SENSE

2006-08-20T17:09:00.000-07:00

ONLY ONE OF US HERE IS MAKING SENSE...AND IT'S NOT SMQ
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Seriously, it's not. Read on.

Clear-headedness reigns, for now, at the brand new Florida State blog The Chop Shop, which delivers the most sensible top 25 24 SMQ's encountered this preseason.

And yo elaborate on the Shop's disagreement with SMQ's feelings on preseason poll etiquette: like Mobius, SMQ believes polls in-season should measure exactly where a team ranks at that point in time, as was written here Friday ("Once the season starts, [the polls] should measure performance"). The key there is "once the season starts." Beforehand, they have to measure expected performance. This is impossible without taking into account strength of schedule, because the level of opponent dramatically influences any perception of a team's strength. If a preseason voter's not predicting how a paricular team's season is going to shape up, what exactly is he predicting? Opponent strength must be accounted for to assess any performance or predicted outcome, and polls consistently show that teams which dominate weak schedules are ranked way ahead of teams that struggle or merely slip two or three times against difficult slates.

How good, for example, was Utah in 2004? It finished ranked fourth and fifth in the "major" polls. Were there really only three teams in the nation - two of them also undefeated - who were actually better than the Utes? Not many people would agree with that. The ranking was fair, though, as far as these things go, because Utah's season-long performance against its schedule was about as perfect as it could have been, and its final "resume" looked better than those of several teams (like California, or Michigan) who probably could have handled Utah. But that's what's there is to go by, the resume - who beat and was beaten by whom, and by how much - not the outright "strength," however that's supposed to be measured. Based on the "evidence," Utah had to be the pick, regardless of the supposed results of a hypothetical head-to-head with a "stronger" team. This happens regularly, year after year. Happened with West Virginia last year (you think the Mountaineers were really better than Alabama, Auburn, Miami, Oregon and Notre Dame? Or Virginia Tech - to whom they lost straight-up? Well, if not, you didn't vote that way). Or like the ditzy girl in class who is nowhere near as smart as you, and you absolutely know this...but she finished with the higher GPA taking easier courses, and gets her diploma ahead of you. The proof is in the pudding, and the pudding is wins, against anybody.

To get the difference here between resume and strength, think of Tennessee last year: certainly most fans would agree, given their victory over LSU and tough losses to Florida, Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina, the Vols could play with and likely beat, say, TCU, which itself beat Oklahoma but lost to SMU. Most would agree this would be a fairly even match-up, a toss-up kind of game, if UT wouldn't actually be the favorite. Yet nobody at year's end would have ranked the 5-6 Vols within 20 spots of the 11-1 Frogs, because TCU's record of wins was a much more impressive body of work than Tennessee's up-and-down, mostly losing campaign, even if Tennessee might have been the "better" team head-to-head. This has everything to do with schedule strength, which is an integral part of the process of assessing teams and must be accounted for.

On that note, SMQ wonders if Mobius (or anyone else) will rank Texas or Ohio State, off assured beatings of North Texas and Northern Illinois, in his first poll ahead of the Cal-Tennessee and Florida State-Miami winners. If, after all, "teams are ranked solely on their perceived strength at the moment the poll is created," the latter victors should be on top in the short term. But SMQ knows of no one who votes in such an ephemeral way; the near-unanimous mindset is to vote based on an ambiguous sense of "who's better," drawn from mostly historical factors, regardless of what any team has accomplished on the field to that point in the season. It takes playing virtually an entire schedule for the polls to sort themselves out according to the actual "resume," a team's entire body of work; for weeks or months prior to the omniscient view at the end of the season, voters are looking mostly at how they believe a team will finish rather than its on-field performance - this is why the Cal-Tennessee and Florida State-Miami winners, though prevailing over much tougher competition, have no chance of jumping Texas and Ohio State after the first week. There is a sense, based on the recent past (mostly last year) that Texas and Ohio State are "better" than any of the four teams previously mentioned, and this won't be overturned for many weeks of consistent winning by the lower-ranked teams, or until one or both higher-ranked teams lose (one will, obviously, the following Saturday, but that's beside the point, which is that no one bases their rankings strictly on on-field performance until several months into the season; if they did, the results would be utter chaos from week to week). In other words - and this is not news - the playing field, as it were, is not equal until the last few polls, which is why its the clarity of those season-ending polls, and none of the fleeting tumult in the interim, the preseason versions should be trying to forecast.

Because, again, what else is there to forecast before a game is played?

Where SMQ agrees with Mobius (and this was not clear Friday) is that the preseason polls should be immediately tossed out the window once the first games are played. This is why his weekly BlogPoll ballots this season figure to rank consistently on the "Mr. Manic-Depressive" scale, because teams are going to be flying all over the place on a weekly basis: one way or another, the body of work to date, a strictly on-field resume from Day One will be all SMQ plans to go by. Preseason projections and any general notions of "strength" de damned.

Hey, bet there's a formula to be concoted for that process!

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BLOGPOLL ROUNDTABLIN': PRESEASON EDITION ZAHL EINE, or BLINDING BOWLS WITH SCIENCE

2006-08-18T19:16:00.000-07:00

BLOGPOLL ROUNDTABLIN': PRESEASON EDITION ZAHL EINE, or BLINDING BOWLS WITH SCIENCE
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BlogPoll roundtable-up, at House Rock Built. Let us talk amongst ourselves:

1. What's the biggest ripoff in this preseason poll? Either pick a team that's offensively over or underrated, or you can rag on a particular voter's bad pick (hey, we're all adults here, we can handle it).
He's ragged on West Virginia enough, at his peril, so SMQ will look at Penn State, which comes in at No. 19. Why? What makes anyone think this team is going to look remotely like last season?

PSU's last two winning seasons have been followed by immediate reversions to ninth-place wannabe status. The drop off here, due to the killer linebackers at least, may not be that severe, but it will be sufficient to keep the Lions out of the top 25. SMQ said Purdue will beat Penn State for fourth place in the Big Ten, and he's pretty confident about that pick.

If Penn State auccessfully replaces its fifth-place Heisman Trophy-finishing quarterback and four suddenly solid senior offensive linemen and a first-round draft pick and two other very productive starters on the dominant defensive line and three veteran secondary starters, maybe it can compete for a New Year's Day game. Otherwise, SMQ is thinking Alamo. Think of 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2004 as the mean, to which they shall return.

2. What shold a preseason poll measure? Specifically, should it be a predictor of end-of-season standing (meaning that a team's schedule should be taken into account when determining a ranking), or should it merely be a barometer of talent/hype/expectations?
Preseason polls should measure what voters think the poll is going to look like at the end of the season. Once the season starts, they should measure performance (in practice, this means wild swings week to week), but there is no way to do this beforehand. There's nothing to measure but last year, and last year's not relevant anymore.

So voters should make the effort to determine how the season's going to go, which team has a chance in which games, how many losses each team is likely to have, etc. Some teams are going to be ranked higher because they don't play a tough schedule, and vice versa, but that's what the final poll's going to look like, too. And who wants to pick Alabama, for instance, in the top 20 when their schedule looks like it's going to leave them at 7-5, and Boise State over there's going 11-1? No, the preseason poll should be the official "bet" you make to be evaluated against actual results at the end of the season, and therefore should take into account strength of schedule to accomodate for the reality that good teams lose to other good teams and have to suffer the penalty it undoubtedly will in the regular season.

3. What is your biggest stretch in your preseason ballot? That is to say, which team has the best chance of making you look like an idiot for overrating them?
When Notre Dame's your number one and California's your number two, you got some splainin' to do. Because more people picked the Irish in that general vicinity than did so Cal, because ND is generally regarded as a legitimate mythical title contender and because SMQ feels such little personal investment in that pick - it's a crapshoot, and the Irish really just sort of fell there - he's going to be hanging his wack prognosticating hat on Cal. With the Bears, he's on the bandwagon. He's driving the bandwagon. That's a pick that required actually suspending much of the criteria used to knock everyone else - young quarterbacks, three new offensive linemen, not-awesome defense - for a more or less a gut feeling that the team would return to its 2004 level and benefit from its main conference rival's inevitable fall. That is a pure unadulterated hunch, a guess, that does not even pretend to follow objective standards or evidence. So, yeah, it's a reach. But the rewards - nice e-mails, prediction groupies, probably the cover of ESPN: The Magazine - make the risk worthwhile.

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Big Nate: Looks good to SMQ!

4. What do you see as the biggest flaw in the polling system (both wire service and blogpolling)? Is polling an integral part of the great game of college football, or is it an outdated system that needs to be replaced? If you say the latter, enlighten us with your new plan.
The BlogPoll needs two things, both of which have been discussed previously:

a) Its own Web site, and

b) A point-dispersal ranking format.

The first one is most important. Because although the poll is Brian's baby and he does wonderful, yeoman's work with it, it's an open, democratic, public exercise. Separating it from his personal blog - it's a fine blog, don't get SMQ wrong here - would give the poll more legitimacy as its own instituton. SMQ hereby calls for cfbblogpoll.com.

The point dispersal is Brian's own idea from way back, and it entails assigning a certain number points to each team from a pool. That is, you'd have, say, 100 points to distribute across the poll in any combination you'd like. So voters can give teams they feel are even the same number of points rather than have to guess which one should be first in line, and overload teams they feel very strongly about. What if you think 3-10 are all about the same? Now 10 doesn't have to be so far behind. What if there's a gigantic dropoff from 12 to 13? Point assignments can reflect that. It might allow for individuals to rank more than 25 teams, too, if there others they feel worthy, or less, if the bottom few aren't deserving. The results would add nuance, much more closely match voters' actual sentiments, and - less importantly, but still - distinguish the BlogPoll from other polls.

Polling does not need to be replaced, but SMQ is an avid supporter of adopting a playoff. In general, the only flaw with polling as a practice is that it's used to determine the "national champion." SMQ has no problem with the polls coming out to begin the season, because they sort themselves out over the long haul - there's rarely much disagreement in the final polls of the season, except occasionally at the top. Preseason polls are fine. Computers are fine. In fact, SMQ would like to see computers take over altogether, with the caveat that the formulas have to be public and be agreed upon by a huge committee of coaches and other football-smart people. Polls are fun - college basketball does one for no reason, and nobody cares. So do the lower divisions of NCAA football. Polling in and of itself is not the problem; SMQ would not even mind if polls picked the teams who would appear in a playoff. Just not the champion.

Kyle strikes SMQ as a conservative guy, so his defense of the bowl system is not a surprise. It is a surprise that he calls the bowl system "fundamentally American," when no other team sport widely played in America, anywhere, ever, has declared a champion in such a fashion. In fact, employing judges to declare a champion based on their own criteria of performance, i.e. the Olympics, or worse, sharing a championship, is a fundamentally international way of picking a winner, and subject to the same level of politics, vengeance, arbitrary personal tastes and corruption. And it's unscientific - and therefore thoroughly un-American! Except for all the other un-scientific stuff!

Championships must be won directly on the field, not awarded by the arbitrary opinion of a sportswriter or anyone else. It doesn't matter that SMQ almost always agrees with these opinions - they are still opinions, and by definition not suitable for picking a legitimate champion. The pollsters could theoretically vote for Duke - this is not entirely hypothetical - and make Duke the champion, just because. It doesn't matter whether or not they ever would do this; that they can is a fatal indictment to the system.

A playoff would not be difficult within the current postseason structure: at its current five games, the BCS is only two games from being able to accomodate an eight-team (and therefore seven-game) playoff. Two games. That's it. That's the radical change. With an 11-game regular season (although those clearly in the past) and a conference championship, two teams would play 15 games, two other teams would play 14, four others 13. That's at most - and a half-dozen teams are already going to be playing 14 games this year with conference championship games and bowls. By that measure, the overall number of games played is a wash. By adding two games to the system - two games that actually count towards determining a legitimate champion, along with the added importance of the four current non-championship games - ticket sales are boosted, ratings are boosted, interest is boosted. And the champion is fairly-crowned and undisputed.

The thorny issue, aside from determining which bowls host which games, how many and in what order, is deciding the participants. On that level, again, SMQ says the current structure is adequate. The exact BCS formula is open to discussion and tweaking - it should be public, and should be approved by a committee of coaches and other football-smart types - but the idea of using a formula that strives to be objective is a noble one. This is not an exact, um, science, but conjecture over who's number 8 is much better than over who's number 1 or, more often, who's going to play number 1? Nobody's ever disputed a Super Bowl or NCAA basketball championship, or shared one. A playoff is an inherently better system.

Let's also be clear that a playoff would in no way endanger the existence of a single bowl game. Some people seem to believe bowls would disappear entirely, and are mortified by this. Why? How would adding two games to the BCS and converting its format in any way diminish the prestige of the Silicon Valley Bowl? The big money games have already alienated the rest of the system as much as possible, seemingly intentionally so, and to the extent that all pre-New Year's Day bowls are already the equivalent of the NIT in basketball. SMQ loves bowls and says add a whole heap of 'em. Let everybody play in a bowl. It's inconsequential, playoff or not.

Kyle: up for a formal debate some time on this critical subject?

5. You're Scott Bakula, and you have the opportunity to "Quantum Leap" back in time and change any single moment in your team's history. It can be a play on the field, a hiring decision, or your school's founders deciding to build the campus in Northern Indiana, of all godforsaken places. What do you do?
Seriously, everybody knows that Scott Bakula, as Dr. Samuel Beckett, had no control over the destination of his leaps, but OK, whatever...SMQ's "oh boy" moment as it relates to Southern Miss football would be stopping the trainers or whoever from giving Derrick Nix the career-ending kidney poison that nearly killed him to treat a sprained ankle in 2000.

SMQ has no idea what kind of national rep Nix had, but entering his junior season off 1,000-yard efforts his first two years, he was easily the best running back in Conference USA, already one of the best in school history and, with his size and production, a good bet to be a high (at least first day) NFL draft pick down the road. USM was riding pretty high itself that season, coming off its third C-USA title in the league's four-year existence and the highest final poll ranking in school history while finding itself among virtually all of the polls' and magazines' preseason top 20 or 25 lists. After losing a very tight road game to Tennessee - any Southern Miss fan will still argue you down about LeRoy Handy's "failed" two-point conversion catch in the fourth quarter - USM shut out touted Alabama two weeks later and rose up to number 11 in the coaches poll. This is, in retrospect, probably the height of Southern Miss football since it left the pre-I-AA "small college" division.

Meanwhile, Nix is missing a lot more time than expected because of a little ankle injury, and there's a huge drop off to tiny DeWayne Woods. Nobody notices because the team is winning and winning and rising and can't possibly lose to any of the Conference USA peons - remember, Southern's won 14 straight in C-USA at this point and only lost two league games in four and a half seasons, both on the road to eventual champions (Houston, in 1996, was a co-champ with USM; the win was Tulane's toughest in its 12-0 season in 1998) - and Nix actually is in the lineup when a generic Louisville team comes to Hattiesburg for an assured Homecoming beating the first Saturday in November. This is the first home game SMQ attended as a student, and to it the program's rapid and steady descension can be directly traced.

Whether or not a full-strength Nix would have had any power to prevent the out-of-nowhere onslaught the Cardinals layed on Southern that afternoon is debatable. It might have helped - Jeff Kelly threw four interceptions and was sacked seven times, a fate a healthy workhorse could have staved off - but the fact is that a hobbled Nix got seven carries for 12 yards and the legitimately awesome defense had its first meltdown in a couple years. Louisville 49, Southern Miss 28. No-name Dave Ragone and Co. scored 42 points in a little under two quarters.

The mystique Southern Miss carried over the rest of C-USA was wiped out. Immediately. People pay lip service to this in preseason mags - "Southern Miss is always the team to beat in this league, you have to respect what they've done there, etc. etc." - but the one-time sense of superiority has not returned since. Southern subsequently lost two of the its final three, won a dinky bowl game (the first or second Mobile Alabama Bowl) and has failed to get back to eight wins in four of five seasons since - the one team that did get there, the 2003 skin-of-our-teeth league champions, honestly paled in comparison to the 1997 and 1999 champions, and really to the 1998 could-have-beens and 2000 should-have-beens, too. Last year's team, bowl appearance or not, was mediocre on its best day.

And this is where Nix comes in: if he's OK and in the lineup against Louisville, maybe it's a close loss. Maybe there's some shred of dignity that emerges. And most importantly, maybe he plays out the rest of the season, the Eagles win those two losses,and hit double-digit wins. And maybe, instead of missing the entire 2001 season, Nix has a big senior year and the team at least reaches a bowl game, thereby maintaining some semblance of status, some pride in being the for-real "team to beat."

The reason he wasn't in the lineup against Louisville, or the rest of the season, or the entire dismal, 6-5, bowl-less 2001 season? Not the ankle, a week-to-week kind of thing, but rather the medicine for the ankle: one of Nix's kidneys had a major allergic reaction, knocking him off the field for a year and a half - the crucial year and a half, it so happens, that the team went from relative powerhouse to perpetual also-ran. If one of the best players in school history is in the lineup during that span, maybe that slip doesn't happen. Maybe it's delayed a little longer. But the result would have been better with Derrick Nix on the field in those games.

This is certainly scapegoating, copping for the easy explanation, but there is some evidence in the start of the 2002 season just how much Nix, and his mere presence, meant to the team. In his second game back, already named to the school's All-Century Team, Nix singlehandedly carried USM in a win over defending Big Ten champion Illinois, a game in which he vomited in the end zone and passed out after a short early touchdown and later broke off a thrilling, powerful, backbreaking, go-ahead touchdown run from about 60 yards, the kind of play the low, low octane Eagles had not come close to producing in his absence, and the stadium was electric, chanting "Nix! Nix! Nix!" the whole time, over and over, just so completely ecstatic to have him back. SMQ's then-roommate, who had been nervously muttering "He's hurt. Nix is hurt," throughout the tense third quarter, was jumping and down during that run, screaming, shaking SMQ, "HE'S NOT HURT! HE'S NOT HURT!" The offense was nothing without him. Had no identity at all. Still doesn't. He was The Sporting News' national player of the week after that Illinois game, then topped 200 again the next week against Memphis.

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If only he really wasn't hurt

By the end of the year: kaput. Nix was on and off. He missed the devastating Thursday night double-overtime loss to hated Louisville (losses to Louisville were always devastating, in completely new and unique ways each time), pulled up lame in an embrassing flop at TCU and after getting USM into a bowl by rushing for over 100 yards in a win over East Carolina in his last game, the allergy flared up, he dropped a ton of weight, fell almost deathly ill, and eventually had to have a kidney transplant with an organ donated from his brother ~~Tyrone, the former USM linebacker and then-defensive coordinator (now DC at South Carolina)~~ [Commenter says it was his other brother-ed. SMQ believes him]. USM went 7-6, Derrick Nix was forced to drop NFL hopes to become an assistant coach. Ever since, his head has looked so enormous compared to the rest of his once-hulking body, it's hard to deal with.

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BLOGPOLLIN', PART TWO, or THE UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE

2006-08-17T05:18:00.000-07:00

BLOGPOLLIN', PART TWO, or THE UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE
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(SMQ's 11-25 can be found here)

The preseason BlogPoll is official, you know, and now we sooper smartypants Web folks with our fancy charts have an idea why the professional-type pollsters have been so consistently wrong for so long: this is hard! Everybody stinks.

SMQ himself didn't file his ballot until 9:15 a.m. Central (yikes! Did not consider time zones then. Good thing Michigan's on the same ~~latitude~~ longitude as Mississippi [at least you caught that yourself instead of some smartass commenter - ed. Swear to God I'm not a total idiot]), 45 minutes before the deadline, with the help of a haphazard spreadsheet ranking his top ten by position, offense and defense as a whole, coaching, exracurricular elements he feels especially important (namely, quarterback experience and run-stuffing ability on defense) and his perception of a team's overall talent level, based largely on past recruiting rankings. Each was rated 1-10, final rankings based on the end average. After weeks of hemming and hawing over fractions involving Central Michigan and Ball State, this analysis literally took less than an hour. The results may reflect this.

The results are, however, still as good a guess as anyone else is going to make this year, this insane year with team after legitimately, deeply flawed team written off for its apparent unworthiness, then rediscovered, rethought, shed in a new light, and uplifted by the medicority of those around it. Forecasting this sesason might be the most imperfect effort in the history of one of the planet's most imperfect sciences. And we, brothers, should take solace in that universal uncertainty rather than snipe at one another's inevitable ignorance and misfortune at the hands of unpredictable young men chasing a cruelly oblong ball in directions no combination of statistics, spreadsheets or soothsaying could possibly foresee.

Which is to say, SMQ is certain the rightest he can be in this context is still completely wrong. So don't jump on his back too hard when this is proven empirically by Penn State's mythical championship run.

So here we are, number one. Number One. Gotta be somebody. And SMQ hates to be one of these people, he really does, he was hoping it wouldn't come to this, honestly, you must believe, reader, but, uh, yeah, so, OK, er *closes eyes very tight* ...

1. Notre Dame
Ta-da?
OK. Though SMQ did contribute to an Irish-centered publication this offseason, this selection is in no way influenced by imbibing of any green brand name sugar-water mixures. The very long, very loud and almost very consensus raps on Weis' army of storm-trooping clones and Manchurian Candidate Brady Quinn are readily apparent: the defense was regularly torched. The offense put up its lauded numbers against horrendous teams and in grass imported from the backyard of an abandoned shack in the northern Argentenian jungle. The previous two Irish "resurgences" this decade were followed by two of the school's worst seasons in the past half-century. Heisman Pundit picked them number one - with a reference to the dreaded Gang of ~~Six~~ Four, even (four? What happened to Boise State and Utah? Oh, yeah). Et cetera and so on. All valid. All true.
Basically, SMQ just thinks these are more easily-overcome problems than Ohio State's emerging-from-the-crib defense, Auburn's size against the run and inexperienced O-line, Texas' pack of freshman quarterbacks, Florida's whimpering babes on the offensive line and in the secondary, SC's unavoidable succumbing to the Inviolable Laws of an Indifferent Universe and the lingering Jeff Bowden/Lloyd Carr problems at Florida State and Michigan. Notre Dame is flawed, but in SMQ's mind, the least flawed. Or the least fatally flawed. And that is the ringing endorsement.
The defense was shredded to little pieces by a runaway train Ohio State team in the Fiesta Bowl. This is undeniable because SMQ watched most of it happen. He also watched it happen to Florida in the 1996/7 Fiesta Bowl, in much grislier fashion, and the Gators rebounded the following season to win the mythical title. He also watched it happen to Tennessee in the 1997/8 Orange Bowl, and the Volunteers rebounded the following season to win the mythical title. Obviously, this doesn't mean Notre Dame will accomplish the same feat against a potentially brutal schedule, but it does mean they're not automatically excluded because of the poor postseason showing against a team virtually no one - maybe even either of the two Rose Bowl participants - was going to beat at that point. Plus, very importantly, the defense is going to be better. Has to be better. The linebackers are a question, but SMQ is willing to go with the experience and underrated talent (according to dubious recruitniks) on the line and in the secondary, admitted cornerback warts and all. This includes especially pass rushing specialist Victor Abiamiri and safety/knockout artist Tom Zbikowski, whom - in light of what Phil Steele reveals as sub-4.4 speed, two return touchdowns, two interception touchdowns, an instant knockout in his first pro fight and a menacing Marine cut- SMQ dubs the scariest player in the nation. If it didn't alright belong to all-time Terror Team hall-of-famer Mitchell Friedman, Zbikowski would be a mere Chuck Cecil collision/felony battery or firearm charge from earning the "Fright Night" handle. Ambrose Wooden was a top ten CB recruit, took his youthful lumps, and now needs to start paying dividends as a junior. At the least, it could improve to roughly USC's production (361 yards, 22.8 points allowed per game), which was more than enough for the Trojans' offense to surpass without much trouble. Notre Dame's offense may not be 49 per game material - the running game is just OK as a keep-em-honest necessity, compared to USC's galloping thunder stallions - but it will be good enough to leave a lot of margin for error on the other side, as much room as any team in the country, probably, and still get out unscathed.
And Penn State, Michigan, Purdue and UCLA=all at South Bend. No guarantees in sight, but, per the typical deception of the "impossible" Irish slate, the schedule doesn't shape up as brutally as it might appear on first glance. Certainly no more than Ohio State's.
And the offense! Gang of four! Score, baby, score!
Rending ballots to shreds in regret? Of course you are. Of course you are. Of course you are. SMQ is always right...Charlie Weis...Charlie Weis...

