- - - - -


Sunday Morning Quarterback

Sunday Morning Quarterback

Tuesday, September 27, 2005

O-VER-RA-TED: LSU AS "ONE OF THE TOUGHEST PLACES TO PLAY"
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
At the outset of last night's LSU-Tennessee contest, fraidy-cat announcer Bob Davie (over the course of the game, Davie's thoughts were always worst-case and called for extreme conservatism or excessive concern to routine detail: "You have to kick the field goal here," "They need to make sure they secure a good quarterback-center exchange on this play," "The last thing the Vols want here is a turnover, Ron," "They need to just run out the clock and get to overtime," etc.) was not afraid to proclaim that LSU, in his opinion, had "the best home field advantage in all of college football." He is certainly not alone in his opinion - "Death Valley on a Saturday Night" is often cited with tones of awe designed to strike terror in the heart of opposing teams. And Tiger fans last night were, as usual, loud and proud.

Here is a breakdown of LSU's SEC record (SMQ does not include the Tulanes and North Texases that serve as annual, record-inflating Tiger Stadium bait) since 1998 (numbers on the left are home records, road/neutral records on the right):


1998: 1-3...1-3
1999: 1-3...0-4
2000: 4-0...1-3
2001: 2-2...3-1
2002: 3-1...3-2
2003: 3-1...5-0
2004: 4-0...2-2
2005: 0-1...0-0
TOTAL: 18-11...15-15

 Adding the 2001 home loss to UAB, that's 18-12 in Baton Rouge: 66 percent. Twice in that span - 2001 and 2003, the Tigers' two league championship seasons - LSU was better away from Death Valley. In his five-year tenure (2000-2004), Tiger Stadium was worth exactly two more wins (16) to Nick Saban than other SEC venues (14). This constitutes "the best home field advantage" in the country, or even one of the best?

In that same span, without even leaving the league, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee and Arkansas all have better home SEC records than LSU; Auburn and Alabama are each but one game back of the Tigers.

But we're also talking about home field advantage, "to afford profit or gain to; benefit." That is, which team benefits the most from playing at home? Since most games would probably have been won by the same team regardless of where they were played, there is no actual benefit to playing at home, i.e. LSU is tough at home because LSU is just tough, period, and will beat Mississippi State no matter where they play. So SMQ looked at not only the straight home records in SEC games since 1998, but also the road records to determine which team had the greatest discrepancy between home winning percentage and road winning percentage, thereby deriving the greatest benefit from playing at home (remember, only SEC games, no Florida States, Miamis, Georgia Techs, Clemsons or Notre Dames included; this year's early games are included):

Georgia: Home, 22-5; Road/Neutral, 21-13
Mississippi State: Home, 16-13; Road/Neutral, 5-25
Arkansas: Home, 19-10; Road/Neutral, 10-20
Florida: Home, 20-6; Road/Neutral, 26-8
LSU: Home, 18-11; Road/Neutral, 15-15
Ole Miss: Home, 16-12; Road/Neutral, 13-16
Alabama: Home, 17-12; Road/Neutral