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Tom Zbikowski is out to grind your bones

2. California
This pick involved copious amounts of brand name sugar-water concoctions, of SMQ's own rendering. This is the one that will have to be defended to the justifiable skeptics. This is much crazier than Notre Dame on top. The one guy who picked Cal No. 1 is teetering on the edge of a dark, dark abyss at the core of his sanity; SMQ knows, because he's an early adoptee into the cult and almost put the Bears up there his own self.
SMQ first got into Cal sometime in July, talked himself into their prospective mythical championship success based on their embodiment of many time-tested underdog characteristics, the unreal yards per carry averages of the talented and gentlemanly Marshawn Lynch and backup Justin Forsett, Jeff Tedford's stellar and nearly unblemished history of molding average passers into fearsome, overrated draft picks, the return of six of the front seven on defense, including a legitimate all-American (DT Brandon Mebane) to clog up the middle and a pair of senior corners with the chops to hang with the likes of Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith (Daymeion Hughes and Tim Mixon combined to pick off 8 passes and break up another 22 last year).
Mostly, though, this pick is made with the firm belief that no single program, no matter its dominance, can continue to rock everyone's world in the fashion USC has the last three and a half years. Not when they've lost all that USC's lost. Nebraska 1996. Florida State 2001. Miami 2002. Oklahoma last year. This is just the way of nature, what SMQ's NFL namesake would refer to as an "Immutable Law": 'dynasties' run their course in about three years, when a large number of core players depart at once.
Cal, for all the reasons above, is the main beneficiary of the law's ruthless application this fall to USC. Definitely, they are not as talented as the Trojans. But they are more experienced, and in key spots - running game, defensive line that relatively contained USC and Oregon in a rebuilding year and allowed 3.3 per carry over the season - they are mythical champion quality. The receivers are very solid, very, very fast DeSean Jackson perhaps a star-in-waiting and at least the necessary gamebreaker in a pinch. SMQ likes to think of last year's pre-injury starter, Nate Longshore, especially under Tedford's watch, as the next Matt Mauck, and also reminds skeptics that Mauck's team won part of a mythical title with one loss. The main difference being the Bears have ab opportunity to circumvent the subsequent futile bickering by ensuring the loss is not to USC.

3. Ohio State
Maybe the best offense around, though Troy Smith ultimately is going to belong in the pantheon with Brad Smith or Michael Robinson, maybe, not Vince Young. This is no knock on Troy, just an assumption that either of those quarterbacks could also make a serious mythical title run with the kind of blazing talent accompanying him this year. What is going to put a kink in that run, of course, is the defense, which was legitimately as killer on a weekly basis as any in the country last year but lost the whole kit. Really, all of it - certainly this is the first preseason favorite to bring back an entirely new set of starters at linebacker and defensive backs (SMQ is more concerned about the latter). Getting over the inexperience there to put the Bucks on top is too much, though it's a testament to the terrifying offense and the ability of OSU's recruiting clout to restock the other side that they're this high.

NAVEL-GAZING INTERRUPTION
Hypothetical but likely thoughts from the reader: You know, for a guy who talks up defense so much, SMQ, you're really riding the HP/Maisel bandwagon here, aren't you? Notre Dame, Cal, Ohio State...point machines, dude, but who they gonna stop? You're a hypocrite, SMQ. A hypocrite and a sell-out.

Hard to argue, reader, except that a) SMQ has always touted balance - offense and defense, run and pass - as the road to wellness, and b) there is nothing at this point to suggest anything like the bonanza of hellraising defenses we saw in 2005. When will college football experience the point-pinching quality of last year's units from Virginia Tech, Penn State, Ohio State, Miami, LSU, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee and NC State in the span of a single fall again? All of these teams were outstanding - save the last two, which were merely competitive - despite mostly middle-of-the-pack offenses.

Now, though, those defenses have each been wracked by attrition with none vying to take their place, while experience and talent abounds on the other side at the above schools as well as on much of the rest of the poll. It looks like a high-scoring year. Which is not to say the best defensive teams won't still be as successful, but there will be fewer very good defensive teams and they won't be as good as the units that stood out so much in '05 - SMQ sees no team with a defense he feels can carry it into the top ten without some amount of firepower to go with it. But everybody up here, and in Tuesday's list, has the skill talent (offensive line is a different story) to average about 25 a game, minimum. Most of them will need to do better than that.

This has nothing to do with any overarching trends in strategy or anything, just returning talent and experience, which is far more concentrated this time around on the offensive side of the ball.

Onward:

4. SOUTHERN CAL
These guys can still play defense, as they return a full third of all the linebackers with starting experience nationwide (seriously, 7 LBs here have at least half a dozen career starts, and that doesn't include Rey Maualuga, the star sophomore who's probably the best of the gorup), plus a first-level pass rusher in Lawrence Jackson and the leading tackler, safety Josh Pinkard. The corners may be a problem and are the reason SMQ sees vulnerability against DeSean Jackson and the like.
But the real issue here is dealing with the loss of Leinart, Bush, White and three starting linemen on offense. The receivers definitely rule, but running back is a legitimate concern, given its youth and injury/eligibility at the position (is Chauncey Washington going to play or not?), and can't approach the insane production of the past two seasons. As stated above, the laws of nature will not allow this program to survive such losses with another trip to the mythical title game - nobody pulls this off four years in a row. Not USC, not nobody. But still, you know, they're very, very good.

5. Michigan
Maybe SMQ's gullible here, picking the Wolverines almost ten spots higher than the poll at large, but overrating in the past doesn't preclude more, um, overrating. Or something...you get it. Anyway, this seems pretty safe, actually, given the amount of talent returning on both sides and the lack of an obvious debilitating weakness that pretty much every other school around them is facing. We're talking about a quarterback in his third season as a starter, a steady running game, a couple potential all-league caliber receivers, four returning O-linemen, two potential all-America caliber defensive linemen, all three linebackers back, three out of four in the secondary - none of it overwhelming on its own, this not having been a great team last year, but collectively it adds up to one of the most complete wholes in the top ten. And this was a consistently competitive, oft-injured group that could have just as soon been a double-digit winner as 7-5. It is not wild conjecture to presume that kind of return from this talent.
Still SMQ doesn't really see them containing Troy Smith.
Important: This ranking is completely contingent on the health of Mike Hart, who has improved the offense by about 70 percent when he's been in the lineup that last two seasons, and is not valid in the occasion of persistent ankle injuries, or any other ailments necessitating his absence from the lineup. Three of the four debilitating Michigan losses last season were with Hart out or hobbled, and two of the three best wins, Penn State and Michigan State, were his best games. Nobody else ran on the Nittany Lions all season with such success.

6. Florida
Love love love the front seven on defense, maybe the nation's best such collection, and the passing game, even if it is occasionally hopelessly conservative. But the offensive line and secondary seriously undermine championship hopes outside of the conference. UF allowed 35 sacks last year, four or more in five games, which is unheard of among this elite territory. And there are four new starters up there this time around, which means big problems are ahead for Chris Leak and probably the running game, again.
Leak has plenty of very good options with the ball, though, and the D-line and linebackers are going to keep things within striking range of Meyer's offense, whether or not it's less grind-it-out than it was in its SEC debut last year.

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Florida's ranking will roughly correspond to the number of times per game this happens to Chris Leak

7. Texas
Everything is in order here otherwise, but no way is SMQ signing on to either of a pair of brand, brand new quarterbacks taking this team past the Big XII championship. That they're the consensus now, post-Lexusgate, to advance that far is a testament the overwhelming abilities of the rest of the squad. But as far as repeat mythical championships go, we must recall that the first one required the greatest efforts of one of the most dynamic athletes the sport has yet produced - a little out of the range of Colt McCoy and Jevan Snead just yet. All bets are off, though, if one of those guys does enough to beat Ohio State.

8. Florida State
SMQ said Tuesday one of his initial efforts resulted in the 'Noles on top, largely because of an old-school schedule that includes Miami up front, Florida at the back, and not much apparent danger in between. The inexplicable ACC loss, and often two of them, has become the routine in the darkness of the Rix years and on into Drew Weatherford Era, but not necessarily guaranteed to continue. For one, the late season slide coincided with season-ending injuries to three starting offensive linemen, an area that ought to be counted as a veteran asset this year. Two, the win over Virginia Tech and hard-fought overtime loss to Penn State in the Orange Bowl were reminiscent of the old FSU teams that finished up here without fail. And three, Mickey Andrews has another crop of robotic mustangs set on 'destroy.'
The only real requirments for a major comeback season that would include a more convincing conference championship in a vulnerable league are health, a reduction in picks from Weatherford and a better willingness to get the ball into the hands of very dangerous backs Lorenzo Booker and Antone Smith. Won't win 'em all, but every game is winnable, at least.

9. Auburn
If Michigan is a wack No. 1 pick an unfamiliar Southerner might fall for, Brian, SMQ would say the same about the Tigers for Midwesterners. Orson may be ridin' with AU, but SMQ has concerns about the young receiving corps and especially the loss of Marcus McNeil and Troy Reddick, a massive and vital tackle combo that will be much-missed regardless the experience on the interior. Similarly, the defense will miss Stanley McClover and especially Tommy Jackson, who was an essential run plugger in the middle of an otherwise speed-rushing unit. SMQ still believes teams can line up and run straight at 215-pound converted DBs at linebacker with success, as Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, Alabama (when it wasn't being sacked to death) and then Wisconsin in the bowl all did to some degree last season.
Optimism is clearly in order for the pass rush, Kenny Irons and probably Brandon Cox, who got a bad rep for an interception-riddled (but otherwise very assured) start against Georgia Tech's relentless blitzing but dramatically cut back on mistakes over the season. SMQ is willing to call these Tigers the class of the SEC West, if only because he much prefers Tommy Tuberville to...

10. LSU
Les Miles and his pristine, square capped excitability are another of several SEC teams (Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia) faced with replacing the overwhelming bulk of an unstoppable D-line bent on destruction, and the Tigers' losses (Kyle Williams, Melvin Oliver and Claude Wroten) might be the most severe. They're also looking to replace Cameron Vaughn, the defense's most productive player at linebacker. Glenn Dorsey and Ali Highsmith ought to be better than serviceable in those roles, but a 38-sack, 3.0-yards-per-carry repeat is not very likely. The offensive line is also replacing both tackles - though one of the potential new guys, Philip Loadholt, is a 6-9, 344-pound JUCO monster.
SMQ likes: again, the skill guys. JaMarcus Russell is only a junior! What? He has a good chance to live up to his huge hype after all. Alley Broussard, Dwayne Bowe, Early Doucet, etc. are all frightening options with the ball.

Got all that? Now forget it, if you know what's good for you.

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BLOGPOLLIN', PART ONE: THE SORROW AND THE PITY

2006-08-15T03:38:00.000-07:00

BLOGPOLLIN', PART ONE: THE SORROW AND THE PITY
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Before he logs his very, very official and very, very poorly-reasoned BlogPoll ballot later on today, SMQ would like to pause for a moment of silence in honor of the endless hours devoted to devising myriad systematic rubrics for determining a firm 1-119 ranking for every team this offseason, the late, spreadsheet-less nights, occasionally fighting sleep over an office-ledger type grid, illegible and blacked-out blocks of numbers combined with symbols decipherable only to SMQ, the increasingly complex fractions, hedges and corrections employed to push the systematic results into a form the abstract football mind could justify. Such innocence; such waste.

The goal was to come up with a poll that would most closely resemble the final poll of the season, which meant assessing every team in every game, devising fair ways to account for the various probabilities of given teams winning in evenly-matched toss-ups, the differences in potential upsets, probable competitive losses and likely blowouts and assigning points that would accurately account for wide strength of schedule variations. Months of this tedium resulted Sunday in this:

1. Florida State

Um, not to disrespect Florida State, but...no. How to fix this? Count the championship games! Have FSU lose to Miami in the ACC Championship! That's the ticket!

But then:

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan

Which is a possible finish, in the broadest theoretical sense, but practically not feasible at all. And it took a minor form of cheating to get to 'not feasible.' So: strict adherence to the system=out the window.

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SMQ's efforts at systematic prognostication

The results are useful as a kind of guide, though. The estimation of some teams (Michigan, for one, and Clemson) rose somewhat dramatically; others (Georgia, UCLA) fell far out of favor relative to the initial gauges of their prospective success. Below, the order is basically the wreckage of SMQ's ill-fated rubric, with a few minor changes. The real adjustments are going to come among the top ten, which is much more closely scrutinized and, given Evil Dictator Brian's mandate that schedule strength - again, a major factor in all of SMQ's haphazard tabulations - be ignored entirely, open to more flexibility as well. Right now, four different teams, all intensely flawed in some fundamental and important aspect, are heavily vying for SMQ's top spot, and there is a good chance none of them will actually occupy it when the final results are submitted.

Anyway, 11-25:

11. Miami
Take all indications of imminent demise here in the spirit they're offered - the 'Canes are still bad, bad men, and not only in the sense that they're linked to random and subsequent retaliatory gunfire. Last year's performance at Virginia Tech is a good indication of what Miami's still capable of and shouldn't be dismissed. Neither, though, should the embarassing Peach Bowl shellacking against LSU, which cemented this program's outsider status until further notice in terms of the mythical title race. Kyle Wright, like Hypothetical Rhett Bomar (see below), is a former No. 1 recruit who looks OK but doesn't show any signs after a full season of living up to that expectation. Given the ACC landscape, still a conference championship, and therefore big-money series, frontrunner, but expansion means even that status is losing prestige.
12. Oklahoma
Could have finished as many as ten spots higher prior to Lexusgate, when everyone already assumed Adrian Peterson would be driven harder than an RX anyway. But Paul Thompson was actually named the starter before last season and played plenty early on, so the dropoff may not be very significant. If the offensive line holds up - big, big "if" with four new starters - there may be no dropoff. Either way, this is obviously a defensively-driven team, and will go far on those merits. The Sooners also miss rising Nebraska, so barring another TCU-level upset, Texas and Oregon will represent the only major challenges.
13. Iowa
The Hawkeyes are a chic top ten "rebound" pick, but SMQ questions that level of progress minus the Hodge-Greenway linebacker combo he suspects had more to do with last year's run-stuffing abilitites than some more serious Hawkeye hypers may realize. The D-line looks generally tough enough, but bigger concern is at the speed positions, receiver and corner, which are newly staffed; the corners, especially, are a liability in a league whose other top five teams all have "above average" to "permanent prevent-inducing" receiving combos. Drew Tate, capable of beating Ohio State in Iowa City on guts of steel (or, should the NCAA take its cues from the World Cup and institute a tiebreaker format that has virtually nothing to do with the actual game, a closest-to-the-pin contest in overtime), keeps them in Rose Bowl contention.
14. Louisville
A strength of schedule casualty, albeit one that has an excellent chance to run the table with Miami and West Virginia both visiting Papa John's Stadium (Score an extra point tonight...at the dinner table! Papa John's!). As we'll see later with another of SMQ's pet favorites for the season in the top ten, 2006 is sort of a "rubber match" for determining the program's baseline expectations under Bobby Petrino until further notice: is it the shoot 'em up, no holds barred fury that crushed virtually everyone in its path - including mighty Miami, but for a punt return and dropped icing interception - or the milder crew that was very good last year, but not great enough to avoid a weird letdown against a lesser opponent (South Florida), a blown opportunity against an equal (West Virginia) and a late capitulation to a superior team (Virginia Tech in the bowl)? Brian Brohm, assuming his leg's OK, has already entered and ought to be quickly surpassing Redman/Ragone/LeFors territory any minute now, with school hall-of-famer and giant running back Michael Bush in tow, which leaves it up to his underhyped skill guys and especially the Dumervil-less defense to put this bunch back on the road to dominance.
15. Tennessee
Alright, SMQ will bite on the Vols' relative resurgence, with a caveat: last season's defensive line was insane, one of the best of the decade at stuffing the run while also getting after quarterbacks, and it still wasn't good enough to push the one-dimensional offense to a winning record. So, query: is Erik Ainge, you know, stable? Enough to open up defenses against the run a little, and not nervous twitch himself into spastic mistakes against blitzes, at least? Cause there aren't really any other options, i.e. a Rick Clausen or Brett Schaeffer who can step right in, behind him. David Cutcliffe is supposed to be the zen master in this regard, but SMQ has his doubts the mantras will produce enough change to make up all of the difference sure to be incurred by a very talented but very young front seven. Still, too talented for now to write off that kind of collapse as anything but a momentary aberration.
16. Nebraska
SMQ says fear fear fear this team. It's not worth going overboard, but in last week's anatomy lesson on forecasting stunning mythical title contenders, the Huskers were the perfect storm of rising, highly-recruited talent, run-stuffing hellions and veteran quarterbacking cool under a new, big-name hire - i.e., a replica of Oklahoma in 2000 or Ohio State in 2002. Nebraska improved over the second half last year, played Texas Tech and Oklahoma very close in losses, detroyed division champion Colorado in a breakthrough game and capped it by hanging on against Michigan in a momentum-soldifying/building win. Definitely the Big XII North favorite, perhaps still a year away, maybe two (since Harrison Beck is out the door) from more. Or maybe waiting to pounce with cornfed, creepily-mascoted vengeance now. Don't say SMQ didn't warn.

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Watch out. Seriously.

17. Clemson
The Tigers are tallying some tout, which Orson rightfully pegs as a historical harbinger of doom. Or something like that. But, even sans Charlie Whitehurst, or any other quarterback who's ever played significantly, the offense is pretty much loaded - all five linemen are back (assuming potential Bryant McKinnie-esque left tackle deity Roman Frye remains out of the soup over last month's jet ski tragedy), Chansi Stuckey is an all-ACC caliber receiver who could also take a few shotgun snaps in a pinch and there are about three running backs who can play, with another (C.J. Spiller) coming in. New QB Will Proctor's a senior and thus ought to be fine, if not a revelation (Whitehurst was good, not that good- Proctor would have been on the field before now if he were going to be a revelation). This will probably also be Tommy Bowden's best defense, led by Gaines Adams, who is not as dominant as Video Gaines, the highest rated player on NCAA Football 2007, but is a quality sack/TFL man. Given the annual inexplicable loss to, let's say, Wake Forest, the difference will be split with an equally stupefying upset and a potential New Year's Day visit - which would be Bowden's first here, for the record.
18. West Virginia
Probably the lowest you'll see the Mountaineers, "darkhorse" darlings with close to an entire offense back and some serious holes to plug from a good, senior-laden defense. SMQ has made his argument against the "BCS or Bust" campaign for WVU before, and will add only this: in the history of the poll system, West Virginia has never finished ranked in consecutive seasons, so if they do wind up in this area, it would best the school's historical trends. Also consider SMQ's "Purdue Rule," named for the high projections stemming from the quirky omission of Michigan and Ohio State from the Boilermakers' '05 schedule: when a team's most attractive asset is who it doesn't have to play (in this case, Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College), that is not a team hitching itself to the stars.
19. Virginia Tech
Ah, the aforementioned Hokies turn up at an appropriate time, for they, too, are benefitting in polls from an unusually soft non-conference lineup (SMQ's Golden Eagles are the toughest of the patsies) and an ACC slate that misses the Atlantic Division's likely best team, Florida State. Which means Tech, a team shuffling brand new, inexperienced quarterbacks behind a rebuilding line and replacing four draft picks on defense is likely to be a favorite in every game but one (at Miami). SMQ imagines a loss to either Boston College or Clemson, if not both, and despite the enormous speed at wide receiver and linebacker, no better than a prominent position in the snarling race for the Gator Bowl.
20. Arizona State
The quarterback depth isn't that big of a deal, since only one can be on the field, but whichever one that is at any given time is going to have many opportunities to succeed again in a geared-up offense stocked with talented, experienced, versatile skill guys who are proven commodities. This is so much a given that essentially all the focus will be on the defense to make the three or four stops per game necessary to outscore people. Northwestern transfer Loren Howard, a former all-Big Ten guy, is supposed to help out there, but his addition can't be much more than a wash with tackle factory linebacker Dale Robinson gone. A quality darkhorse candidate and an excellent video game team, if you're not one of those annoying scramble/option types, but a long shot to finish better than third in the PAC Ten in real life without some noticeable defensive improvement that will prevent repeats of '05 losses to the likes of Stanford and Oregon State. One of those - or Arizona, or Washington, or especially dangerous Washington State - is likely to slip through the cracks again.
21. Oregon
A major beneficiary of Lexusgate. The Ducks' home date with Oklahoma now looks winable, very winable, and the boost was enough to vault a ten-game winner last season back into SMQ's poll. Despite much late season urging for BCS inclusion, this feels more like where UO probably should have wound up in a pure "power poll" style ranking in '05, and where a very similar team with a slightly stiffer schedule will likely end up. Very productive Kellen Clemens,Terence Whitehead and Demetrius Williams exit as more touted Dennis Dixon, Jonathan Stewart and Jaison Williams ascend to starting positions behind a fully intact offensive line. Very much in the Holiday Bowl race, and that's not snark or sarcasm. The Holiday Bowl is okay, man, so just lay off.
22. Georgia
Even SMQ thinks this is close to excessively low for the ol' Dawgs, defending SEC champs, but the consistency of nine-win seasons under Mark Richt isn't going to magically uplift a likely true freshman quarterback or three new starters on both lines and in the secondary. Recall that each of Richt's East Division championship teams - he's had three in the last four years - were quarterbacked by either supernaturally steady David Greene and much-hyped senior D.J. Shockley; Joe Tereshinski III has waited, like Shockley, to step into the starter's role in his last season, but that's where the comparisons end - see Florida last year, a defeat the Bulldogs win by two touchdowns with Shockley in the lineup. Behind JTIII, the options' eyes have not yet opened. Tennessee was able to grind its way to Atlanta with a true freshman quarterback behind a strong running game and defense two years ago, but attrition has hit UGA too hard in too many places for any such forecasts in this league; Richt is coach of the year otherwise. A dangerous team...in 2007.
23. Boston College
SMQ has previously named BC his 'underrated' team of the preseason, and so far his is the only poll of which he is aware that includes the persistent Eagles. Still, they don't rank quite as high as he had expected, and are sitting third in the ACC Atlantic, where most other folks are sticking them, too. There are legit conference title hopes here because the rest of the league is poised for a Big 12 North-like run of "frontrunner hot potato" unless Florida State gets its mind right, but they're going to do it by the most innocuous possible combination of running back-by-committee, controlled passing, stopping the run and creating turnovers. BC has the misfortune of drawing both Miami and Virginia Tech from across the conference's divisional divide, and you won't hear much about the Eagles if they don't win one of those games, or upsets FSU. They probably also won't come out this high in anyone's poll if they don't.

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Nothing to see here, folks...keep it movin'...

24. Georgia Tech
Entering Year Five, Chan Gailey Equilibrium faces its toughest test yet at Georgia Tech: finding a way to stay at seven wins with a) an extra regular season game, b) a four-year starter at quarterback, c) the most unstoppable freak of a receiver in the nation, d) two veteran lines and e) a fast, aggressive defense that comes out of the gate screaming past confused blockers. If anyone can do it, it's Chan, but the prospects of a new, non-mathetmatically burdened playcaller - OC and former Auburn QB Patrick Nix - with Calvin Johnson and a certain-to-be adequate running game on hand will adding the extra touchdown every two-three games to break the elusive eight-win barrier is attractive. Like Michigan State, if this exact same team on paper, coming off a 7-5 season in which it beat both Miami and Auburn on the road and gave Georgia hell, was returning for any other school, it would be in everybody's top 15. Even a little departure from the rut - like 9-4, maybe - would be a welcome psychological boost.
25. Purdue
Another "redemption" team, in good position to vault to the top of a weakened middle of the pack in the Big Ten. Had to be better at its core than 5-6, last year, right? Had to be. Somebody had to be the casualty of a conference that deep, and the Boilers were it. But Joe Tiller hasn't had consecutive losing seasons here, and has earned the benefit of the doubt pending further negative developments. Will beat Penn State.

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THE FOLLOWING IS AN EXCLUSIVE PRESENTATION...

2006-08-14T08:08:00.000-07:00

LIKE SANDS THROUGH THE HOURGLASS, THESE ARE THE GAMES OF OUR LIVES
The following is an exclusive presentation...
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In honor of the impending kickoff to the 2006 season, SMQ resolves over the next three weeks to share a few of the personal moments that have most fueled and reinforced his irreversible affection and obsession for the apparent foolishness that comprises the game. Appropriately, all recollections are heavily distorted, sentimentalized and not to be trusted in any way.

1993-2005: Jefferson Pilot Sports is proud to present: Relentless Mediocrity
Already, requiems, paeans and eulogies are rolling in for Jefferson Pilot Sports, the exclusively Southern Saturday ritual for bottom-tier SEC and (apparently, at least occasionally in the Carolinas and maybe Virginia) ACC football that served as one of the final, charmingly inept bastions of unrepentant regionalism in big-time college football's nearly complete "globalization." Lincoln Financial Sports, as the newfangled production will be known, is going retain the unlikely triumverate of Dave Neal, Dave Rowe and Dave Baker, but presumably not the very, very un-HD production values, nor the sponsorship strategy that - after broadcasting a dozen games into SMQ's home every year for well over a decade - failed to embed in his consciousness what business, exactly, Jefferson Pilot is in.

Perpetually transporting viewers to the halcyon days of Pat Dye-Billy Brewer showdowns with reliably old school graphics, two-quarters-behind score updates (usually of games viewers were watching simultaneously two channels up, with the correct score) and a total, willfull ignorance of the national landscape, a continence that considered Arkansas 'far west' and Kentucky 'north' (them hoss-racin' bluebloods waren't e'en in the Confed'racy!). Certainly these broadcasts ate up the lion's share of the budget for potato chip advertising - calling the audible for Golden Flake at your next tailgate, football fans, or y'all some-a them faincy' Lay's munchers?

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Golden Flake: Like Mississippi State's secondary, JP viewers prefer 'em thin 'n crispy. Or barbecued, whatever your snarky rhetorical preference.

Seemingly everybody in the league got on in at least one time-killer a year, but a few always-terrible games involving Vanderbilt and Kentucky were JP locks: Kentucky was eternally trudging uphill against Florida and Tennessee, and then either Georgia or LSU in between; Vandy got some 'these guys got a lotta heart' love in annual defeats to Alabama, Tennessee, sometimes Florida or Georgia and, most memorably, Ole Miss.

The Rebels got the longest straw from the West Division's hand by drawing Vanderbilt as its annual opponent from the East (the other locked-in matchups are Florida-LSU, Georgia-Auburn, Alabama-Tennessee, Mississippi State-Kentucky and Arkansas-South Carolina), always in the first couple weeks of the season, and SMQ does not recall ever watching more than a play or two at a time during the first half of any of those games. By the fourth quarter, though, the Big Ten's JP equivalent having gone to hell on ESPN2 (SMQ will put Dave, Dave and Dave up against a Pam Ward or Mark Jones-led team any day) and the 2:30 marquee games on ABC and CBS just entering extended pregame montage mode, it was always "hang on to your hats, look what we have here!" time in Nashville/Oxford, where the riveting and inevtiable prelude to the equally inevitable Commodore collapse was reaching its crescendo.

Year after year, upstart Vandy took it to Ole Miss for about 56 minutes, and year after year, Vandy lost in the end. This is straight gut reminiscence and therefore definitely wrong in nine details out of ten, but SMQ swears Dan Stricker caught at least 53 balls in three games against Ole Miss as he, Greg Zolman and a random undersized running back set career highs en route to a four to twelve-point lead in the final frame. Jay Cutler'd always be running up and down the field, looking like a slow Matt Jones. And then, splat: Ole Miss beat Vandy on last second field goals, the untimeliest of turnovers, excruciating drives featuring at least two fourth down conversions, you name it. A couple years ago, Vandy had a long, probably icing touchdown called back because a receiver lined up offsides, then blew a two-touchdown advantage and lost by three or four. And so on.

It was necessary that these games happened in the beginning of the year, before Vandy resigned itself to the cellar again and packed it in. Early on, any given year could still be different, and this optimism was usually why they also consistently played (and still play) Alabama tough within the first few weeks of the year without ever registering a win. Watch the Commodores a month later, though, and Georgia or Florida's spanking them like they came from the Sun Belt, or the Big West before it.

All JP matchups looked bad going in, but who was there in 1994 to broadcast Auburn intercepting Jamie Howard 23 times in the fourth quarter for a stunning comeback win, Frank Sanders' trampoline touchdown catch to beat top-ranked Florida, or bottom-dweller LSU roughing up heavyweight Alabama against every shred of logic? Who gave the world rain-soaked Billy Jack Haskins' immortal touchdown run in Kentucky's near-upset of Tennessee in the mid-nineties? LSU's hail mary to crush the scrappy Wildcats' will to exist in 2002, a multiple "oh my god" moment and the only game (due to the premature Gatorade dump on Guy Morriss and the devastated expression of one particular tie-sporting Kentucky student who had jubilantly rushed the field in the middle of the final play) that has ever led to SMQ rushing into another room and pounding on the carpet in delirium? Hines Ward, quarterback? Jared Lorenzen, Matt Jones, Steve Taneyhill and the Booty Brothers in general? When Sidney Rice wins the first ever Olympic gold for high jump figure receiving in 2012, remember it was Jefferson Pilot Sports that first brought you his jaw-dropping acrobatics against Arkansas and Florida last year.

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"Oh my god"

There is a chance Lincoln Financial fills the bill, and does not ruin the football equivalent of Hee Haw; i.e., it keeps the kickoff at an awkward but dependable 11:30 a.m. Central Time, never introduces a game or segment with or in any other way utilizes any kind of music one could conceivably hear on any radio station anywhere (especially rap or hip hop), allows Dave Rowe to continue to refer to himself self-effacingly as "an old lineman" or some variation a minimum of once per possession and refrains from upgrading camera technology when duct tape's been holding the lens onto the frame just fine for years. Otherwise, RIP JP. RIP.

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Permalink

THE RAP SHEET

2006-08-11T02:01:00.000-07:00

THE RAP SHEET
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The week in eligibility-crippling issues - legal, academic, institutional and otherwise...

First of all, this is not funny:

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Inevitable, but not funny

When you are an accused felon drunkenly eluding police in a virtual armory of loaded assault weapons while wearing a bulletproof vest that wards off stun gun attempts, maybe a $5 million bond for being "a threat to the community" is not as excessive as it first struck SMQ.

Pundits pundit, futily: columnist/professional screamer Woody Paige, who covered Clarett's brief stint with the Broncos, hollered against the most fundamental concepts of the Western criminal justice system Wednesday on the WWL's Around the Interruption, suggesting (in a commanding sort of way) instead that Clarett be placed "in a home" for a couple years, away from "the spotlight" to recuperate and grow up a bit, in order to "save a life" rather than throw it away in prison. Bloomberg's Scott Sloshnick ruthlessly mocks such bleeding heartism, and says the only person responsible for throwing an inordinately talented and potentially charmed life away is Clarett. Mike Lopresti says substantively little in his syndicated column, but otherwise declares Clarett "a perfect example of how much can go wrong."

Given that there at least half a dozen football players on various levels currently in prison or facing prison on murder charges, and scores more with rape and other sexual and domestic abuse charges, Clarett isn't exactly the perfect example of how things go wrong. Things can go worse. But his case is the most high profile since Ray Lewis' murder and obstruction of justice charges, and certainly one of the most bizarre/senseless. Were he not caught when he was - using spike strips to stop his out-of-control SUV and mace after the tasers failed, no less - Clarett's situation might have wound up in the same very, very serious territory. At least, so far, he hasn't hurt anyone other than himself.

So, too, the less spectacular case of another (momentarily, at least) ex-Buckeye, tight end Marcel Frost, who started during the tidal wave of yards and points that was the OSU offense over the last five games of '05 but was suspended Tuesday for an undisclosed violation of far-reaching, super-secret team rules. Frost apparently was not arrested or cited for illegal activity, but he'll miss the entire season rather than the standard game or two, which portends serious infractions, even if not Clarett-level.

BREATHED, sighs of relief, by programs nationwide after the Auburn athletic department was cleared of puffed-up accusations it steered players towards fast and easy grades, though the fallout from the original New York Times story did culminate this week in the ouster of two AU profs. One of those was James Petee, the sociology department director whose massively untenable load of "directed reading" classes allegedly aided the GPAs of many, many non-athletes, which SMQ suspects from his 100 percent outsider position was exactly the coup de gras colleague/whistleblower/academic egotist James Gundlach was secretly aiming for from the beginning. Luckily there is a peachy consulting job waiting for Petee at prestigious Spicoli U.

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Gundlach: Worst...scandal...ever!

DISMISSED, for yet another "team rule violation," Oklahoma receiver Jermaine Hardison, whose description in the ESPN account has SMQ suspecting even Sooner fans are left wondering, "Who?" Hardison was a walk-on who never played a down for OU in three years.

Hardison's dismissal seemingly has no connection whatsoever to that of Rhett Bomar and J.D. Quinn - especially because no sane person was paying Hardison to do anything football-related - but does give SMQ reason to briefly reference the sweepstakes underway for the one-time blue chip QB. The latest: TCU may be out of the derby, but now Bomar takes a look at Houston (as a devotee of a potential C-USA opponent, SMQ would like to say, doesn't Texas A&M-Commerce have a beautiful campus? SMQ hears the girls in Commerce are pretty unbelievable...).

This week's quick hits:
FOX: USC All-American Jarrett reinstated

ESPN: USU player charged with felony distribution, suspended from team

Boston Globe: O'Hagan penalized: Harvard suspends QB for five games [HT: Da Wiz; Crimson captain and all-Ivy League linebacker Matthew Thomas was also suspended in July after an arrest for assault, battery and domestic abuse and breaking and entering]

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Permalink

2006 PREVIEW: THE SUN BELT

2006-08-11T01:21:00.000-07:00

2006 PREVIEW: THE SUN BELT
They're here, they're queer, get used to it
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Anonymous. Geographically vague. Sensitive. Defensive. Teetering on the edge of the vast chasm separating ~~divisions I-A and I-AA~~ Football Bowl Subdivision and NCAA Football Championship Subdivision in the abyss of obscurity, ridicule and shame. There is no explanation for the existence of this vagabond effort, for its members - currently at eight; by tomorrow, who knows? - to coalesce in order to subject the unsuspecting fan to its in-your-face inferiority.

And yet someone must stand up for the Sun Belt. Is it not a conference? If you buy a ticket, do its teams not play? Does its champion not attend a bowl? No, SMQ is not a Sun Belt fan - not that there's anything wrong with that - but that doesn't give him or anyone one license to treat it with any less dignity or respect, with any fewer rights, dammit, than any conference. It's easy to say, 'Let them play, I just don't want to know about it.' But it's time the college football world opens and realizes: the Sun Belt is not going away. And if SMQ has to be the one to set aside his prejudices and do what's fair and right by previewing the Sun Belt, by helping it emerge from the shadows and be proud of what it is, by helping fellow college football fans to learn that Sun Belt teams are just like our teams (and to learn which teams, exactly, those Sun Belt teams are), then it's a mission he bears solemnly and dutifully to fulfill:

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My father's a Sun Belt fan...Look, you wanna go to a Sun Belt game right now? Do want to go to a Sun Belt game with me right now? Let's go! C'mon, let's go baby! C'mon!

PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
1. Louisiana-Lafayette
2. North Texas
3. Middle Tennessee State
4. Troy
5. Arkansas State
6. Florida International
7. Louisiana-Monroe
8. Florida Atlantic

Team Previews

1. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
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2005: 6-5 (5-2 Sun Belt) / Last Five Years: 20-37 (16-17 Sun Belt)
2006 Schedule

What Everyone Should Know: Cajuns are good-natured folks, unafraid after centuries of political rebellion, forced migration, racial/cultural upheaval and relative isolation even to adopt a flaming tamale as an official symbol to the world, rather than the "ragin'" lunatics the surprisingly non-NCAA-sanctioned nickname would suggest. The football team, certainly, has displayed virtually no ill temper towards opponents since well before the school's name was changed from "Southwest Louisiana" - 2005 was ULL's first winning season since Brandon Stokley's dad Nelson was coach in 1995, the year after Jake Delhomme led the team to a pair of Big West titles.
Good At: Running over and over and over and over like a no-talent high school team that just wears you out. The Cajuns started 2005 1-5 (the one coming against I-AA Northwestern State), then virtually abandoned any pretense of throwing and won five straight in fairly impressive fashion. Collectively, various players ran on more than 77 percent of the team's snaps (about 57.5 times a game) over the last six games, allowing true freshman Tyrell Fenroy to become the first 1,000-yard rusher in school history and rotating quarterbacks Jerry Babb and Michael Desormeaux to pick up more than 400 on the ground apiece. And only mighty Texas, which gave up 72 yards on 2.1 per carry in the opener, really ever stopped them (season per carry average: 5.3 yards). The top five runners are back with three offensive lineman, two of whom, The Other Brandon Cox and Jesse Newman, are all-leaguers in the estimation of Phil Steele and The Sporting News.
Not So Good At: Passing in general. Babb, a formerly competent passer, and the inexperienced Desormeaux combined to throw for all of three touchdowns, every one of them by Babb in the Northwestern State win. So, yes, ULL won five league games without throwing a single touchdown in any of them. Bill Sampy, a one-time all-Sun Belt pick who slipped to a still-team-best 29 catches, is the only major departure. The whole contraption only averaged 132 yards a game, 110th in the country.
Will Be Better At: All things aerial; by the same token, Babb had thrown for almost 4,000 yards in two years entering last season, and still completed 62.2 percent of his passes when he played. This is the reason Babb figures to get most of the snaps over the athletic Desormeaux: it's much easier to hand off 50 times if there's a chance you might put a couple up every now and then.
Defining Games: Oct. 7 at Houston, Oct. 28 vs. Middle Tennessee State, Nov. 4 at Troy, Nov. 11 vs. North Texas
The Goal: No less than the league title. The Cajuns shared it last year but lost out on a makeshift home bowl appearance not named for a local commodity (the shcool's two previous postseason games: the Oil Bowl, in 1944, and the Rice Bowl, in 1970) on a tiebreaker for the field goal loss to Arkansas State in October, its last defeat and, with a makes-me-sore-to-even-look-at 66 carries for 457 yards, the point they said to hell with the throwin'. ULL is the consensus league pick in the preseason and ought to be the favorite in every Sun Belt game - they might even beat a real Bowl Subdivision team, if Eastern Michigan deserves the distinction.
The Abyss: At LSU, at Texas A&M in the first two games might leave chunks of bruised Cajun flesh scattered across two states. Nobody pays any attention to the Sun Belt, so preseason projections are as sketchy as possible and utterly meaningless in every sense; North Texas, its demise often projected during a 259-game conference win streak, was finally the overwhelming championship pick here last year, went 2-9, and nobody batted an eye. So Lafayette, 11-24 under Rickey Bustle before last year, could easily be that bad.
The Reality: Play on, playa: you gone to the N'Awlins Bowl, dog, maybe even with a winning record. Assuming nobody's legs fall off from rampant overuse, that is. And it will actually involve a trip to New Orleans this time, as opposed to walking across the street after your Economics final.

2. NORTH TEXAS
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2005: 2-9 (2-5 Sun Belt) / Last Five Years: 31-30 (27-6 Sun Belt)
2006 Schedule (Do not click this link at work, in a public space such as a library or around small rodents unless you have first clicked 'Mute')

What Everyone Should Know: After four unabted years of running roughshod over everybody amidst a conference win streak spanning hundreds of games (actually, only 25, which is impressive enough), the Mean Green must consider themselves the true gatekeepers around these parts, and only on a brief hiatus in 2005 before reclaiming its rightful place in a sparsely-attended, oft-mocked December bowl game of little to no consequence.
Good At: The Green produced another 1,000-yard rusher in Patrick Cobbs, who hit 1,200 returning from injury last year. Back in the spotlight this fall steps Jamario Thomas, who led the nation in yards per game as a true freshman during the regular season in 2004 but dropped to 360 with no touchdowns behind Cobbs. Four starting lineman return to aid this effort.
Not So Good At: A once passable run defense was chewed up and spit out on a weekly basis last year, and not just by the LSUs and Kansas States on the slate: four Sun Belt opponents easily topped 200 yards rushing, and only Florida International (79 yards) failed to top 180. A lot of tackles return, and a good number of them are in the secondary.
Will Be Better At: UNT made a living of winning close games in its championship run, then proceeded to lose its last four in '05 by a combined 18 points. If a team is going to go an entire season without leading in any game by more than seven points, as the Green did in '05, a prerequisite for success is protecting the meager advantages. Which the Green did not do.
Defining Games: Sept. 9 vs. SMU, Sept. 30 vs. Middle Tennessee State, Nov. 4 at UL-Lafayette
The Goal: A year under sophomore QB Daniel Meager's belt ought to get the 4:8 INT ratio into line and complement the inevitably heavy doses of Thomas en route to reclaiming the league championship. They won't win a game outside the conference either way (even SMU is a nearly automatic loss in SMQ's mind), but judging from the littany of one-score losses last year, there's not enough of a gap to keep a more experienced bunch from challenging as usual.
The Abyss: Ding dong, the witch is dead. '05 was the new trend, not the aberration, and the losses will pile up again.
The Reality: SMQ sees no reason to give up on the league's poster child after a tough season in which it continued to play competitively even after all hope was lost by November. Call it a mulligan, and the gashing handoff-fest scheduled at Lafayette the de facto championship game.

3. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE
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2005: 4-7 (3-4 Sun Belt) / Last Five Years: 25-32 (15-17 Sun Belt)
2006 Schedule

What Everyone Should Know: The Blue Raiders were supposed to be the league's bellweather program when it started up in 2001, which should go to show that there's no bigger crapshoot in college football than the Sun Belt, because after a good start, the Blue Raiders are 9-16 against the rest of the Sun Belt the last four years. They were, however, the only SBC team to top a real I-A opponent in 2005, a 17-15 win over Vanderbilt that propelled Jay Cutler to the first round of the NFL Draft.
Good At: Defensively, the Raiders were pretty good all around in relative terms, allowing 30 only twice and holding Alabama (26), NC State (24) and the aforementioned Commodores each under 28. The unit took some graduation hits, but has two all-league type guys back in JK Sabb and Bradley Robinson.
Not So Good At: MTSU topped four yards per carry over a full game once, barely, against the should-be tackling dummies at Florida Atlantic. Everywhere else, it was handled pretty easily, and even if RB Eugene Gross got a little over 700 yards, he did it only four yards at a time.
Will Be Better At: QB Clint Marks will be in his fourth year as a starter, with 5,400-plus yards and a gaudy completion rate (68.2) to show for it, but he dipped last year and relied largely on the short game when he wasn't running for his life (37 sacks allowed). The receivers and linemen this time around have a tad more experience.
Defining Games: Sept. 30 at North Texas, Oct. 28 at UL-Lafayette, Nov. 25 vs. Troy
The Goal: The combination of defensive inexperience and past offensive impotence seems to preclude a serious conference title run, but one never know what's going to happen when a new coach (here, the legendary Rick Stockstill) is involved. Certainly MTSU is talking up a first-ever bowl bid, but they'd surpass SMQ's best case if they come in under two league losses.
The Abyss: And Lord, they're playing at Maryland, at Oklahoma, at South Carolina and hosting Louisville, all brutal, major beatdown games. Even matching the best conference record to date won't get them to .500, and the overall equality of ineptitude in the Sun Belt could land them somewhere around 3-9.
The Reality: Marks might be worth a couple wins, but the defense is going to suffer too much against the tough schedule to top 6-6.

4. TROY
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2005: 4-7 (3-4 Sun Belt) / Last Five Years: 28-30 (9-8 Sun Belt)
2006 Schedule

What Everyone Should Know: Troy has beaten two major conference programs in the last five years - Mississippi State in 2001 and Missouri in 2004 - and is the only non-champ from the Sun Belt to earn an at-large bowl bid. Which means absolutely zip to Florida State, Georgia Tech, Nebraska and probably even UAB, too, which happens to be the contingent scheduled to host the Trojans' September death tour following the opening tune up against Alabama A&M.
Good At: Defense in general, but especially against the pass, where quarterbacks not named Darrell Hackney or throwing to Sidney Rice from Steve Spurrier's system only averaged 162 yards against the Trojans' secondary. This came without much pressure on opposing quarterbacks (99th with just 17 sacks) or falling far behind against clock-grinders. The corners are both new, but based on names alone, Leodis McKelvin Jr. and Henry "Hank" Chubb earn passing grades from SMQ. They also combined for 40 tackles last year as backups, and McKelvin was all-Sun Belt as a return man.
Not So Good At: Carl Meadows and Julian Foster split time at quarterback last year, but will both sit this season behind JUCO savior Omar Haugabrook, and - barring extreme masochistic tendencies, not an impossibility - this is just fine with them because they had the living hell beat out of them: defenses averaged 3.5 sacks a game against Troy in '05, 111th in the country, and four of the five linemen responsible for allowing at least three takedowns in nine games return
Will Be Better At: Haugabrook is a top ten recruit among junior college quarterbacks, with good size (6-2, 220), good speed (4.6, according to Phil Steele, who counts the 40 times of Sun Belt Conference signal callers to fall asleep at night) and even a little familiarity (he was in for Spring practice). His presence alone, much less with the contributions of eight returning starters, ought to raise the offense from the dead, or at least from the bottom 20 of nearly every major stat category.
Defining Games: Sept. 30 at UAB, Nov. 4 vs. UL-Lafayette, Nov. 25 at Middle Tennessee
The Goal: Should they survive the first month, the Trojans have two weeks in October off (with only UL-Monroe in between, at home) with which to regroup and put themselves together for a conference run that gets SMQ's league favorites, UL-Lafayette and North Texas, at home, as well as last year's champs, Arkansas State, and Troy hadn't lost a Sun Belt game in its own stadium in three-year membership until last year's finale against Middle Tennessee. As likely a candidate to take the league as any, and managing a winning record will require it.
The Abyss: Larry Blakeney might have to turn to the intramural squads for depth by October, given the utter impossiblity of that early four-game road stretch, the kind of non-conference run much bigger and more successful would never dream of attempting. If there still is a Troy football team following those inevitable massacres, what's left could stagger into a another losing streak that knocks the train right off its tracks and into a fiery 2-10-type situation.
The Reality: Haugabrook had better to live up to every shred of hype to get the offense in balance with the defense, which kept it all somewhat hanging together last season despite complete ineptitude from their offensive counterparts.

5. ARKANSAS STATE
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2005: 6-6 (5-2 Sun Belt) / Last Five Years: 22-37 (17-15 Sun Belt)
2006 Schedule

What Everyone Should Know: ASU lost to Middle Tennessee and Army by a combined 66 points in '05, and still came away as league co-champion and "New Orleans" Bowl representative. For a program that hadn't attended a bowl in its relatively long life, this was viewed as a major accomplishment.
Good At: The league's unapologetic Representations of Centuries-Old Native American Primitivism (see below) were very sporadically awesome at generating pressure, racking up 27 total sacks in a couple of three-game bursts and now returning 23 of the those takedowns. Record in games with rampant sacking? 5-3. Without? 1-3.
Not So Good At: This is another team that also gave up a lot of sacks, though, part of the reason it was only a serviceable passing team at best (the other part of the reason being that, based on the bowl game, departed quarterback Nick Noce was apparently little more than a gritter - a completely impoverished man's Craig Krenzel - even by Sun Belt standards).
Will Be Better At: The defense was solid (it was torched by Missouri in the opener but held Oklahoma State under 300 yards two weeks later) and ought to be better with eight of the top ten tacklers back. Strong safety Tyrell Johnson had 25 tackles in one game, against North Texas, and is drawing most of the league's early defensive player of the year nods so far.
Defining Games: Sept. 9 vs. Oklahoma State (in Little Rock), Oct. 21 vs. North Texas, Nov. 25 at UL-Lafayette
The Goal: The Indians were as far from a dominant champion as a team could be last year, and losing essential components like Noce and two-time 1,000-yard grinder Antonio Warren probably preclude another title run. If it's still up in the air going into the last two weeks at Troy and Lafayette, the season ought to be considered basically a success - though ASU is not likely to win both of those games. The non-conference schedule (there's Auburn in November, but Oklahoma State's as tough as it gets before that) isn't as insane as the rest of the SBC's trying to deal with in the least injurious possible manner.
The Abyss: As with every other team around these parts, the possibility for complete and utter collapse is never far away. This team was 19 points over four games away from a 1-6 conference record last year, and are a couple turnovers - with a new, eyes-barely-opened backfield - away from last place.
The Reality: The defending quasi-champs deserve some respect - but not that much. All told, ASU will break the bank's reserves of good fortune to eclipse five wins.

6. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
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2005: 5-6 (3-4 Sun Belt) / Last ~~Five~~ Three Years: 15-29 (3-4 Sun Belt)
2006 Schedule

What Everyone Should Know: SMQ counts exactly three players on the Panthers' 100-or-so-man roster who even hail from outside of the state of Florida, much less some other God forsaken country. None of the incoming recruits are from a state other than Florida. "International," indeed - what is that, some sort of euphemism for endoctrination in advocacy for the worldwide Zionist/free mason conspiracy?
Good At: Quarterback Josh Padrick has 7,200-plus yards in three years as a starter - he's the school's all-time leading passer over a career that spans 75 percent of FIU's entire football history! - and returns Chandler Williams, who only had two touchdowns but hauled in 61 total passes last year. Both were second team all-Sun Belt, and they're not all diva about it so just shut up.
Not So Good At: Take away games against full-time I-AA teams Florida A&M and Western Kentucky, along with fellow "reclassifying/provisional" member Florida Atlantic, and the Panthers averaged a little under 84 yards on about 3 yards a carry against I-A teams. Mostly really awful I-A teams, like Troy and UL-Monroe, which combined to hold FIU to 88 total rushing yards in back-to-back games last October. Four line starters and leading rusher Ben West have departed the grisly scene.
Will Be Better At: Noting that middle linebacker Keyonvis Bouie had a fantastic stat line - 118 total tackles, 9 for loss, 2 sacks, 3 interceptions - and end Antwan Barnes is back with his 11 sacks (and, Steele breathlessly notes, a "Sch record 55m!"), the experienced defense is in good shape to improve on its 29.4 points allowed average.
Defining Games: Aug. 31 at Middle Tennessee, Sept. 30 vs. Arkansas State, Oct. 7 at North Texas
The Goal: Riding last year's three-game win streak to close the season, the Panthers can make themselves a force for the league championship with wins in its first three Sun Belt games, mentioned above. Three of the last four are at home, the fourth a neutral site down in Miami, so if FIU can't win the league, it can eke out a winning conference record.
The Abyss: Another nuclear out-of-league lineup here: at Miami, at Alabama, at Maryland, with Bowling Green and South Florida thrown in. At least they're not back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back in one block, like Troy has to face, but the next step up to .500 overall is a fantasy. Another team that could wind up in the cellar as soon as it's look at ya. Whatever that means.
The Reality: FIU closed 2005 with some momentum, but that's not going to last past a virtually certain three-game losing streak in Games Two-Four, and unless there's some way for a new line and ineffectual running game to keep the hordes away from Padrick, he might not either.

7. LOUISIANA-MONROE
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2005: 5-6 (5-2 Sun Belt) / Last Five Years: 16-41 (15-17 Sun Belt)
2006 Schedule

What Everyone Should Know: The War Hawks, nee Indians, buckled under the NCAA's PC pressure this offseason, when they declared birds of prey in deadly battle fueled by political motives to be far less offensive. This sensitive transition required a logo change, as well, or about seven of them, to be exact:

Which are nothing at all like:

ULM's last logo, of course, was a virtual carbon copy of Florida State's arrow, so we can surmise that creativity is not exactly the university's strong suit.
Good At: Part of it was the athleticism of departed QB Steven Jyles to avoid rushers, but the offensive line returns intact after allowing only nine sacks in a little over 400 pass attempts last year, definitely one of the best rates anywhere. More than half of those came against Georgia and Arkansas - and this from a line made up exclusively of freshmen and sophomores. The same five ought to be back next year, too.
Not So Good At: Minus Jyles and all-SBC receiver Drouzon Quillen, the just OK passin game's on its way to "dead upon arrival" territory. New QB Kinsmon Lancaster had one start last year as a redshirt freshman - as a wide receiver.
Will Be Better At: Running, perhaps, if not swallowed up by an inability to keep nine men out of the box, but certainly not stopping the run. ULM was below average in that regard again in '05, and lost all four of its front line starters. New guys have done zip.
Defining Games: Oct. 7 at Arkansas State, Nov. 11 at Florida International, Dec. at UL-Lafayette
The Goal: Any team that finishes as close as ULM did to an outright league title last year enters the season expecting to be right back in the hunt, but Jyles' exit puts those dreams a bit out of reach. A break-even season overall would be a triumph.
The Abyss: The ~~Indians~~ Hawks of War aren't going to lose to a truly awful Alcorn State team in the opener, but that's the only "very likely" win. Like every other team in this hopeless conference, the potential feast is every bit as likely to wind up in a dusty, famine-stricken field in the middle of nowhere, with no way back.
The Reality: SMQ has no clue whatsoever. But ULM is one of the few Sun Belt teams that lost its undisputed best player, and not enough else returns to stop a serious fall after as a result.

8. FLORIDA ATLANTIC
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2005: 2-9 (2-5 Sun Belt) / Last ~~Five~~ Four Years: 28-30 (2-5 Sun Belt)
2006 Schedule

What Everyone Should Know:Florida Atlantic is an actual school with an actual football program that has been around for five years, all coached by ~~The Wizard of Oz~~ Howard Schnellenberger and the last two in the same "reclassifying/provisional" boat as Florida Internatonal. Very, very bored Phil Steele fans might note that the team did go 9-3 in 2004, its first season in "the big time" (a year after going 11-3 as a full-fledged I-AA team), and beat Hawaii and future colleagues North Texas and Middle Tennessee State in the first three weeks of the season. They didn't beat another I-A team, went on to lose nine last year and fielded possibly one of the worst offenses of all time.

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Pay no attention to that team at the bottom of the standings

Good At: Not much. Charles Pierre and D'Brickashaw Onyenegecha Watch List candidate Dilvory Edgecomb could conceivably be a serviceable running back combo.
Not So Good At: SMQ is only judging by statistics here, but 13.5 points per game is pretty futile, especially when you're also giving up about 31. A brand new quarterback (Sean Clayton) isn't going to get you much further without major, unforeseeable improvement from everyone else, even if he is a Michigan State transfer (he is).
Will Be Better At: With all four defensive linemen back, plus both the outside linebackers, there is no way the Owls can finish another entire season in the range of 6 sacks. That's one every other game. The whole front four was comprised of freshmen last year, who are no sophomores an

IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE

2006-08-10T17:39:00.000-07:00

LIKE SANDS TROUGH THE HOURGLASS, THESE ARE THE
GAMES OF OUR LIVES
Irrational Exuberance
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All fans and even sporadically enthusiastic social hangers-on of the game can all recall a great game, a fun game, a drunken game, an intense finish that uplifted them for an afternoon, or an entire weekend. Perhaps longer. In honor of the impending kickoff to the 2006 season, SMQ resolves over the next three weeks to share a few of the personal moments that have most fueled and reinforced h is irreversible affection and obsession for the apparent foolishness known as college football. Appropriately, all recollections are heavily distorted, sentimentalized and not to be trusted in any way.

Sept. 29, 2001: Southern Miss 3, UAB 0
There was nothing remotely special about UAB visiting Hattiesburg in 2001, a non-televised, non-rivalry, late ev ening kickoff between one team expecting a par-for-the-course victory in the hunt for a conference title and another seeking a minor upset that would vault it towards, at least, it first-ever bowl berth.

Yet, for no reason whatsoever, the crowd was absolutely off its rocker. It was maybe 25,000 people, probably a few less (official attendance was nearly 30,000, but this is definitely inflated as a matter of course), but by the second quarter it felt like a Rose Bowl full of maniacs.

The weather could have been reminiscent of the Rose Bowl, and this is the only possible explanation for the madness: the start time put the sun just behind the West side of the stadium, where it peaked through the tunnel entrances to those of us in the student section on the East side, and made the whole sky to that side of the field look about like the amazing vistas you regularly see in the backgrounds of NCAA Football games. SMQ remembers as a kid going to USM games, and being on that brick-deluged campus that turns so appealingly orange late on clear afternoon, and hearing the chants and the very loud band and thinking something like, "Wow, this is so cool, this is what college people do," these amazing college people w ith amazing-looking girls with them, who just go about the momentous activity of att ending a major college football game like it's routine. And for some indescribable reason (entirely sober SMQ did not, stunningly, have an amazing-looking girl, or any girl, with him) the atmosphere before this random game against this random, less-than-m ediocre team was one of the only ones he attended while actually in college that recalled this pre-adolescent memory in his mind.

But that feeling would have evaporated and meant nothing if not for the tension throughout the game, the singular kind of an xiety the favored team has while winning but being outplayed all along, while waiting for the other shoe to inevitably drop. Southern Miss went up early on with a field goal, and proceeded to do zip the remainder of the game offensively. But, unlike the cross-your-fingers unit USM trots out these days, the defense in 2001 still relished this sort of situation as a chance to back up the hype. In this game, it did, giving up a drive or two but always forcing a punt or too-long field goal opportunity before it got too harrowing: UAB missed two field goals, a short one (25 yards) in the first and one in the fourth from 48 yards out.

It was the shot in the second quarter, though, that was probably heard around the Southeast. Or the Pine Belt. Or wherever fine shots are heard. But as far as SMQ is concerned, the 24-or-so-yard field goal attempt by Rhett Gallego is USM's "register on the seismograph" moment, if there was a seismograph on campus and if the collective voices of 22,000 people could move it. Because, after UAB mounted its best drive, down to inside the USM five-yard-line, then actually scored - on a two-yard pass that was called back for illegal men downfield...illegal men downfield from the two-yard-line=fate, folks) - and was subsequently stopped on third down, the inveitable chant started: Block that kick! Block that kick! Etc. Except this was not an empty chant; it was a command, an absolute, non-negotiable demand for our team to block this inevitably successful attempt, the tying score that would defeat the momentum of the goal line stand and actually require USM's offense to score again, which pretty much everyone even in the second quarter knew was not going to happen on this night. It rose and shook and crescendoed. We went ballistic with a concentrated psychic command to turn this kick away, in the name of all that is good and right and -

And it worked. The crowd willed a kick to be blocked! We did that! SMQ has no idea who actually got a hand on it, but "bedlam" would not begin to describe the collective reaction to the ball fluttering in the wrong direction. We just flipped out. It was a frenzy. It made no sense. SMQ remembers specifically thinking 'This place is way too loud for this many p eople, for a blocked field goal in the second quarter," and trying to communicate this to the guy standing next to me, but instead just yelling and jumping around, too.

All of this, of course, is entirely in SMQ's head, he probably being more likely to appreciate a 3-0 thriller (or even consider regarding such a thing as a "thriller") than the rest of the allegedly maniacal crowd. Definitely this is an exaggeration. Video evidence probably exists to prove the overstatement of this memory.

But screw that. It was freakin' loud. For pretty much no good reason. The following week, Jeff Bower wrote a letter to the editor in Southern Miss' student paper (before SMQ worked there) commending the fans for making more noise than he had ever heard at home, and for being generally insane, just because. There was no other precedent for this during SMQ's tenure in Hattiesburg, other than when the president of the alumni association extolled the student section for its "assistance" in an unlikely over time comeback win over Houston in 2004, the game in which those same students earned the "Worst Fans in America" tag from deeply offended Houston Chronicle reporter Michael Murphy (when you're too vulgar and unruly for a sports reporter - you are an awesome student section!)
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NCAA OFFICIALLY CONFIRMS: 'BOWL CHAMPIONSHIP' A MYTH!

2006-08-09T16:37:00.000-07:00

NCAA OFFICIALLY CONFIRMS: 'BOWL CHAMPIONSHIP' AN OXYMORONIC MYTH!
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Diligent fans may have noticed the NCAA's stealthy re-branding effort this week, changing the names of its two Division I, uh, divisions from Division I-A and Division I-AA to the "Division I Football-Bowl Subdivision" and the "Division I Football-Championship Subdivision."

As ridiculously un-catchy and unlikely to take hold in the lexicon as it could possibly be, maybe. Yet, in it's own clumsy way, perhaps this change is the NCAA's effort to distance itself from the foolishness of the "bowl championship" system so precious to the biggest boys:

Conference commissioners and other officials who came up with the new monikers sought the action "to move away from using those terms (I-A and I-AA) more broadly than what they were intended for," said David Berst, the NCAA's vice president for Division I.

"We'll attempt" to drop them, Berst said, in conjunction with the Dec. 22 I-AA championship, which will become the "Division I football championship."

(Emphasis SMQ's)

Wait, doesn't the inviolable Bowl Championship Series crown the absolute, final do-not-disturb Division I football champion?

No, it doesn't, nor does the Associated Press poll (or any other poll), because as far as the NCAA's concerned, there is still no "official" football champion among the top division - the "National Champion" is an arbitrary and poll-driven, and hence media-driven, distinction. When the sport's governing body doesn't recognize a champion, and said 'championship' could theoretically be awarded to any random team a pack of writers pleases, it's not a real championship. It is, quite literally, a mythical title.

Meanwhile, the NCAA awards legitimate championships based on completely non-arbitrary factors, such as winning on the actual field of play in a playoff, in every other sport, rightfully dubs these events from start to finish "The NCAA [Insert Sport] Championship" and rings the distinction from the rafters. All it's really done here is attach a suitably ludicrous title to match the ludicrous reality.

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You can't beat the real thing

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CAPITAL ONE BOWL ZEN

2006-08-09T11:14:00.000-07:00

LIKE SANDS TROUGH THE HOURGLASS, THESE ARE THE GAMES OF OUR LIVES
Capital One Bowl Zen
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All fans and even sporadically enthusiastic social hangers-on of the game can all recall a great game, a fun game, a drunken game, an intense finish that uplifted them for an afternoon, or an entire weekend. In honor of the impending kickoff to the 2006 season, SMQ resolves over the next three weeks to share a few of the personal moments that have fueled and reinforced his irreversible affection and obsession for the apparent foolishness known as college football.

TODAY: January 1, 2005: Iowa 30, LSU 25
Ah, these were simpler times: gas was ludicrous at $1.59.9, Hurricane Katrina was months away. Young SMQ, having eluded the unsettling and persistent New Year's Eve advances of a lonely, anonymous, middle-aged aunt-type at the wedding party of a high school friend's father, was laboring to conceal his only January 1 hangover to date when father of SMQ asked, "Did you wear a tie last night? It's in the driveway."

Consequently, the morning's games were a haze. Vince Young (and, we forget, the also-spectacular Braylon Edwards) would be opening eyes everywhere hours later, but early on, the Gator, Cotton and Outback bowls were less enthralling than the largest possible cup of water.

Anyone inclined to recall such trivialities at all will remember the 2005 Capital One Citrus Bowl almost exclusively for Drew Tate's desperation heave ho to win, improbably hauled in by fifth-year senior Warren Holloway for his first career touchdown at the gun, and Tate's spontaneous, sprinting, helmet-pumping reaction. Which was itself suitably memorable.

For SMQ, though, the fog briefly lifted sometime late in the third quarter, just prior to LSU's insertion of hyped, untested redshirt freshman JaMarcus Russell for senior Marcus Randall and struggling Matt Flynn, around the time Iowa launched consecutive drives of 12, 8 and 12 plays to build a 12-point lead early in the final quarter, when ennui morphed into a barely describable state of something like nirvana: Michael Jordan once described "The Zone" in basketball as looking at the basket and seeing a big ol' empty bucket, and similarly, very gradually, SMQ began to view the game in what he felt was its truth, stripped of adornment. Not the game of football, generally, but of college football specifically, of its messiness, inconsistency, of this huge, impossibly wide field that looks so confined when the professionals step on, of the substitutions, the depth and the mass quantity of athletes directly involved, and fleeting successes immediately forgotten but also quietly carried around with them forever, of the often subtle and sometimes convulsive ebbs and flows, momentum and strategy born of trial and error and the effortless focus that comes with experience and immersion in a game that takes its time, breathes, evolves and develops its own specific rhythm – the unpredictable but palpable and inherent rhythm, precisely, in danger of succumbing to the commercialized creep of conformity. An acute awareness of the haphazard process of micro-evolution, whether or not its exact nature could be understood by the lay observer.

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Mahayanan conception of the paramitas and the ideal of the bodhisattva's universal salvific power: Drew Tate hands off

And of its ultimate indifference: after Russell had come off the bench to lead LSU to two late touchdowns for a late one-point lead – and SMQ had returned to a more normal state of basic nausea - the un-thinking desperation of the Tate-Hollingsworth heave mocked in a way the effort and sweat that had preceded it, and exhilaratingly justified it all at once. On other levels, Tate’s reaction, in the unlikely event the game allowed him to be in the position to react to anything at all, would have been a penalty.

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2006 PREVIEW: ANATOMY OF AN UNDERDOG

2006-08-08T05:46:00.000-07:00

2006 PREVIEW: ANATOMY OF AN UNDERDOG
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The upcoming season is wdely considered a toss-up, a free-for-all in the absence of a dominant overseer a la the Miami, Oklahoma and Southern Cal teams we've lauded at various intervals over the past few seasons as the inevitable conquerers on a death march to the mythical championship. The first of the official do-not-disturb preseason polls does show a general consensus among the top teams, if no coherence regarding their precise order: Notre Dame, Texas, Southern Cal, Auburn, Oklahoma and especially Ohio State are the top six in some form or another in virtually every poll. West Virginia's also finding its way into the mix, usually as a "darkhorse" team - albeit a "surprise" everyone except SMQ seems to agree upon.

Recent history, though, is rife with party crashers at or near the top of year-end polls - the most recent examples being Auburn in 2004 and West Virginia and Penn State last year - teams usually construed as ascending "from nowhere," even if the folks paying attention had projected only slightly less success before the season. This is typical enough, of course, that when a forecaster's been doing this a while, the question becomes not if there's going to be an underdog making a startling run at the mythical title, but who, exactly, the dog's going to be. Preseason polls, as inexact a science as they come, seem to be wholly inadequate for the illogical, counterintuitive logic that would appear necessary for some moron to actually project, say, a Peyton Manning-less Tennessee running the table in 1998. So most people don't sweat it, and instead look at the pevious season and execute a couple flip flops that make sense to them. And at the end of almost every year: Who would have ever thought it, Verne? Nobody saw this one coming... Maybe a few wannabes look good entering the year - but never that good. If they do, everybody notices, creates an echo chamber that inflates said team's preseason stock and then watches the inevitable bust with total bafflement.

But even if we're not willing to pull the trigger on sticking a team that went 7-5 last year among the top couple spots, we can look at the record and see what those underdogs made good have had going for them as a group. Studying the traits of past poll-climbers and plumbing the guts of the early tallies this year, SMQ's found a few teams he thinks can pull the impossible trick of class-hopping the 10-15 spaces that separate them from the designated championship pack.

These dozen teams from the past decade provided the model:

1996 Arizona State: From 6-5 in 1995 to 11-1 PAC Ten champs; unranked in preseason
1997 Michigan: From 8-4 in 1996 to 12-0 co-Mythical National Champions; average preseason rank: 13
1998 Tennessee: Lost Peyton Manning after last, best shot ended with an SEC title but another humilitating loss to Florida and the wrong end of a bowl romp to Nebraska in 1997, then upset Florida, went 13-0 and won the Mythical Championship; average preseason rank: 9
1999 Virginia Tech: Lost quarterback from good 9-3 team in 1998 but rode Michael Vick to Big East title and undefeated regular season before Sugar Bowl loss to Florida State; average preseason rank: 11
2000 Oklahoma: Improved to 7-5 Independence Bowl losers in Bob Stoops' first season and to 13-0 Texas-crushing, average preseason rank: average preseason rank: 21
2000 Oregon State: Improved to 7-5 in 1999, then blew up to 11-1 in 2000 and crushed Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl; unranked in preaseason
2001 Maryland: From 3-8 to stunning 10-2 ACC champions in Ralph Friedgen's first season; unranked in preseason
2002 Ohio State: Struggled to 7-5 Jim Tressel's first season, rebounded to 12-0 with new quarterback and upset Miami for Mythical Championship in Fiesta Bowl; average preseason rank: 11
2003 LSU: Won SEC in 2001, then fell to 8-5; co-Mythical Champs after 12-1 season in 2003; average preseason rank: 14
2004 Auburn: Top five pick after 9-4 2002, crushed by USC in opener and finished 8-5; rebounded by running the table and being snubbed in favor of the same Trojans for 2003 MNC; average preseason rank: 10
2005 West Virginia: 2004 Big East favorite slipped out of rankings, then replaced the entire offensive backfield and roared back with league title and upsets of Louisville and Georgia en route to 11-1; unranked in preseason
2005 Penn State: 7-11 in two years prior to 11-1, league-championship, two-seconds-from-undefeated 2005; average preseason rank: 30

Out of that sample group, we can suss out a few Factors That Matter:

Whup-Ass Run Defense: This is le element crucial: eleven of the twelve teams above held opponents below 3 yards per carry for the season, and even the outlier, undersized but blazing 2004 Auburn, only allowed 3.3 per carry. This seems to be a crucial element for every big winner, but not an absolute requirement if you're merely decent and have gobs of offensive talent to make up the difference, a la USC and Texas last year, who allowed 3.8 and 3.7 yards a pop, respectively (and UCLA, which won 10 with the lowest-ranked run defense in the country). For a generally non-dominant, win-the-close-ones team on the rise, though, stuffing pretty much everybody is non-negotiable.
The Exceptions: None

Steady, upper-class quarterback: Notice this doesn't have to be 'experienced' quarterback, and certainly doesn't have to be 'stud,' as Arizona State's Jake Plummer would be the only player in question who could conceivably fit that category entering the fateful season. Josh Heupel and Michael Robinson parlayed big years in the right system into high Heisman finishes, but both came from relative obscurity, to which (perhaps dangerously assuming Robinson's bid to catch on as a wide receiver - heh, "catch on," get it? - in the NFL is a prelude to a brief journeyman bit) they quickly returned. Brian Griese and Jason Campbell became hot commodities for mere competence and gumption amidst absurd, or at least very good, surrounding talent after mediocre overall careers. And then there are the Tee Martins, Craig Krenzels and Matt Maucks, first-year starting juniors all (and don't forget Shaun Hill, a freshly-starting senior), who were just good enough in relative anonymity. Oregon State started Jonathan Smith - you don't remember him? Krenzel's success, especially, should demonstrate that a big-armed slinger isn't a necessity as long as your guy generally makes the right decisions, never gives the big game away, Manning-style, and understands he's not the star of the show.
The Exceptions: 1999 Virginia Tech (Michael Vick), 2005 West Virginia (Pat White)

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The hope of a nation

Relatively New Coach (Sub-factor: The Big Hire): Ten of our dogs had top guys who had been around less than five years, most of them having arrived in "big splash" fashion as either a previously successful head coach (Nick Saban, Dennis Erickson, Tommy Tuberville, Jim Tressel) or as a hot coordinator with years of well-recognized success as an assistant at at least one major program (Bob Stoops, Rich Rodriguez, Ralph Friedgen). Neither Georgia nor Louisville is represented here, but their 2002 and 2004 teams could conceivably be among this group, and Mark Richt and Bobby Petrino among the high-profile assistants turned BMOC. For Stoops, Erickson and Tressel, it only took two years to hit the magic number; Saban needed four and Tuberville five. Friedgen worked the most immediate miracle turnaround (though also the briefest). Lloyd Carr's mythical title came in Year Three following Gary Moeller's departure. So fresh blood is a good thing.
The Exceptions: 1998 Tennessee, 1999 Virginia Tech, 2005 Penn State

Upward Trend (Sub-factor: The Rebound): Correlated with the new coach factor is a general air of ascendency that's apparent even before the accelerated push to the top. Oklahoma went from 3-8 in 1998 to 7-5 in Bob Stoops' first season and 13-0 his second. LSU had suffered two consecutive, confounding losing years under Gerry DiNardo, and was claiming crystal balls as sacrosanct and inviolable four years after Nick Saban came on. Ohio State fired John Cooper, went 7-5 and made a January bowl in Tressel's first season, and won the MNC his second. Terry Bowden had run Auburn virtually into the ground after his great start there, and Tuberville resuscitated the program in a couple seasons. Oregon State had its first winning season in decades in 1999 (7-5), and then a field goal away from being undefeated in Dennis Erickson's second year. It's important to note the trend is general and not necessarily gradual, and the big year can come off a quasi-mulligan: LSU and Auburn, for example, entered 2003 and 2004, respectively, a year removed coming off disappointing efforts in what was originally scheduled as the "big breakthrough." LSU had won the SEC and the Sugar Bowl in 2001 and was on its way in '02 when Matt Mauck went down against Florida, then ended the season with a ridiculous loss to Arkansas that knocked the Tigers out of the SEC Championship and a bowl whippin' at the hands of Texas to finish 8-5. The next season, with lowered expectations? 13-1, Sugar Bowl/BCS champs. Similarly, Auburn was ranked in a lot of top fives heading into 2003, but got walloped at home by USC and then lost at Georgia Tech its first two games, and that was that. Sitting significantly lower entering 2004, essentially the same players blew up and ran the table. West Virginia, too, was the overwhelming favorite in the newly watered-down Big East going into 2004, and had (SMQ is guessing) its highest general preseason ranking in school history. So the Mountaineers went 8-5 and lost the league title in the finale to middling Pittsburgh. The following year, as an inexperienced team picked decidedly behind Louisville and Pitt in every estimation: league champs and a tie for the highest poll finish in school history.
The Exceptions: 1996 Arizona State, 1997 Michigan, 1998 Tennessee, 2001 Maryland, 2005 Penn State

Toughest Game(s) at Home: Toughest game meaning "best opponent," rather than "closest game," as these are (paradoxically?) not the same thing. Anyway, most of these teams had tough games at home and on the road, but all of them played host to at least one of the schedule's heavyweights, and usually the heaviest. Arizona State hosted and stunned defending two-time champs/corn-fed death squadron Nebraska in 1996; Michigan got Ohio State in Ann Arbor in 1997; Tennessee broke the slide against Florida in Knoxville; Virginia Tech hosted Miami in 1999; Oklahoma vaulted to No. 1 with a home win over Nebraska; Ohio State got Washington State and Michigan at home in 2002; LSU hosted Georgia and Auburn in 2003; Auburn, in turn, then hosted LSU and Georgia in 2004; and West Virginia (Louisville) and Penn State (Ohio State) each took down their biggest prizes on home turf last year. There are a lot of nice road wins among that crew, and a few home losses, too (LSU to Florida in 2003, West Virginia to Virginia Tech in '05) but in general, there's no place like home.
Exceptions: 2000 Oregon State (at Washington, a loss), 2001 Maryland (at Florida State, a loss)

The average preseason rank of the above teams that actually won or played for the mythical title (including undefeated and unloved Auburn) was 12.7; the other five major surprises (1997 Arizona State, 2000 Oregon State, 2001 Maryland, 2005 West Virginia, 2005 Penn State) were each unranked entering the season. Collectively, they were coming off an average of roughly 7-5/8-4 seasons the previous year.

So, based on all that, on to this year's contenders ("Average Rank" via the simple math from the good folks at Mark May Be Wrong):

CALIFORNIA
Average Rank: 13
The Fates Are Smiling: Whup-Ass Run Defense; Relatively New Coach; Upward Trend
He's only a sophomore [a redshirt sophomore - ed. Ahhh...], but maybe maybe maybe the quarterback will be steady here. "Steady" quarterback, you say, on a team that flopped between the inaccurate and interception-prone and the socially violent last year? SMQ is giving them the benefit of the doubt because of a) the return of Nate Longshore, the starter entering 2005, who was a well-regarded recruit before being hurt early on (like Matt Mauck - only much earlier), and b) Jeff Tedford's consistent history of producing very good quarterbacking from whatever random "talent" happens to be around. Plus this offense has three running backs coming back who collectively averaged more than seven yards per carry last year, so the quarterback only has to be in the "good enough to not blow it" category.

As for the rest of the criteria, it's pretty solid: Cal allowed about a half-yard more per carry last year than its underrated '04 defense gave up, but that number was still just 3.3, and six front seven starters are back. The defensive line, with all-PAC Ten/running back-devouring tackle Brandon Mebane next to a returning 333-pounder (Matthew Malele), is ranked as the second-best nationally by Phil Steele and sixth by The Sporting News and as the best in the PAC Ten (for whatever that's worth) by Athlon, none of which takes into account the very good assortment of linebackers also returning to make the run D sufficiently whoop-ass (SMQ really likes the productive, veteran corners, Tim Mixon and Daymeion Hughes, too, but that's for another day). And would anyone deny the 'ascending' tag, given the team was 8-25 in three years prior to Tedford's arrival and 33-17 since? The '04 team, a ten-game winner that could have beaten SC in L.A., is the model, and quarterback is the only element keeping this group from everybody's top five. The talent exists to make the rebound.
Won't Happen Because: Toughest Game Is On the Road
Southern Cal is on the road, where Cal hasn't won since the Grover Cleveland Administration (the second one). Tennessee's a bitch of trip at the other end of the schedule, too, which forms a travel tandem greater than any of those model surprise teams had to overcome to make their run.

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You really don't want a part of Cal's defense

LOUISVILLE
Average Rank: 12
The Fates Are Smiling: Steady Upper-class Quarterback; Relatively New Coach; Upward Trend; Toughest Game(s) at Home
Jedi knight Brian Brohm, assuming he's back from his ACL injury, might redefine "steady" by the end of this season. And Bobby Petrino's put a decent program that was starting to slip at the end of John L. Smith's reign of short temper onto another level. Like Cal, the thinking here should be that 2004 was the model and '05 - still very good at 9-3 and a New Year's Day bowl game - the aberration. Most encouraging: U of Hell gets Miami and West Virginia in Papa John's Stadium (Mmmmm-MMM! Those are some tasty touchdowns! But not as tasty as Papa John's!)
Won't Happen Because: Run defense is only OK
Last year's group was pretty stout, allowing right at 3.0 over the course of the season, but three starting D-linemen graduated - that includes Elvis Dumervil, whose amazing 20 sacks added 150 negative yards to that total, i.e. essentially negating the entire Cincinnati game by himself - and West Virginia and South Florida did a torch job on them to begin with (251 and 281, respectively). Of the new guys, Phil Steele, as usual, is most eloquent: PS#302, PS#397, PS#330. The linebackers, at least, were in the top 100.

NEBRASKA
Average Rank: 20
The Fates Are Smiling: Whup-ass Run Defense; Steady Upper-class Quarterback; Relatively New Coach; Upward Trend
Call the 5-6 in '04 a mulligan, and this situation looks a lot like Oklahoma in 2000 or Ohio State in 2002: new coach takes storied program to ho hum, not-as-impressive-as-it-sounds 8-4 record, then takes off for the moon with a veteran team in Year Two. The front seven - whose only new members are very large, highly-touted tackles with promisingly unpronounceable names - had one horrible four-game stretch last year but otherwise was all up in opponent backfields (a national-best 50 sacks and more than 10 tackles for loss per game) and wound up allowing just 3.2 a carry. Senior Zac Taylor can be Rich Gannon. Uh, maybe. But even if it was only a two-game winning streak to close the year, Bill Callahan had this thing going in the right direction at the end of last season.
Won't Happen Because: Toughest Game Is a Road Trip...er, Depending On Your Perspective
Nebraska does get Texas at home, but before that has to head out to Southern Cal for a visit that probably looked a lot more one-sided in the other direction when it was orginally scheduled around the turn of the decade.

IOWA
Average Rank: 17
The Fates Are Smiling: Steady Upper-class Quarterback; Toughest Game(s) at Home
Drew Tate's is more than "steady": Drew Tate is the hole-in-one-draining man, reminiscent of Plummer in a lot of ways, and certainly capable of taking this offense a very long way with the proper tools and security. Ohio State comes a-calling to Iowa City in September, a revenge game for the not-even-that-close 31-6 smackdown OSU laid on the Hawkeyes last year.
Won't Happen Because: Whup-ass Run Defense...Without Those Linebackers?; How Relative Are We Talking With the 'New' Coach and Upward Trend?
Each of these categories could perceivably be put in the 'Smiling' category, making the Hawkeyes the perfect storm of experienced, slighted vengeance on the bounceback, but Kirk Ferentz has been here eight years now. Certainly Iowa is in an "upward trend" compared to his first year, 1-10 in 1999, but not compared to his fourth, the 10-2, co-league champions of 2002 (a team that could have served as a model surprise, now that SMQ thinks about it). That squad looks like the real breakthrough, peak team of the early Ferentz Era, whereas the subsequent versions have settled into a nice little niche among the top three/four annually in the Big Ten; the trend, in other words, seems to have flattened. As for the run defense, it ought to be good, and a unit that returns all four linemen and one linebacker from a surprisingly stout group that only allowed 3.2 per carry would generally be separated into the "whup-ass" category. That's tough to say, though, when more than 300 combined tackles graduated in the form of Chad Greenway and Abdul Hodge. That's not a career number - that's 300 tackles in just 2005. Replacements Mike Humpal and alien overlord Mike Klinkenborg are getting good reviews, but SMQ will only go so far as to call this run D "solid" or maybe even "tough."

Other teams considered: Florida State, South Carolina, Arkansas, Arizona State

So is SMQ willing to pull the trigger on Cal or Nebraska number one? Uh, well, suuuuurre. We'll get back to you on that one. But USC, at least, ought to be keeping their eyes open for both.
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STAY TUNED

2006-08-07T19:48:00.000-07:00

STAY TUNED
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SMQ had a good posting plan ready to rock this week, so of course it was immediately wrecked by major day job overtime along with the simultaneous malfunction of home Web service and vital components of his lower back. Should be on track again very, very shortly.
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THE RAP SHEET

2006-08-04T16:21:00.000-07:00

THE RAP SHEET
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The week in eligibility-crippling issues - legal, academic, institutional and otherwise...

First priority this week, clearing out the department of redundancy department:

On Wednesday, SMQ questioned the basis of a report claiming "numerous sources" had outed recently departed USC safety Brandon Ting, whose embattled, big shot physician father worked very closely with alleged juicer Barry Bonds, as a steroid user less than a week after he and his twin, Ryan - not yet accused of using any illegal substances - left the team under the auspices of focusing on medical school. Not that SMQ has any difficulty believing accusations of wrongdoing eminating from Los Angeles, or their not-so-subtle connections to much bigger fish to the north, but because none of the stories he's read about this contain any new information beyond a vaguely-sourced opening sentence/paragraph.

Somebody's got to go on the record here, because as it stands, the USC steroid 'scandal' is still confined essentially to a single 'report' without a corroborating quote, or any quote at all, from anyone remotely involved. No names of accusers are mentioned, no paper trail. No one in Wu Ting Clan can be reached. Carroll has a measly non-quote in only the L.A. Times version. This is the sort of story that cries for at least a tenuous grip to a credible foundation, and yet not even sketchy anonymous sources have opened their mouths anywhere in print in three days. Absent that crucial reporting factor, this one should probably have sat in the "on deck" pile until they did.

SMQ quickly addressed the fallout from the sudden dismissal of starting Oklahoma quarterback Rhett Bomar, as did Stewart Mandel and Pete Fiutak, who each fret over "the national landscape" minus this 54.2 percent-passing junior. Fiutak also, more competently, emphasized that the proportion of knuckleheadedness among college athletes is fairly representative of 18-22-year-old idiocy as group, and gets point particularly for pointing out the hyprocrisy of NCAA regulations - Jeff Samardzija and Tom Zbikowski, meet Drew Tate and Jeremy Bloom - and debunking the "good ol' boys" myth of crew-cutted youngsters who stayed late every day after a challenging study session. John David Crowe never tasered anybody and tossed them into a trunk (so far as we know), but up till a decade or two ago, excessive cash payments - and probably a few free "test drives" - for "working" at a car dealership across from campus didn't have to be very under-the-table.

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Bear Bryant's Ghost is shocked - shocked! - by Rhett Bomar's actions

In the meantime, Bomar is already being courted by the Division II Texas A&M-Commerce Lions, who have asked him to transfer if declared eligible by the NCAA. Re: Bomar's old job, Peter was right and SMQ was wrong, as Bob Stoops - after dissing Bomar and lineman J.D. Quinn for "knowingly" breaking the rules - declared former starting QB and converted receiver Paul Thompson as Bomar's replacement. The Joey Halzle Era will have to wait at least a few weeks, it appears.

As for Bomar, he joins The Rap Sheet's "Mistake Watch" with his, you know, comments to KOCCO-TV Thursday:

"One thing I just want to say to the fans, to my coaches, to my teammates: I'm sorry. I made a mistake. I mean, I feel bad for it. I respect the decision that Coach Stoops made and the administration above him. We have to live with that, you know, we have to move on. But I wish the best for the program. I cared about this program and I don't want anybody to think that we didn't. You know, we made a mistake, and I have to live with that and I accept, you know, responsibility for my actions. But I just want everybody to know that I'm truly sorry and I just wish the best for the state of Oklahoma." -- Rhett Bomar

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Texas A&M Commerce: At least we're not Baylor

BLOWN, "way, way out of proportion," the Auburn "scandal" trumpeted by The New York Times and sociology prof James Gundlach last month, according to fellow profs Greg Kowalski and Mark Konty. Both told the AP it ain't no thang, with Konty laying it down:

"This is an internal curriculum matter, period," he said Friday. "The only reason it made it into the press is because of the hook that athletes are taking the classes."

Administration is already in overdrive to get class loads under control and reduce the appearance of, in academic terminology, "fishiness."

IMMORTALIZED, Ellis T. Jones, the afore-linked San Jose State cornerback who was charged Thursday with four counts of robbery, one count of attempted robbery, four counts of assault with a stun gun, two counts of false imprisonment, one count of kidnapping in the commission of a robbery and one count of second degree burglary for "allegedly [using] classified ads on craigslist to lure robbery victims" in four June burglaries. [emphasis SMQ's]

4 + 1 + 4 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 13 felony counts, math majors. And when seven of them are related to kidnapping, false imprisonment and assault with a stun gun, we are talking about the kind of felonious talent most teams only see once every couple decades. Ellis T.: singlehandedly raising the bar.

Officer Gina Tepoorten offered details to The Mercury-News:

In the first, about 1:15 p.m., Jones met a 23-year-old San Jose man in the 900 block of North Bayshore Road to buy a laptop computer. The man opened his trunk to show Jones the computer, at which point Jones allegedly shocked the man with a stun gun, took his money and the laptop, demanded he climb into the trunk of his car and closed it. The man was able to unlock the trunk using the electronic key chain in his pocket, Tepoorten said.

Then, at 2:46 p.m., Jones allegedly met two Daly City teenagers who had answered an ad offering an Xbox 360. The teens picked Jones up in the 1000 block of Third Street, and from the back seat of their car, Jones allegedly shocked one teen with a stun gun and demanded their money, Tepoorten said.

Finally, shortly after 10:30 p.m., Jones met a 22-year-old Berkeley man who thought he was buying an Xbox 360. When they met in the carport of an apartment complex at 2100 Canoas Garden Ave., Jones allegedly climbed into the man's car, pointed a gun at him and took his cash, wallet and cell phone, Tepoorten said.

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Ellis T. Jones always gets his man

SPURNED, former Central Michigan running back Jerry Seymour, by his old school following his request to return after his Aug. 21 sentencing for attempted assault with a dangerous weapon in a fatal 2004 beating outside a bar. Seymour was a 1,000-yard rusher in 2003, and according to the article, vowed via his attorney to "do the right thing" to fulfill his athletic and academic potential once he's free from prison. Texas A&M-Commerce, perhaps?

Click here to read Ceantral Michigan Life's complete day-by-day rundown of the July trial against Seymour and former teammate James Earl King, Jr., two of the six former Chippewas and nine people overall charged with the death of DeMarcus Graham, which remains an under-exposed story two years after the fact.

Quick hits of the week in alleged crimes, negligence and graft:

Red-Raiders.com: Tech DB suffers stab wound (from ESPN: "All of a sudden the thing escalates and Anthony gets stabbed," Leach said. Out of nowhere!)

Sports Illustrated (AP): Tennessee dismisses one player, suspends another

Sports Illustrated (AP):West Virginia's Barrett may become ineligible

FOX Sports (AP): Former Ohio State tailback Clarett hires 2 attorneys
(Related: USA Today: Clarett proves being home again isn't always good

USA Today: Wake Forest recruit accused of rape won't enroll this fall

FOX Sports: Cal QB Levy reinstated to team
(Related: CBS Sportsline: Levy can practice, but won't QB Tennessee game (Linguistic quibble from SMQ: Can 'QB' or 'quarterback' be used as a verb? This seems to work here, but not for any other position - would you ever see, for instance, 'A.J. Hawk will lineback for Packers'?))

ESPN: Air Force suspends kicker for violating school standards

Daily Herald: Utah State players face misdemeanor drug charges
ESPN: Marijuana last straw as Utah St. dismisses LB Davis, Utah State drops linebacker Downs from team

The Charlotte Observer: Whiteside, Erving will miss first three games;
Spurrier suspends pair for violating ‘university policy’ (HT: EDSBS, via Fan Blogs)

ESPN: Harrison and Harris to miss Wyoming opener
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OUR LONG BLOGOSPHERE NICHE NIGHTMARE IS OVER

2006-08-03T10:46:00.000-07:00

OUR LONG BLOGOSPHERE NICHE NIGHTMARE IS OVER
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Coinciding with the cresting of the annual heat wave that spreads death and anticipation across the land, Wednesday was ritualistically declared Football Advent, and the most appropriate occasion for SMQ to officially draw the curtain on his four-month expedition through the preseason jungles of absurd, reasonable and obligatory assessments.

Was the series a success? This depends on your point of view: if by "success" you mean "roughly 45 percent coverage rate whose increasingly sporadic, formulaic, outsider stabs combined with tedious metaphors were relentlessly, consistently corrected and mocked on team-specific rivals.com message boards before hacking and wheezing its way across an arbitrary finish line," then it was a smashing success!

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Aw, Arizona State, Arkansas, Army, Auburn, Ball State, Baylor, California, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado State, Duke, East Carolina, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Georgia, Houston, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Kent State, Louisiana-Monroe, Louisville, LSU, Maryland, Miami (Fla.), Miami (Ohio), Middle Tennessee State, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Texas, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, Pittsburgh, San Jose State, South Carolina, Southern Methodist, Syracuse, TCU, Temple, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Troy, Tulsa, UCF, UNLV, Utah, Utah State, UTEP, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, Washington, Washington State, West Virginia, Western Michigan, Wisconsin, and Wyoming, y'all know SMQ loves you too! Hugz! XOXOXO

SMQ has no idea, should he even survive an EDSBS tailgate, if he can handle such an undertaking again during offseason 2007, or if it's possible to singlehandedly march through 119 teams if one is not paid a living wage to do so while also bearing the surname 'Fiutak.' It will require an early start if so.

But that is many months into the future, many dramatic, football-filled, glorious months, which will be upon us officially in exactly four weeks. Four weeks!

Between now and then, SMQ intends to finalize his legit, on-the-record preseason picks - unexpected warts and all - and roll them out in semi-regular fashion over the next 20 or so days. The final few days before kickoff on August 31 will be spent sparring with Orson over the Southern Miss-Florida showdown and prepping to handle a coronary-inducing change for Sunday Morning Quarterback just as the season begins. Or something like that.

The best laid plans, etc., etc., but this is the fun part!
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BOMAR KICKED OFF TEAM, PHIL STEELE, ATHLON REQUEST DO-OVER

2006-08-02T12:53:00.000-07:00

BOMAR KICKED OFF TEAM; PHIL STEELE, ATHLON REQUEST DO-OVER
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OK, SMQ sometimes - not daily, or even that frequently, but sometimes - pulls late-night sessions poring half-consciously over primitive columnar legal pads, systematically filling in miniscule boxes with nearly unreadable, multiply-scratched out numbers with no coherence or significance whatsoever outside of his own brain, all in an effort to come up with the best possible predictions by which to be shamed throughout this upcoming season. This is tenuous and futile, every other mark brutally second-guessed as circular logic climbs further inside its own arbitrary conclusions (Nate Longshore's back, Jeff Tedford has coached a lot of pretty good quarterbacks - Cal all the way, baby!) and scenarios teetering on a house of cards, a two-hour-long Jenga game of coin flip decisions made and recorded weeks earlier.

So maybe you can understand why his first thought when he read this was concern for its virtual nullification of the numbers he's assigned Oklahoma and its opponents:

The pecking order of the Big 12 conference this season may have shifted after it was learned Tuesday that Oklahoma sophomore quarterback Rhett Bomar has been permanently kicked off the team.

An Oklahoma television station is reporting the dismissal, and two Big 12 officials confirmed it for the Chronicle. Oklahoma released a statement from head coach Bob Stoops that confirms two players have been dismissed from the team for accepting extra compensation that goes beyond work performed.

This is not a one-man, 31-point effort towards the Fulmer Cup, but it should cause some massive palpitations north of the Red River and some rejoicing to the south, where Texas can now match the Sooners' quarterback experience right around zero-zero. And submarines pretty much all of that already overwrought Oklahoma Number One stuff.

Peter, in a bit of the predictable schadenfreude, has already hailed the beginning of the Paul Thompson Era, but the second spot on the depth chart after the Spring actually belongs to JUCO signee Joey Halzle, who, according to his profile on an old rivals site for Michigan recruiting, is big (6-4, 215) and runs a 4.58.

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Meet Joey Halzle, America

But Bomar could move a little, too, and he was pegged as the top recruit in the country at any position entering school two years ago and still couldn't keep any defense his first season from deploying every possible resource to keep Adrian Peterson and Adrian Peterson's Bum Ankle at the bottom of as many piles of wallowing giants as possible - how's this JUCO kid nobody's ever heard of going to suddenly reinstitute a passing game here? Bomar was supposed to make that leap this year, and instead it's the same learning curve all over.

Which is exactly the case, as well, for SMQ's forthcoming predictions.

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MID-WEEK MINI-RAP SHEET

2006-08-02T07:16:00.000-07:00

MID-WEEK MINI-RAP SHEET, or THE MISSING LINK!
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Items of criminal and/or disciplinary nature are routinely held here for the weekend roundup, but when coaches of mega-programs on both coasts are issuing evasive statements or avoiding reporters outright on the same night days before players officially report for practice, as the otherwise odd couplish Larry Coker and Pete Carroll, respectively, were Tuesday, that is sufficiently news to SMQ.

The situation in Miami is more routine: four players, including projected starters Tyrone Moss and quasi-bust (busty?) Ryan Moore, were suspended under the omnipresent "team rules" umbrella for the big bang Labor Day opener against Florida State (in Moore's case, for Game Two against Florida A&M as well, for whatever that's worth). The Miami Herald story is rebuffed for details by Coker, but quotes a TV reporter, and then Moore's mother, as saying the suspensions stem from the same missed study sessions that caused him to miss the Peach Bowl debacle, which have been made up. Ryan's OK with that, which means his momma's OK with that, and that's good enough for SMQ.

In unrelated news, all-America safety Brandon Meriweather remains slated to start a little over a month after fruitlessly firing three times on an unidentified shooter who plugged teammate Willie Cooper in the butt, a reaction that elicited but a Bowden-esque lecture to the team. Coker puts UM's integrity first!

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Did you ever miss a study session at Miami, Michael?

The bigger news will be out West, where the L.A. Daily News sniffed around and found more than meets the eye to last week's abrupt departure from the team by the Ting Brothers, originally spun as a very respectable shift in focus towards medical school:

USC safety Brandon Ting tested positive for steroids last winter and would have been ineligible this season before deciding to quit the football team with his twin brother, Ryan, according to multiple sources.

Bad enough, by NCAA regulation and conventional sports ethics, but then the rilly big angle, the element that could make its way into the federal judicial system or, like, a SportsCenter "InFocus" segment, and already has the Trojan-haters at Bruins Nation pretty much flipping out, per usual, with glee at the ramifications:

Their father, Dr. Arthur Ting, is a prominent Bay Area physician who treated Barry Bonds for his knee injury in 2005. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, Ting was subpoenaed to appear before the grand jury in U.S. District Court in the federal investigation of Bonds.

So: in the equation Barry Bonds+Arthur Ting+x=OMG Steroid Abuse!, does x=Ting's kids?

Es possible. First, let's ask: "Multiple sources" = who? No one at all in the story is quoted as saying either of the Tings' departure was related to illegal substances, much less an expert or well-positioned "insider." No documents are provided to this effect or any other. After the first cannon blast sentence, in fact, there is no new information whatsoever in the L.A. Daily News. Less than three weeks after another, much more detailed and extremely well-sourced "bombshell" scandal story seems to have fizzled into a relative dud (at least where the gridiron-related interests are concerned), conjecture in this case is premature.

Ubiquitous, no doubt, but premature.

Click here for SMQ's wishy-washy opinion on randomly testing athletes for steroids from April.

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CROSS-PROMOTION, or SMQ HAS NO SHAME

2006-08-01T12:33:00.000-07:00

CROSS-PROMOTION, or SMQ HAS NO SHAME
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Off the presses and on the market in a matter of days, it's Here Come The Irish, a wonky contribution to the towering typhoon of Notre Dame hype set to crescendo over the coming month in anticipation of ND's inevitably underwhelming, eke-it-out victory at Georgia Tech on Sept. 2, to which SMQ his own self contributed a selection of short previews of the Domers' dozen '06 opponents. These wound up significantly less categorical than the increasingly wordy forecasts that have largely consumed the past four months on this space, and with fewer typos thanks to actual spellchecking and the editorial eye of Maple Street Press boss and ND grad James/Jim Walsh. They may also be read safely by children (though not understood).

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Gaze upon the awesome power eminating from my mere index finger, young Quinn. Absorb it. Allow yourself to be consumed by it, to become one with it, and it with you. Give yourself over to it. Feel the force. Listen to its commands. Heed its call: Destroy, my son. Destroy.

How, one may ask, did a Southern protestant whose Irish affiliations extend no further than that werid kid with a Notre Dame sharktooth cap whose house he went over to on a single harrowing occasion in 1993 wind up in a magazine spearheaded by Irish-type folks from the Midwest and major metro death sprawl areas of the Northeast who have probably grew up speaking in sharp, barking accents and at least in part gripping rosary beads? Well, they asked, mainly, and also asked Irish blogging luminaries Michael Kurinsky, Jay Barry and Pat Mitsch of The Blue-Gray Sky and Brian Stouffer from House That Rock Built, along with less-qualified contributors including a PhD in economics, the guy who introduced "on-base percentage" as an official major league statistic, actual professional and award-winning writers for actual publications you have actually read, a fourth-year medical student published in for-real scholarly journals and a guy who "works for a woman who manages some actors." And SMQ! OMG WTF!!! =-P

Anyway, SMQ's meager profit in this matter is secured, but enthusiastic readers are nevertheless encouraged to consider ordering their very own glossy, super high-quality, groundbreaking, utterly indispensible and possibly talismanic copy of Here Come The Irish today!

And donate to Orson, too, while the credit card is out. He's workin' it over there.

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HUNGRY WIVES INFILTRATE NCAA RULES COMMITTEE

2006-07-31T16:03:00.000-07:00

HUNGRY WIVES OVERTHROW, REPLACE NCAA RULES COMMITTEE
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In seasonably appropriate fashion, like a fly to the zapper, or a politician to the crucial, soon-to-be-forgotten buzz crisis of the week, the excruciating dog days compel SMQ to join the bloviation surrounding the much-discussed and reviled Rule 3-2-5-e, enacted by the NCAA Rules Committee this offseason to shorten games by allowing officials to start the clock after changes of possession when the ball is set, rather than at the snap of the possession's first play.

This is the rule:

Rule 3-2-5-e, When Clock Starts
Change: When Team B is awarded a first down, the clock will be stopped and the clock will start on the ready for play signal.

Rationale: By starting the clock, the committee estimates it will shorten the game by about five minutes, according to studies by several Division I-A conferences.

"Team B," we must conclude, is the receiving team of a punt, kickoff or turnover. A couple more less drastic changes, related to halftime length and starting the clock on "free kicks" (kickoffs), are also enacted among many other, mostly replay-related, amendments.

The ever diligent Wizard of Odds beats his drum against the rule here, here and here. Everyday Should Be Saturday laments the rationale and uses it to further urge the adoption of soccer-style, in-game ads at the expense of lengthy commercial breaks, which CBS already does, annoyingly, in addition to the more conventional ads. The L.A. Times documented the negative reaction of PAC Ten coaches at last week's media day.

Various griping about the overall length of college games - that is, from kickoff to final gun, not the actual playing time - wherein people present such arguments as "Obnoxious amounts of advertising can be tolerated, however, so long as you trim elsewhere," can be found here, here and here.

SMQ would like to say straightaway that long football games are not a problem. Such angst short of three and a half hours is entirely manufactured, and, one would guess, mostly by "fans" who like to tailgate and dress up and drink and engage in non-violent mob whooping and chanting, but ultimately don't really like football all that much. This is a problem for girlfriends and wives. What kind of "fan" is willing to invest three hours in a televised game, but not three and a half? Many folks - SMQ often among them - leave a game on TV and come back to it, and the length of a game affects this huge demographic not a whit. People attending the game, unless they simply do not care at all about the action from the outset, can hardly benefit from less action aimed at either sustaining or extending the length of mind-numbing TV timeouts.

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Look at us, oh my god, we loooove football! Go team!...Uh, are they still playing? Take our picture!

But this isn't about improving the quality of the game, is it? It's about enhancing ad time, at the expense of the central product - because "Obnoxious amounts of advertising can be tolerated...so long as you trim elsewhere." This widespread mindset shapes the game to fit the invioalable marketing, rather than work the money-making around the benefit of the game, and why not?. This is the same reason ESPN is all about "Sportstainment," rather than hardcore sports, because hardcore sports fans are already locked in. Want to grow your audience? Highlight everything around the game, so it's still interesting to people who don't care about the game. And sell them beer!

SMQ should be clear that the pageantry and emotion of college football is wonderful (and so, too, especially, is beer), and is its primary attraction over the blatantly corporate NFL. This is 3-2-5-e's greatest flaw: the number of plays will be reduced by about a dozen or so, very likely more, which will put numbers around an NFL-esque 145 or so plays per game. This has little to do with excessive outside marketing and much to do with the actual on-field product; the professional games in SMQ's view are notoriously bloated by very long play clocks (up to two-thirds of a game can tick, tick, tick away while people gesture wildly at the line of scrimmage) and non-stoppages for first downs, elements that hurt games by cutting the number of snaps to a bare bones, flow-crushing minimum. The length - as in the number of snaps college teams get off in a game - is one of the relative strengths, along with much wider variations in strategy and the aforementioned pageantry, of the "amateur" contests.

In this vain, Marty from the indispensible cfbstats.com, commenting at The Wizard of Odds gives us these national play totals for Division I-A games in 2005:

Rush: 55,967 (77.95 per game)
Pass: 47,430 (66.06)
Kickoff: 7,689 (10.71)
Punt: 7,663 (10.67)
Field Goal: 2,295 (3.2)
Total: 121,044 (168.5)

The two to really pay attention to here are kickoff and punt, as these plays are affected by the rule change in every instance. Rounding up, we have about 11 of each per game. Assuming time consumed by the early start mandated by 3-2-5-e costs about one snap per possession change, that's about 20 total plays in an average game, without factoring in changes following turnovers and missed field goals. The Wizard Odds' estimate of 20-30 lost plays per game seems more accurate than the loss of a dozen or so elsewhere. We have an hour of football available per game, maybe 25 percent of which is spent on real action. Any measure that reduces actual play time falls in the realm of 'not good.'

Those numbers don't even consider possible situational discrepancies that could directly affect the outcomes of some games, about which other detractors have fretted and SMQ has one specific, anecdotal example: when father of SMQ was a young high school assistant in the early 1980s, Mississippi high school rules dictated, as 3-2-5 and 3-2-5-e will now for colleges, that the clock start following turnovers whenever deemed ready by the official, not at the snap of the first play of the possession. So, at the end of a close game, with his team holding a slim lead and backed up on fourth down, father of SMQ (or another coach, this is not clear) decided to take a safety, and subsequently advised the team's punter to take the snap, hang around for a while, etc., and then run out of the end zone with a few seconds left. So the kid got the ball, ran around for a while and then dutifully ran out of the end zone - and was tackled around his own two-yard line. The back of the end zone! Run out of the back of the end zone! This is not precisely what they had instructed.

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Run the other way, idiot! The other way!

Anyway, the rule in question applies because: the opposing team, with an improbable chance to win, was unable to get a snap off after the change of possession because the clock ran out.

Is any incompetence remotely similar to this likely to happen in any actual collegiate game? Perhaps only if Kansas State is involved. The final scene of many tense, emotional games, though, as noted by detractors amateur and professional, far and wide, will be the same: anticlimatic scrambling, as the deserved opportunity needlessly ticks away.

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A SOMEWHAT OBLIGATORY ASSESSMENT OF: NOTRE DAME

2006-07-28T14:54:00.000-07:00

A SOMEWHAT OBLIGATORY ASSESSMENT OF: NOTRE DAME
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Wherein SMQ turns over the subjects of his final week of non-binding previews to the will of torch-toting, pitchfork-wielding mobs of popular demand and an uncensored comments section.

Today:
NOTRE DAME
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They're back! Well, maybe...no, OK, they're back! Seriously this time!

PAST FIVE SEASONS: 35-25 - 2005: 9-3, Lost Fiesta Bowl
STARTERS BACK, ROUGHLY: 17 (8 Offense, 9 Defense)
WHAT'S CHANGED: Wake up them freakin' echoes! Really: the offense not only obliterated school passing records and most other facets of the various Davie-Willingham regimes' largely futile attacks - the '05 team averaged nearly two touchdowns more then the collective 23.1 points per game managed by the 2000-04 squads - and was a genuinely scarier proposition for any opponent than its predecessors. The achievement shouldn't be dismissed, but this is about more than just playing USC, a program that had beaten ND by 31 points in three consecutive, not-at-all competitive games, within a quarter-inch of its mythical champion life: the Irish played ten of its '05 opponents (all but Syracuse and Ohio State) multiple times from 2001-04, when it outscored those ten programs, all together, by about 2 points per game; last year, its average margin against those same schools was a tad over 12, nearly three times higher than any one of the four years prior. So Charlie Weis' Irish were 3-2 against winning teams (note this does not count three-touchdown shellackings of Tennessee and Purdue), and Davie in 2000 and Willingham in 2002 matched the nine wins? Ask yourself this: would last year's team have been caught dead being decimated by 32 points in the Fiesta Bowl by Oregon State, as the 2000 team did, or being whipped 28-6 by NC State in the Gator Bowl, the fate of the '02 team? It would not. SMQ says this is a smarter team, a faster team, and a program going in a positive direction, not a fluke.
WHAT'S THE SAME: Well, the speed is still an issue. SMQ does not want to go overboard here: if one's talking mythical championship, the defensive deficiencies clearly exposed by the blistering skill guys at Ohio State and SC have to be addressed - the secondary and undersized front seven that aided the Buckeyes' record-breaking performance each return in their entirety. This is good for experience, and less good if past results are a predictor of future performance. When the Trojans got down to nut-cuttin' time, where'd they go? Deep, baby. And that's going to continue to be a problem for a team that allowed seven 300-yard passing games, four of them against teams that also topped 150 yards rushing.

THEN ONE DAY, WHEN THE HEAD COACH MET THIS PASSER, AND THEY KNEW THAT IT WAS MUCH MORE THAN A HUNCH...: Also intact, however, is the fairly prolific offense, the most important member of which is still wearing No. 10 and also cowering in fear at new brother-in-law A.J. Hawk's wedding this week. As long as Hawk isn't awarded any retroactive eligibility, last year's 36-point average will hold, and might wind up looking rather conservative.

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See you at the reception, bro

When not being flattened by future relatives, Brady Quinn was programmed by Weis for 'assassinate': BQ had a very Brady-like (Tom, that is) 65 percent completion rate, 3,900-plus yards, 32-7 TD-INT ratio, 23 school passing records. He's not the top MOCFPITC contender for nothing, and not without the legitimate weapons - Jeff Samardjsizxjaiza, Darius Walker and Rhema McKnight, back from injury - or offensive line to make this happen. The only chink in the offensive armor, if there is one, would be the running game with the hard-nosed but relatively pedestrian Walker, who found maneuverability difficult against good defenses - as well as, for some reason, Michigan State, BYU and Purdue - and will be running behind a line that atypically features zero 300-pounders. But those struggles were offset by an effective short passing and screen game that used the quicker linemen while sending 43 balls Walker's way out of the backfield, and he still managed 4.7 per carry. And there's the unreal 43 pass plays over 25 yards (and 100 over 15), which negates the notion of a short, safe, toss-and-pitch philosophy with no big play threats. Short of injury, or lighter conk on the head that breaks Weis' hypnotic spell over Quinn, there don't seem to be many avenues to shutting this bunch down.
AH, YOUTH. *^@$# YOUTH!: Not much was decided by Irish field goal kicking in '05, which means it's due to be an issue this year. And the guy apparently tabbed to resolve it is a true freshman, Ryan Burkhart. Phil Steele says "it will be interesting to see how the new K/Ps fare," which is exactly the kind of non chalant generality that typically precedes John L. Smith-style meltdowns and abusive homes among the recently unemployed special teams coach demographic. The kid reportedly hit a 53-yarder in high school, which is quite different than hitting a potential game at, say, USC. The return game, at least, should be in the very competent hands of Tom Zbikowski.
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC POST-SPRING CHATTER: Speaking of Zbikowski - if this were the World Cup, and obstinately tied games were ultimately decided by a virtually random display of related individual skill rather than, you know, playing the actual game, Irish fans would be in good shape via the professional potential in all-America safety's fists and Jeff Samardzjsiajcjxxija's arm. Zbikowski, you'll remember, floored Ohio's own Robert Bell with two knockdowns in 49 seconds in New York last month, while Samardziafjiajiza was drafted to pitch for the Chicago Cubs organization - pending their approval of his gridiron career, natch. Both guys ought to be springing for dinner, too: Zbikowski earned $25,000, and Samardziafiajxa stands to make millions as a minor leaguer - if he foregoes the NFL. In the meantime: catch that ball, white boy!

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Jeff Samardzijafjicxazaxa is very busy man

REASON FOR HOPE: Quinn and the offense are going to score, score, score, probably in a lot of ways.
REASON TO BE AFRAID, VERY AFRAID: Can the defense keep up with the best athletes it faces? Both lines are pretty significantly undersized.
IF THIS TEAM WERE ANY POP CULTURAL, HISTORICAL, LITERARY, POLITICAL OR OTHERWISE NOTABLE FIGURE, IT WOULD BE... The New York Times: Not even remotely as influential as it once was, stodgy, racked by turbulent leadership and scandal, perpetually fighing inherent setbacks (tough admissions standards, falling circulations), villified and critiqued intensely on a virtually daily basis by a huge segment of the population - yet rapidly catching up with the times and persistently restating its influence just as it appears to be sinking. Success is generally a sign of health for the industry.
HONESTLY, ~~WITHOUT LOOKING AT THE SCHEDULE~~, SMQ'S THINKING...: Big-money, roped-off affair, at least, with a very likely mythical title game appearance. Hate to bust the Irish haters' very vocal bubble, but ND in SMQ's mind has more championship elements - top-flight quarterback, serviceable running game, big-play receiving and return threats, a veteran offensive line, a functional pass rush and an all-around experienced defense - than any other team he's assessed this offseason. On paper, this is the pick. The hitch here is the schedule, which SMQ has seen in depth (disclosure: SMQ has written about Notre Dame's upcoming opponents for a soon-to-be published and probably little-read Irish preview publication) and hesitantly predicts will have at least one snare along the way. It must, probably in the first three brutal games. But it will be no surprise if there's an undefeated ND-USC thing in November that reaches even more unbearable heights of hype than anyone imagined was possible for a regular season game.

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PREVIOUS SOMEWHAT OBLIGTORY ASSESSMENTS:
July 25: Texas...July 26: Penn State

REASONABLY ANTICIPATORY ASSESSMENTS:
June 3: Boston College...June 4: Arkansas State...June 6: Hawaii...June 8: Virginia...June 10: Rice...June 11: Boise State...June 14: Tulane...June 18: Oregon...June 21: Colorado...June 24: South Florida...June 26: Fresno State...June 30: Minnesota...July 2: UAB...July 7: Virginia Tech...July 9: Michigan

ABSURDLY PREMATURE ASSESSMENTS:
April 3: Central Michigan...April 4: BYU...April 5: Kentucky...April 7: Bowling Green...April 8: Southern Cal...April 11: Rutgers...April 12: Marshall...April 13: Florida State...April 15: San Diego State...April 16: Alabama...April 19: Oregon State...April 20: Buffalo...April 21: N.C. State...April 23: Arizona...April 24: Memphis...April 25: Louisiana Tech...April 28: Iowa...April 30: Toledo...May 2: Ohio State...May 3: Mississippi State...May 5: Southern Miss...May 7: Louisiana-Lafayette...May 11: Akron...May 12: North Carolina...Michigan State...May 15: Air Force...May 17: Stanford...May 18: Georgia Tech...May 21: Connecticut...May 23: Purdue...May 24: Navy...May 27: UCLA...May 28: New Mexico State...May 29: Tennessee

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BLOG ROLLIN'

2006-07-28T14:28:00.000-07:00

BLOG ROLLIN'
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One quick entry to the sidebar today: Mark May Be Wrong, a brand-spankin' new watchblog dedicated to tracking and "holding accountable the pundits of the college football sports-entertainment industry," or, more specifically, "to document, evaluate, and publicize every prediction, statement, or off-handed remark any self-proclaimed college football expert makes in a public forum," such a tantalizing and necessary function that SMQ will disregard that it only kicked off on Wednesday and has filed but two posts. They are good posts!

SMQ wonders: is the blogosphere subject to scrutiny? He hopes so, the evidence of our inevitable ignorance being a sturdy counterweight to what figures to be the overwhelming evidence of inevitable ignorance among the "pros," against whom he apparently holds far less ill will than his online colleagues. It will be interesting to see who, if anyone, comes out looking smart in January (hint: probably the maniac who picks Cal as mythical champion. Just a word to the wise...)

SMQ himself will make every attempt to document his own prognosticative shortcomings - and successes - as the season progresses, or at least post a kind of meta-analysis of all his upcoming, doomed preseason picks at the end of the season. Unless he's ambushed by another monster hurricane, in which case, all bets are off.

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What, this guy wrong? But he played offensive line and doesn't stutter on camera...

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HEY PUNDITS, LEAVE THOSE KIDS ALONE

2006-07-27T15:47:00.000-07:00

HEY PUNDITS, LEAVE THOSE KIDS ALONE
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Two better examples there could not be to illustrate SMQ's steadfast refusal to join in the obsessive, dead end conjecture of recruiting than Wednesday's posts on Everyday Should be Saturday and MGoBlog, a pair of perennial pinnacles of pragmatism and light as far as football blogs go, regarding two overwrought prep sensations.

First, EDSBS takes an earlier commenter's bait by posting what is allegedly the gayest possible legal picture of any college football player, ever, in the form of three toned young men on a boat in, um, revealing aquatic gear, one of whom bears a striking resemblance to Alpha and Omega recruit ~~Casey~~ ~~Rick~~ Jimmy Clausen. You may know Jimmy from such gaudy spectacles as Hair Gel and Hall of Fame: The Jimmy Clausen Commitment Story and Backlash: Just When You Thought You Couldn't Hate Notre Dame Any More..., and now from a (probably) Farked-up paean to pedophilia. Not that there's anything wrong with that...

And then we are treated to a link to a lenghty review of another person we do not know, who is not yet a high school senior, playing a video game? And how its results might possibly suit this young man for a certain school's conservative offensive philosophy? (if you're into that sort of thing, SMQ will be jacking up NCAA Football online his own self to dish out some schoolin' in mere minutes...minus the critics, unfortunately).

The only virtue of either of these "stories" is the impressively astute Seinfeld radar on EDSBS commenter "Gamecock Tony," who chimed in, "You are the guys who are taking the bread out of Jimmy’s mouth. You are putting Jimmy out of commission," possibly the ideal blend of pop culture saavy and nail-on-the-head assessment of the given situation coveted in any rhetorical device, and which will therefore be shamelessly appropriated by SMQ whenever dealing with Clausen - and, oh, will we be dealing with him for a very long time - in the future.

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Jimmy's been watching you....you're just Jimmy's type.

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A SOMEWHAT OBLIGATORY ASSESSMENT OF: PENN STATE

2006-07-26T07:21:00.000-07:00

A SOMEWHAT OBLIGATORY ASSESSMENT OF: PENN STATE
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Wherein SMQ turns over the subjects of his final week of non-binding previews to the will of torch-toting, pitchfork-wielding mobs of popular demand and an uncensored comments section.

Today:
PENN STATE
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In '05, a nation turned its lonely eyes to stunning Penn State - now, on with the regularly scheduled program

PAST FIVE SEASONS: 30-27 (19-21 Big Ten) - 2005: 11-1 (7-1 Big Ten, Champs), Won Orange Bowl
STARTERS BACK, ROUGHLY: 9 (5 Offense, 4 Defense)
WHAT'S CHANGED: Initial thoughts veer from OMG NO MICHAEL ROBINSON to OMG NO OL, but we'll return to the attrition in a moment.

What's really changed around here is the suddenly terrifying OMG SPEED on offense, born of an influx of high-fallutin' freshmen that overhauled a stodgy, no-threat attack into a 21st Century ICBM overnight. Alpha recruit Derrick Williams got most of the early highlights before an injury against Michigan, and probably will again very, very soon, but it was redshirt Deon Butler - 9 TDs, 18 yards per on 37 grabs - who brought home more bacon. There's also Jordan Norwood (32 catches) and Chris Gamble-like Justin King, self-procalimed 40-yard champion, who averaged 12.6 and scored twice on 28 offensive touches before moving over and assuming his role as cornerback of death. Or, you know, making 11 tackles. But this year: death corner.
WHAT'S THE SAME: A) Half the coaching staff has been on recruiting trips to a velociraptor's den (2.13 40, **** VHT!!!), and B) the linebackers have only seemed like flesh-eating beasts out of the Gobi Desert of the late Cretaceous to Big Ten offenses the last two years. Assuming Ohio State's torch for veteran Caucasian linebacking ferocity, Paul Posluszny, Dan "Special Ed" Connor and Tim "Don't Call Me Jim" Shaw have led the iron fist responsible for holding opponents to 2.5 yards per carry last year - and that includes holding Ohio State (Smith-Pittman) to 2.3, Wisconsin (Calhoun) to -0.3 and Florida State (Washington/Booker) to 1.0. Bemoan the loss of Tamba Hali, Matt Rice and Scott Paxson if you must, and their absence is going to affect the pass rush, without a doubt, but this trio is not the type to require heavy, all-conference-caliber shielding to do its job.
AND THE ATTRITION?: It was helpful, of course, that the relative success of all the shiny new fasties at receiver was heavily subsidized by a less-lauded but more consistent, no-nonsense running game that finished second in the league. The status of that part of the show, however, is in major flux: four experienced offensive linemen are gone, and with them all-purpose terror Robinson, who turned a journeyman role into a fourth-place Heisman finish and effectively takes along one major component of the offense (the shotgun spread, read option looks installed almost entirely to take advantage of Robinson's running ability, of which more statuesque Anthony Morelli will likely see very little). Not that Tony Hunt can't and didn't have plenty of success from conventional power and one-back sets, but the availability of space in front of him is far less assured than in '05. The only real positive here, unless Morelli and the new lineman just unexpectedly rock, is that the new QB is better suited to get the receivers going on a more consistent basis than the old one.

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I know you want to toughen up the newbie and all, but practicing in a parking lot? That's extreme, Paterno. That's old school. That's why you're The Man.

TAMBA HALI'S LOST AND GONE FOREVER: It would be wrong to suggest, as SMQ nearly does above, that the D-line and secondary, seven new starters between them, are not mammoth concerns. The defensive line trio mentioned earlier and every member of the secondary - most notably underrated Alan Zemaitis, Chris Harrell and Calvin Lowry - have bid adieu, leaving a new starter who transferred from Rice and, in the secondary's case, three new starters who were recruited at other positions. For all the passes the linebackers themselves broke up last year (13 as a group), it will do them little good if there's no pass rush and/or the many blazing receivers PSU is set to face are not adequately covered. His hype and freshman experience suggest King ought to be all right, but there's nothing yet - other than the fact they play for a traditionally very competent program - to recommend the others.
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC POST-SPRING CHATTER: Morelli and Norwood completely freaked out during the Spring game, with the former completing 13 of 16 with a score and Norwood hauling in 8 for 154. Derrick Williams had 58 yards on three catches. This would be excellent if it came against PSU's starters; yet, as the Lions seemed to have gone Team Starters vs. Team Backups on both sides of the ball, fans ought instead be wondering: how'd he also throw two picks, both to new D'Brickashaw Onyenegecha Award Watch List addition Knowledge Timmons? The defense did its job and the Blue was victorious, 17-0.
REASON FOR HOPE: OMG Speed, love the linebackers.
REASON TO BE AFRAID, VERY AFRAID: Both lines are seriously depleted, which can mean disaster is nigh. Very little margin for error, as usual, in the Big Ten.
IF THIS TEAM WERE ANY POP CULTURAL, HISTORICAL, LITERARY, POLITICAL OR OTHERWISE NOTABLE FIGURE, IT WOULD BE... Frank Sinatra. The definition of the old school standard bearer who's watched the times pass him by, and everything that's cool about those glories days, but not immune from gradually fading into disrepair amidst endless farewell and comeback tours, either.

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Fighting vainly the old ennui

HONESTLY, WITHOUT LOOKING AT THE SCHEDULE, SMQ'S THINKING...: Reversion to the mean: seven wins, much-maligned December bowl. Was '05 just the last spectacular hurrah for an experienced, determined and previously underachieving group of seniors? Whither the line play? The Big Ten is a bitch that can string up the king and leave him shirtless on the side of the road, and each of PSU's last two winning years has been followed by the fairly horrendous performance that's characterized this program this decade. It hasn't achieved back-to-back winning seasons since 1998-99. That will almost certainly change, but not in an overwhelming way. Anything resembling a BCS repeat seems basically out of the question.

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PREVIOUS SOMEWHAT OBLIGTORY ASSESSMENTS:
July 25: Texas

REASONABLY ANTICIPATORY ASSESSMENTS:
June 3: Boston College...June 4: Arkansas State...June 6: Hawaii...June 8: Virginia...June 10: Rice...June 11: Boise State...June 14: Tulane...June 18: Oregon...June 21: Colorado...June 24: South Florida...June 26: Fresno State...June 30: Minnesota...July 2: UAB...July 7: Virginia Tech...July 9: Michigan

ABSURDLY PREMATURE ASSESSMENTS:
April 3: Central Michigan...April 4: BYU...April 5: Kentucky...April 7: Bowling Green...April 8: Southern Cal...April 11: Rutgers...April 12: Marshall...April 13: Florida State...April 15: San Diego State...April 16: Alabama...April 19: Oregon State...April 20: Buffalo...April 21: N.C. State...April 23: Arizona...April 24: Memphis...April 25: Louisiana Tech...April 28: Iowa...April 30: Toledo...May 2: Ohio State...May 3: Mississippi State...May 5: Southern Miss...May 7: Louisiana-Lafayette...May 11: Akron...May 12: North Carolina...Michigan State...May 15: Air Force...May 17: Stanford...May 18: Georgia Tech...May 21: Connecticut...May 23: Purdue...May 24: Navy...May 27: UCLA...May 28: New Mexico State...May 29: Tennessee

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THE HULA BOWL FOOTBALL LEAGUE

2006-07-26T00:44:00.000-07:00

THE HULA BOWL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
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Here's an idea destined to wind up on this page before the decade's out: a cadre of former college presidents (and one AD), almost entirely from SEC schools and led by former NCAA prez Cedric Dempsey, is looking to head up a new pro league for scrubs - with a twist!

...eight teams will use colleges as their bases, and feature players from those schools and their affiliated conferences and surrounding regions.

They'll play their games in the schools' stadiums or in bowl facilities. All 44-48 players per team must have graduated from college and exhausted their college eligibility.

(HT: Heisman Pundit)

The Arena Football League has succeeded - i.e., survived - by only superficially resembling a kind of curious, arcadish distortion of football-like competition, which is the approximate spirit it seems to generate. All subsequent leagues not bearing the acronym 'NFL' to attempt the recreate the genuine article have flailed and flopped and left us with only kitschy, hard-to-find t-shirts with unfathomable insignias (Canadian "football" fans, of course SMQ's not dissin' y'all: under various guises, the C"F"L pre-dates even its wildly celebrated American counterpart).

The underlying logic here, one would assume, is that if folks enjoy SEC/ACC/Big Ten football, their attachment to the players will continue to fill seats even when those players are done with the actual college part - except the players aren't really going anywhere, apparently, only being paid suddenly, changing uniforms and being relieved of academic duties (if this was ever a concern to being with). This has a whiff less of the minor leagues and more of a premature old-timers gathering at the Spring game to it: the non-NFL-worthy just suit up alongside other half-notable players from various teams in their region in between fruitless training camps? Are contests supposed to play out along the lines of an interleague, honorable mention all-conference all-star game on a rotating weekly basis?

How quickly the league hits the skids depends on the depth of the pockets of the shadowy "single businessman" funding this thing, but SMQ predicts the death will be a slow, anonymous, not least because it will have to generate millions from fans who care infinitely more about schools than individual players, and regardless of location will have no ties to bind them to any of these dubious organizations. Remember: most college football programs finish in the red without paying $100,000 player salaries or sharing revenue, as the AAFC plans to with host schools. Or do Bostonians, for example, have nothing better to do than drive down to watch Quinton Porter at last team up with Amos Zereoue?

Besides, if fans are interested in the various fates of past heroes from ol' Alma Mater U., they can always check out the long list of notable Americans now plying their trade in the aformentioned league north of the border. And if you can't make it there, or among the half-field variety, then maybe you should consider another career option.

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A SOMEWHAT OBLIGATORY ASSESSMENT OF: TEXAS

2006-07-25T00:53:00.000-07:00

A SOMEWHAT OBLIGATORY ASSESSMENT OF: TEXAS
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By popular demand - 31 blank spaces and the dubious voracity of the identity of signee "Denver Lamberth" not withstanding - SMQ begins his final week of fire sale, non-binding predictions with the mythical champs

Today:
TEXAS
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Three white whales - a rival, a conference, a national crown - felled in one swoop, but whence the state of Mack's new kingdom sans Sir Score-a-lot?

PAST FIVE SEASONS: 56-8 (36-6 Big XII) - 2005: 13-0 (9-0 Big XII, Champs), Won Rose Bowl, Mythical National Champs
STARTERS BACK, ROUGHLY: 13 (6 Offense, 7 Defense)
WHAT'S CHANGED: On the bright side, Mack Brown Inc. stunned doubting Thomasi (like SMQ), finally achieving nirvana by riding its loping, rocket-armed chakra past its main blockage in the South Division and on to enlightenment in the Rose Bowl. Loosening Oklahoma's psychlogical death-grip on the the teams' series - and, subsequently the conference - should not be underestimated.

Of course, even few Sahasrara are otherwordly enough to have these actual, very earnest words written about them:

For Vince, it had always been about "team," and as the Rose Bowl approached and passed, it became obvious that the world would no longer allow him to fit in that role. With his magnificent performance in the National Championship game, Young became larger than life, and as much as he tried to deflect credit and give it to his teammates, the media and the fans would never allow that.

And so, just as the mythical character in Kahlil Gibran's poem "The Prophet," Vince Young sailed off in the sunset on Sunday. Behind, he left an amazing legacy, a rare and unique person whose qualities were many, whose significant shadow will be cast on Texas football forever.

Yet lest fans despair in the wake of the adulatory funeral pyre of their gridiron yogi's amateur career, they are comforted, for "Young's final, selfless act for the Texas Longhorns was to talk to his would be successor about leadership." In this case, the reference is to iconicly-named and thickly-eyebrowed redshirt freshman Colt McCoy, though "Wait, he's white?" all-star Jevan Snead was an early enrollee and competed during the Spring. To date, neither has anything to recommend him but the ungodly prep stats one would expect of a potential freshman starter at one of the nation's primo blue chip magnets. Also, neither is quite as highly regarded as Chris Simms was out of high school. So ve know nottink.

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McCoy: More or less acquainted with Vince Young

WHAT'S THE SAME: "Ungodly" is also a nice way to describe Jamaal Charles' 7.4 yards per carry and 11 touchdowns (on just 119 carries) as a true freshman, and the Longhorns' returning skill talent in general: Charles, Selvin Young, Billy Pittman, Limas Sweed, Quan Cosby and SMQ fave "Heavy" Henry Melton collectively topped 4,000 total yards from scrimmage in '05 (a little over 308 per game, or about 10 yards per touch) and could all play and start for just about anybody in the country. Those numbers do not include all-purpose virtuoso and epic hash hound/armed peanut farm brawler/banished MySpacer Ramonce Taylor, who had more than 800 total yards and a stunning 15 touchdowns on 103 offensive touches but may or may not return for the fall. Whether losing a quarterback whose talents commanded ad libs and many carries of his own, as well as defenses' undivided attention, hurts or helps those numbers is probably a toss-up, but whether opposing coordinators will grow pale and jelly-legged watching these guys on film is not.
HEROES AND VILLAINS: While Taylor was busy getting his multiple felonies on, McCoy was living up to his moniker's big-hearted maverick potential by intrepidly helping to rescue a neighbor suffering from a seizure on Memorial Day (an act accompanied by a story, coincidentally, that stops dead in the middle of Colt's harrowing climb up a bank of rocks to get to the man to point out that a few other neighbors were - gasp - Texas A&M fans! "I'm an Aggie, but I'm darn proud of that kid," one reluctantly reports).

McCoy - whose Wikipedia page is already as long, before he's taken a snap, as 'Horn legend and NFL Hall-of-Famer Bobby Layne's entry - will soon find that off-field virtues earn little acclaim if one looks more like Chris Rix under the lights, and his inexperience (or that of Snead or fellow true freshman Sherrod Harris) will be the main impediment to this absurdly talented team's chances of repeating. The only two teams in SMQ's lifetime to win a mythical title with a non-junior or senior QB were Alabama in 1992 and USC in 2003, and both of those very different quarterbacks were redshirt sophomores, not freshmen. It's not a particularly original question, but it must be asked: even at home, how much confidence can be placed in any of these kids when they line up against Ohio State in September? Against Oklahoma's rabid D a month later? That's a steep learning curve, one no freshman or redshirt freshman quarterback in SMQ's memory - probably Michael Vick included, given his opponents as a redshirt - has ever aced out of the gate.
THE DIRTY WORK: The goal, of course, will be to take everything out of whichever kid's hands are being employed at any given point, and the backfield talent are offensive line are geared to pick up that sort of slack. Mack Brown commissioned a study two years ago to determine exactly what ingredients made a champion over the past decade or so, and determined that line play was the most consistent factor present in every title winner. Hence, the 'Horns put together probably the best combination of offensive and defensive line play in the country last year, and might be in a position to pull that off again. Departed Jonathan Scott and Will Allen were the most decorated of '05's veteran line crop, but all-leaguer Justin Blalock is back at one tackle with honorable mention pick Kasey Studdard and center Lyle Sendlein. No Rodrique Wright is no big whoop on defense, where there's ridiculous depth at end and size in the middle in the form of Frank Okam. It was a group that wore down towards the end of last year, though - it allowed opponents more than 5 yards per carry in four games, all in the last six - lost three of its four leading tacklers and might have a hiccup or two in the good-looking but Michael Huff/Cedric Griffin-less secondary.
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC POST-SPRING CHATTER: Oh, that Colt, saving the neighbors, fending off the preppies and receiving high praise from Austin's former quarterbacking Zeus:

"I see a smart quarterback, and a lot of hard work, a lot of hard work," Young said. "I've seen a great arm, as well. He's already gained the respect of the guys, and like I told him all year, that's the biggest key."

Added Young, "He's been answering a lot of questions in meetings that when I was a freshman, I couldn't even answer. I'm just proud of him as a freshman and I look forward to seeing him play."

Of course, Vince Young's been known to struggle with the answers of a lot of questions. Oh! Thank you.
REASON FOR HOPE: Obviously. This team is still absurdly talented everywhere you look.
REASON TO BE AFRAID, VERY AFRAID: Obviously. Vince Young could have carried this group like it was a two-year-old on his shoulders, but it's going to seem more like a, well, herd of longhorn steers to McCoy if he's forced to assume anything remotely resembling the same burden. Even as a "within the offense" type for now, will the passing game be good enough to keep more competent opponents from ganging up on the stud backs?
IF THIS TEAM WERE ANY POP CULTURAL, HISTORICAL, LITERARY, POLITICAL OR OTHERWISE NOTABLE FIGURE, IT WOULD BE... Spider-Man 3, the much-awaited, spare-no-expense follow-up to other big-budget, star-studded, massively successful mythical champions - one on the box office, one on the field - and hoping the dollars and mostly returning talent, under the same direction, can live up to the franchise's recent past success.

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Ramonce Taylor's second-favorite Mary Jane

HONESTLY, WITHOUT LOOKING AT THE SCHEDULE, SMQ'S THINKING...: Two losses max, BCS game as Big XII champ or at-large. The quarterbacking youth would seem to preclude a successful mythical title defense, but it's going to be tough to pick against a collection of athleticism and experience across the board like this in any game. Beat Ohio State, and SMQ will believe.

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PREVIOUS REASONABLY ANTICIPATORY ASSESSMENTS:
June 3: Boston College...June 4: Arkansas State...June 6: Hawaii...June 8: Virginia...June 10: Rice...June 11: Boise State...June 14: Tulane...June 18: Oregon...June 21: Colorado...June 24: South Florida...June 26: Fresno State...June 30: Minnesota...July 2: UAB...July 7: Virginia Tech...July 9: Michigan

ABSURDLY PREMATURE ASSESSMENTS:
April 3: Central Michigan...April 4: BYU...April 5: Kentucky...April 7: Bowling Green...April 8: Southern Cal...April 11: Rutgers...April 12: Marshall...April 13: Florida State...April 15: San Diego State...April 16: Alabama...April 19: Oregon State...April 20: Buffalo...April 21: N.C. State...April 23: Arizona...April 24: Memphis...April 25: Louisiana Tech...April 28: Iowa...April 30: Toledo...May 2: Ohio State...May 3: Mississippi State...May 5: Southern Miss...May 7: Louisiana-Lafayette...May 11: Akron...May 12: North Carolina...Michigan State...May 15: Air Force...May 17: Stanford...May 18: Georgia Tech...May 21: Connecticut...May 23: Purdue...May 24: Navy...May 27: UCLA...May 28: New Mexico State...May 29: Tennessee

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HAS SMQ LOST HIS MIND? EVERY TEAM MUST GO!!!

2006-07-24T06:37:00.000-07:00

HAS SMQ LOST HIS MIND? EVERY TEAM MUST GO!!!
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As official-type previews begin in earnest in, like, a week, SMQ is auctioning off the last five days of non-binding previews to the highest bidders (that is, the team not already prematurely or anticipatorily forecasted with the most requests for a preview in comments or in e-mails, though federal laws do not in any way prohibit the offer of substantial bribes from enthusiastic readers).

The fire sale will commence tomorrow and run through Saturday. If no requests come in on a given day, SMQ will preview whomever he likes. Let the bidding begin...

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SMQ's gotFloridadoIhearfiveforFlorida jeanshortjokesandpotshotsatChrisLeak, doeshehearfive? Five?...

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NOWHERE TO GO BUT DOWN

2006-07-20T16:00:00.000-07:00

NOWHERE TO GO BUT DOWN
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SMQ's temporary EDSBS colleague Senor Westerdawg, drawing from ratings of which SMQ has no knowledge, has identified "The Most Underrated Revenge Game of 2006" from among a pack of likely contenders, including Oklahoma-Texas, Florida State-Florida, Michigan-Ohio State and Notre Dame-Michigan State. Out-vengeancing all of those annual hate-fests in Paul's estimation, however, is the typically tamer Auburn at South Carolina throwdown on Sept. 28 - not because, as one might suspect, impatient, grudge-holding SMQ fave Steve Spurrier will have his charges geared to atone for 2005's horrific 48-7 loss on the Plains, in which the 'Cock-N-Fire offense failed to enter Auburn territory before well into the fourth quarter. Rather, Westerdawg forecasts revenge will be sweetest for the Tigers' eerily-well rounded, all-SEC back du jour, USC transfer Kenny Irons, who had not yet emerged as one of the most unstoppable weapons in the league when he faced his former team in '05 but will not spoil this final chance to cement said status by galloping for hundreds upon hundreds of yards against his old mates (and against Carolina Defensive Coordinator Tyrone Nix, former Southern Miss linebacker and coach and very large human for whom SMQ has too much, um, respect to second Paul's prediction).

SMQ will make another prediction, though, itself related to a "Revenge Game of the [Insert Appropriate Amount of Time Depending on Your Well-Reasoned Perspective]": Louisville, triple OT losers in Morgantown last year, will beat West Virginia and win the Big East's automatic Mo' Money bid.

This would not seem to be very out on the limb at all, as the Cardinals were monster favorites in the league in '05 - after displaying monster juggernaut status in C-USA in '04 - and mostly played like it, save an early, completely inexplicable wipeout versus South Florida and the very end of the game against West Virginia, when U of Hell blew a 24-7 fourth quarter lead - with a little help, it should be noted, from later-reprimanded Big East officials on a critical onside kick. Louisville also returns the Big East's leading passer, leading rusher (and two more who combined to top 1,100 yards), leading receiver (and another in the top five) and seven starters on defense. The Cards also led the Big East in scoring (29 points more than WVU in league games, 136 more in all games, with seven straight games over 40, two games over 60 against BCS conference opponents and 30 and 24, respectively, in two games against top 10 national defenses without its starting quarterback) and outgained conference opponents by almost 175 yards per game; they outgained the Mountaineers by 60 yards head-to-head, the difference in that game turning on a +1 turnover advantage and a failed two-point conversion to tie on the final play of the third overtime.

I.E., Louisville is about to totally blow up. Again. And West Virginia is standing a little too close.

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Don't you know who I am? I'm the juggernaut, bitch!

Not that West Virginia didn't deserve to win - but look what that victory, along with the stunning Sugar Bowl upset of Georgia, has wrought when projecting the upcoming season: the 'Neers got early smooches from Sports Illustrated's Stewart Mandel, then full-on, under-the-skirt petting from ESPN's Pat Forde, who proclaimed WVU No. 1 in May. Preseason magazines came out shortly after, all ranking West Virginia in the top ten, from 3 (Lindy's) to 5 (The Sporting News) to 6 (Athlon, which also rated it the No. 1 "Program on the Rise") and this week topping the Big East media's preseason polls.

So does anyone else get the feeling this team's going down to Maryland in a Sept. 14 Thursday night game, with at least two more humiliating defeats to follow? It's easy to forget, with the way it started flattening folks later in the season, how much of a defensive team West Virginia was, and half that unit - and just about all of its principles - are gone. It's also easy to forget how one-dimensional the team was, and SMQ will believe this team is some '95 Nebraska, run-for-280-at-will steamroller when he sees it; it is sophomore slump time for Pat White all the way. He won't go as far as (apparently) the only other 'Neer skeptic this summer, Phil Steele, who picks WVU third behind Pittsburgh (though his top, uh, 47 has West Virginia No. 17, slightly below SMQ's projection, and Pitt way down at 39), but he's already elucidated the historical warning signs, all of which point to "bust":

Mediocre program with little to no recent championship success + Low to moderate expectations in Year X + Quietly unexpected success (one-two losses) in Year X + Shocking postseason upset + Returning starting quarterback= Inflated expectations, inevitable disappointment in Year Y

That formula was fleshed out with "Recent Bust Corollaries," examples of similar recent hype cum ineptitude from Arizona, Texas A&M, Oregon State and, just last year, Purdue. It happens on smaller scales, too - like, what was Iowa State doing at the top of the preseason polls in the Big XII North last year?

It's not that West Virginia is going to be bad - it's not impossible, but very unlikely it will miss a bowl game, and probably will play in a decent one. But over the long haul, the major arc, what's the high point of this program? Is it capable of topping '05? Can it do better than an 11-1, conference-title-winning, Sugar Bowl-upsetting season? SMQ sees no reason yet anyone outside of the state of West Virginia should believe it can.

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STATISTICS DATABASIN'

2006-07-19T16:00:00.000-07:00

STATISTICAL DATABASIN'
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If you're still trying to while away those offseason blues with something other than Gilmore Girls marathons on one of the quasi-networks or its wholesome cable spin-off, Marty Couvillon's obsessive diligence is your gain at cfbstats.com, where he's just added every play from the 2005 season to the database.

What this means is that a curious fan may now call up his team - say, Southern Miss - and check out its cumulative offensive or defensive performance in pretty much any situation. He had this already for down and distance, but he's also now added scoring situations - i.e., what was said team's rushing performance when trailing by 1-7 points? In USM's case, it was horrible: the Eagles averaged -2.73 yards per carry on 41 attempts when trailing by one score and completed but 41.7 percent of passes (overall completion percentage in all situations: 54.8). Can you come back like that? No - and USM didn't come from behind to win a single game in '05.

This can also be used to lend some insight to Michigan fans' bemoaning the conservatism of the Wolverines' late defensive strategies in a series of comeback losses...sort of: It did give up more fourth quarter touchdowns than in any other quarter, but UM's defense was actually much better against the pass, above average against the run and only allowed one touchdown all season when leading by 1-7 points.

This is not necessarily relevant, but the more numbers in the fewer places in the least time, the better. Someone like Brian can do some bitchin' charts with this kind of material, and typically those are relevant.

The next step will be to make all of this sortable - what was USM's performance on rushing plays in the second quarter on third and 4-6 to go when leading by 1-7? No pressure or anything, Marty.

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MAJOR PAINS

2006-07-18T16:30:00.000-07:00

MAJOR PAIN
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The Birmingham News eats The Huntsville Times' dust this morning on the about-face of Auburn prof James Gundlach, chief whistleblower in The New York Times' initial indictment of the program's practice of steering athletes towards easy courses, who now says he will not participate in the investigation - though he was met with "heartwarming" applause by 10 or 12 faculty members in the parking lot Monday.

A quick follow-up to Monday's point about other colleges steering athletes in clusters towards one or two majors. SMQ looked up a few old media guides and programs (which restricted themselves to senior bios only) last night and found that, in 2003, Southern Miss players were overwhelmingly majoring in coaching and sport administration or criminal justice by huge margins; UAB players were only slightly less likely to be in history (one of SMQ's two majors) or criminal justice, Memphis players to take "interdisciplinary studies" or Nebraska players business administration - though, to be fair, the Huskers have a ton of players and a pretty wide range of disciplines represented on the team.

A couple quick looks at random schools' online media guides this morning shows USC has a lot of sociology majors, including Dwayne Jarrett, on its roster; Florida State has an unusual number of players studying "social science"; and in 2005, Louisville players could be largely grouped into marketing or sports administration (or, even more often, "undecided," an option certainly not restricted to jocks).

He also quickly looked at other schools, including LSU, Tennessee, Ohio State and Texas, but the information on player majors in those guides was either too time-consuming to compile (as in Texas' case, because UT, like Ohio State, hasn't released its probably record-breaking '06 media guide, at least online) or not apparently available in the bios of many players (LSU and Tennessee presume, correctly in most cases, that the media cares not about this superfluous element of athletic life). The only two guides he glanced at that seemed to show a legitimate smattering of studies in a range of fields were those of Florida and Georgia - though UGA suspiciously offers the broadest possible major, presumably to all students, termed "Arts and Sciences," a colossally comprehensive combination that seems fairly impossible to adequately cover in a few years. Why not just let folks major in "Studies"?

Anyway: not scientific, small sample size, no evidence any of those courses were or are inherently easy, etc. etc., but the prevalence of this not-at-all new or secret trend is threatened only if the NCAA finds Auburn was wrong to steer athletes toward certain classes, which it seems a large number of major athletic schools have done for decades. Otherwise, it will have to be determined that these particular sociology classes were dunce-worthy on a fraudulent level, and probably also that the AU athletic department or the university itself (possessed by its evil, evil boosters) knew it. That won't be easy to do.

This post also appears at Everyday Should Be Saturday
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BLOG ROLLIN'

2006-07-18T07:37:00.000-07:00

BLOG ROLLIN'
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A couple additions to the sidebar going up later today:

First, there's the approprately-named Badger Tracker's newish effort Badger Sports, the premiere (that is, first, not paramount) Wisconsin-themed blog on SMQ's sidebar. SMQ judges BT as largely cynical and indifferent in correct proportions to his enthusiasm for a school in one of those very, very cold states often referenced by Garrison Keillor.

Also joining on are The Sporting Gnomes, who spend much time "roaming the wide world of Clemson sports." Thus far, Clem and Broken have roamed largely Atlhon's ACC projections for the fall rather than the wider world of, say, Lady Tiger tennis. But they have plenty of time.

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AUBURN PROF: NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND!

2006-07-17T11:41:00.000-07:00

AUBURN PROF: NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND!
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Mere days after blowing up his university's athletic department, sociology department and general academic integrity in the pages of the most widely read and influential newspaper in the country, Auburn professor James Gundlach told a university investigative committee and The Huntsville Times Sunday the whistleblowin' scene is, like, dead, man:

"The committee has been in touch with me asking to meet with them tomorrow," Gundlach said Sunday in an interview with The Huntsville Times. "I e-mailed them and said my cooperation with them is over."

Gundlach said he made his decision after reading a report in Friday's Huntsville Times that administration officials said he was motivated, at least in part, to make his allegations in a story released Thursday by The New York Times because he was passed over when Petee, a criminology professor, was promoted in 2002.

Gundlach said Sunday he never wanted the job and never told university officials he did.

"The only university officials I've talked to about this since the (New York) Times reporter first appeared on campus are two members of the committee that is supposed to investigate," Gundlach said. "I remember, at one time in that meeting, one of the two people asked me if I had supported Petee when he ran for chair. I said no, and we moved on.

"What seems to me is that somehow information from that got passed on somehow or someway to people that certainly shouldn't have been talking to you about what I said at that meeting. They are saying no talking until it is quiet, but apparently somebody on that committee and other people at the university saw fit to use that to, in effect, discredit me.

"It's a total falsehood. The only contested office I ran for was director of sociology, and I won that. There are no sour grapes here. It was a total fabrication."

Though the controversy has swirled around football players who took so-called "direct reading" or "directed study" courses under Petee, Gundlach said his main motivation was that Petee is "unfit as a department administrator."

"I have never said this was something that was done specifically for athletes," Gundlach said. "My concern was that the athletes were something that was going to call attention to it and lead to embarrassing situations. If the athletes weren't there, nobody would care.

"Since I've been thinking about the athletic rules and other such things, it is clear that everything Petee did for athletes was also available for other students. In terms of the letter of NCAA regulations, there are probably no problems."

(emphasis SMQ's)

Gundlach's retiring soon, and, man, is he burning bridges with everybody. Good thing he thought about "the athletic rules and other such things" before he took it someplace like The New York Times. Wait, what? Oh.

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I said what? To who? Eh, changed my mind.

This news es goot, veddy goot for the university and athletic department, as their accusor is essentially admitting he succumbed to professional and personal motivations of the petty academic ego. Anyone who's been embroiled in even minor campus controversy, as SMQ has, should familiar with this sort of response from professors; he was pissed at his boss.

Initially, that anger seemed justifiable and born of integrity. Maybe it still is. Except now, he's backtracking, ex-players are falling over each other to deny his charges and major schools everywhere hold their breath hoping this case becomes one of personal animosity and blows on over (check your media guides and programs for player majors, fans - odds are they're clustered in one or two fields. At Southern Miss, it was Coaching and Athletic Administration, where a disproportionate number of athletes actually makes sense, and Criminal Justice). This one's already going overboard on ambiguity and conjecture, and getting stickier fast.

This post also appears at Every Day Should Be Saturday
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DOUBLE DUTY

2006-07-17T10:30:00.000-07:00

DOUBLE DUTY
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SMQ's filling in this week at the virtual Jean Short Capital of the U.S.A., Every Day Should Be Saturday, while the esteemed Mssr. Swindle vacations in various states of borat-induced bliss. Stranko Montana remains on board, along with SMQ's temporary mates Peter Bean and Paul Westerdawg in Orson's stead.

SMQ is back online after a short blog vacation of his own, of course, which means serious workload but should work out just fine, providing he can adjust to the subtletites of the Word Press format at EDSBS headquarters, which he suspects might actually turn out to be a good bit friendlier than the HTML-mad queries required by Blogger. Much hand-wringing on that front and - appropriately - harumphing this morning, but quantity and quality early on is out the roof over there.

Anyway: is SMQ wasting tremendous creative strain to enhance the quality of someone else's space? Is he freely handing out valuable intellectual property in writing that will remain in the archives of another? Well, "waste" is a relative term, but generally, yes. Interesting week ahead.

Here is SMQ does EDSBS post numero uno:THE GRAMMYS OF SPORT, OR, GUYS UPON WHOM TO KEEP YOUR EYES

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MOMENTARY BURNOUT

2006-07-12T19:32:00.000-07:00

MOMENTARY BURNOUT
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As he's already blown a couple days this week before his next reasonably anticipatory preview of a certain prominent Big XII program, SMQ will be taking the rest of the week off to continue to put in time for his more official forecast coming in August. Though not as intricate and exhaustive as he'd prefer, they're still more time consuming to generate than your average win-loss-toss up Athlon Top 25.

And before Orson gets there, SMQ would just like to note that Sept. 15 is shaping up as one of the greatest college football Saturdays to look forward to in recent memory: not only are there SEC division-deciders Florida-Tennessee and Auburn-LSU - which has replaced UF-UT as the league's premiere must-win intra-division rivalry - but also Notre Dame-Michigan, Miami-Louisville, Oklahoma-Oregon, Nebraska-USC (SMQ promises this will be closer than you think) and nice regional battles like Florida State-Clemson, Texas Tech-TCU and Iowa-Iowa State. It also includes Southern Miss' best home draw, NC State. Tre-mendous slate for a single weekend.

See y'all next Tuesday.

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A REASONABLY ANTICIPATORY ASSESSMENT OF: MICHIGAN

2006-07-09T18:10:00.000-07:00

A REASONABLY ANTICIPATORY ASSESSMENT OF: MICHIGAN
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SMQ spins the wheel for a hastily-rendered but not too-soon look at a random school's prospects for the fall, sans inevitable academic and criminal suspensions, sudden transfers, debilitating injuries and other miscellaneous misfortunes of the long summer

Today:
MICHIGAN
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When is 7-5 not 7-5? When it's the best 7-5 team in history!

PAST FIVE SEASONS: 44-18 (31-9 Big Ten) - 2005: 7-5 (5-3 Big Ten), Lost Alamo Bowl
STARTERS BACK, ROUGHLY: 16 (8 Offense, 8 Defense)
WHAT'S CHANGED: "Much-maligned" Defensive Coordinator Jim Hermann's hop to the NFL led to joy and hymns of praise across the state, as it also means, fans hope, his conservative tendencies go with it. Michigan gave up late, go-ahead scores in six games last year (including back-to-back wins over Penn State and Iowa, in the latter case a tying score), which was blamed largely on Hermann and Carr's wont to tone things down and back corners off to an excessive degree with a lead. Ron English is in with a mandate from Carr to "be more aggressive and get after the quarterback."
WHAT'S THE SAME: Chad Henne has 24 remarkably consistent starts under his belt now, which means 'ooh, big shiny young guy' hype has long been worn down by the complacency and criticism of familiarity. Michigan fans know now what Henne can do (throw hard) and what he can't (run; throw accurately short-to-medium balls with a high rate of predictability), and if he's not Matt Leinart, or even Brady Quinn, he is at least slightly ahead of John Navarre's pace - 5,800 yards and 48 touchdowns in two years, with a 59 percent completion rate and an improving TD-INT ratio (23-8 in '05, compared to 25-12 as a freshman), should invalidate, or quiet, much of his "Hennebriated" reputation. Though it probably won't.
GO LONG, YOUNG MAN: The success of the passing attack relative to the run was partly due to the changing abilities, strategies and patterns of the modern game, but mostly to injuries to backs and linemen and talent on hand at quarterback and receiver. Where Henne's go-to guy in '04 was leaping, big-play freak extraordinaire Braylon Edwards, a top-three overall pick for whom SMQ would have cast a no-regrets Heisman vote, in '05 it was steady Jason Avant, who required studious, vigilant, chart-based fans like Brian to advocate the subtle wonders of his game. The result: Michigan had 15 pass plays over 25 yards for the season last year (for some comparison, Edwards alone caught at least nine balls over 25 yards three straight years; Michigan opponents completed 21 passes over 25 yards; Michigan State and Ohio State each doubled UM with 31 and 30, respectively; Iowa had 27, Northwestern 25, and Notre Dame a ridiculous 43 pass plays over 25 yards), despite the presence of blistering Steve Breaston, The Sporting News' top-ranked receiver in the nation before last season, and righteous freshman Mario Manningham. Breaston is nowhere to be found on TSN's preseason "Top Receivers" list this summer after averaging 11.19 on 26 catches (he averaged less than 8.6 yards on 34 catches in '04, so if that looked like all-America potential, what's with the snub this year?), but he and Manningham do offer more likely downfield targets for Henne's mini-bazooka than Avant; Manningham, especially, who is built more like Edwards, caught six touchdowns and averaged more than 16 yards per catch in five of the nine games he caught at least two balls (and was pegged as TSN's ninth-best receiver entering '06, for the record).

The X-factor along these lines is Mike Hart's ankle and the line's competence, which combined to keep the little fireplug on the bench, Henne's head on a swivel and safeties firmly in pass coverage as a result. Hart is not a burner ~~(career long: 34 yards)~~, but the persistent attention defenses must pay his abilities will not only open up the downfield and play-action options, but also the screens UM runs often and very well, which could get Breaston - who ain't winning too many jump balls in traffic - into the secondary more often, too.
GET BACK TO WHERE YOU ONCE BELONGED: Opponents ever so slightly upped their yards per game, yards per carry and rushing touchdowns against Michigan for the third straight season, and, with the exception of Notre Dame - which still produced a 100-yard game on a ton of carries - pretty much every decent rushing attack gave this bunch hell last season (dominating Eastern Michigan and Indiana drove the stats way down, but UM gave up a very middling 155 ypg, 4.2 ypc against winning teams, which doesn't include 173 on 4.7 by Michigan State). That trend ought to reverse at least somewhat with monstrous Alan Branch clogging up lanes, tearing into backfields and eating running backs for his mid-game meal en route to staking his claim as the next great Michigan lineman alongside LaMarr Woodley, easily last season's most productive defender in sacks and tackles for loss despite missing all or parts of about five games. A pair of new but very large defensive tackles shouldn't stop Dave Harris and Prescott Burgess from more closely resembling the usual group of NFL-bound destroyers at linebacker; Shawn Crable starts the season on the bench but shouldn't end it there.
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC POST-SPRING CHATTER: In addition to completely freaking and issuing double-digit win ultimatums to LLLLLoyd Carr after an unspeakable - oh the horror! - 7-5 season, UM fans are holding their breath over Hart's ankle and hamstring. A couple other running backs turned some heads - including a somewhat trimmed down Kevin "Gravy" Grady and Carlos Brown, who also took injured Antonio Bass' occasional spot as "utterly predictable running quarterback" - in the Spring game, but it was No. 20's reassurance that made headlines:

"A week and a half after we started winter conditioning, I was like, 'I'm back to normal, I'm ready to go," Hart said Saturday, following U-M's final spring practice. "I was cutting off it fine and didn't have any pain at all. It was just rest."

Awwwww, that shit is on now.
REASON FOR HOPE: Healthy Hart. Talent level is still tops in the Big Ten along with Ohio State; the defensive ends can wreak havoc and receivers can stretch the field. Henne, Hart and Breaston, among others, count now as veterans.
REASON TO BE AFRAID, VERY AFRAID: Defense continued sliding towards the middle of the pack. What if Hart goes down again, and/or the O-line continues to be shuffled week-to-week? Henne occasionally goes cold, which consistently meant an 'L' in '05 (0-4 when he completed under 50 percent last year, which he did only once, in a win over San Diego State, as a freshman).
IF THIS TEAM WERE ANY POP CULTURAL, HISTORICAL, LITERARY, POLITICAL OR OTHERWISE NOTABLE FIGURE, IT WOULD BE... General Henry Seymour Rawlinson, 1st Baron Rawlinson of Trent: Rawlinson's innovative "bite and hold" tactic called for the British Second Army gain valuable ground during World War I and hang on to it for dear life rather than follow up a victory by attempting a risky effort at "breakthrough," just as Lloyd Carr has typically called for his team to "bite and hold" leads at the expense of a potentially bigger, more dashing victory.

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I say, my good man: was that a 3-deep 5-under zone? Smashing show!

HONESTLY, WITHOUT LOOKING AT THE SCHEDULE, SMQ'S THINKING... Ten wins, back on New Year's Day. Potential for Big Ten championship. Certainly this is possible - this team looks exactly like every Michigan team. All of its losses last season were close, tight games against good teams, without its clock-killing running back and a slew of other injuries. It takes very little improvement from there to get back to a top ten-level team, and this group ought to be plenty improved.

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PREVIOUS REASONABLY ANTICIPATORY ASSESSMENTS:
June 3: Boston College...June 4: Arkansas State...June 6: Hawaii...June 8: Virginia...June 10: Rice...June 11: Boise State...June 14: Tulane...June 18: Oregon...June 21: Colorado...June 24: South Florida...June 26: Fresno State...June 30: Minnesota...July 2: UAB...July 7: Virginia Tech

ABSURDLY PREMATURE ASSESSMENTS:
April 3: Central Michigan...April 4: BYU...April 5: Kentucky...April 7: Bowling Green...April 8: Southern Cal...April 11: Rutgers...April 12: Marshall...April 13: Florida State...April 15: San Diego State...April 16: Alabama...April 19: Oregon State...April 20: Buffalo...April 21: N.C. State...April 23: Arizona...April 24: Memphis...April 25: Louisiana Tech...April 28: Iowa...April 30: Toledo...May 2: Ohio State...May 3: Mississippi State...May 5: Southern Miss...May 7: Louisiana-Lafayette...May 11: Akron...May 12: North Carolina...Michigan State...May 15: Air Force...May 17: Stanford...May 18: Georgia Tech...May 21: Connecticut...May 23: Purdue...May 24: Navy...May 27: UCLA...May 28: New Mexico State...May 29: Tennessee

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THE RAP SHEET

2006-07-08T08:12:00.000-07:00

THE RAP SHEET
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The week in eligibility-crippling issues - legal, academic, institutional and otherwise...

Opening this week in South Bend, where "a Florida man," Andrew French, pled guilty to "interfering with Tyrone Willingham's ability to enjoy his employment because of threats of harm related to his race or color" for leaving a drunken "4 a.m. rant that lasted a couple of minutes" on Willingham's office phone in November 2003, one that included racial epithets and a threat - really - to burn a cross in the coach's yard. The guilty plea saved a him a felony charge.

Accounts don't specify, but presumably this followed Notre Dame's 37-0 home loss to Florida State, the Irish's sixth in seven games but its only defeat in November 2003 (Navy, BYU and Stanford in subsequent weeks were three of ND's five wins that season). French, 26 now so probably about 23 at the time, cited "peer pressure" along with alcohol as a reason for this incredibly stupid call, from which can surmise that it was the result of endless ribbing from his FSU fan frat buddies - possibly following a week or two of bragging of an eminent Irish upset? A wager or two? That is only conjecture.

What we do know: French, like everyone else, could use one of these.

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Cell phone rule number one, Andy French: friends don't let friends don't drink and dial.

BANNED, by the NCAA, academic transcripts from 16 more "schools" labeled "diploma mills." This on the heels of nine other institutions already called out in the wake of a New York Times story on University High School last November.

All of the newly blackballed schools are from California or the East Coast; this is also the case of 22 schools and academies cleared pending future review, save two in Texas, one down the road from SMQ in Mississippi ("Genesis One" is no powerhouse in the state in any sport, as SMQ's never heard of it), one in Arkansas and a baseball academy in Puerto Rico. Included in the latter group were notables Bridgton Academy in Maine, Notre Dame Prep in Massachusetts, Patterson School in North Carolina, St. Thomas More in Connecticut and noted basketball factory Oak Hill Academy in Virginia.

ARRESTED, on misdemeanor marijuana charages, once-projected South Florida starting quarterback Carlton Hill, who was caught with five other people in an epic dorm room smoke out. That's once-projected starter, because, combined with Hill's missing half of Spring practice to remain eligible, playing like a corpse the rest of the session (a very talented corpse! Who chose USF over Miami!) and returning two-year starter Pat Julmiste's sudden, stunning Spring competency, Hill is hereby banished to reserve wide receiver and Jim Leavitt's could-have-been fantasies.
(HT: EDSBS)

REACHED, a plea deal, by Nebraska recruit Major Culbert, who accepted misdemeanor charges of trespassing and harassment Wednesday along with five years probation and 30 days in prison rather than face much stiffer penalties on a sexual battery charge for allegedly accosting a couple girls in their off-campus apartment with eventual Oregon signee Marvin Johnson during a recruiting trip to Eugene in January (the girls reportedly backed the lesser charges because "They didn't want these guys to be (ruled as) sex offenders," according to Lane County deputy D.A. Bob Gorham). Culbert's scholarship was initally revoked because of the more serious charge, but apparently now could be reinstated:

Coach Bill Callahan said Wednesday night through NU sports information that he wasn't ready to comment on Culbert's future with the Huskers, and planned to review information pertinent to the case as he received it.
[...]
Culbert could not be reached for comment, but Bob Gorham, the Lane County deputy district attorney, said Culbert told him he had remained in contact with Nebraska coaches and still planned to come to Lincoln.

(HT: Da Wiz)

If anyone raises any eyebrows here, Callahan can just say he's trying to do everything in his power to bring the program back up to Tom Osborne's standards.

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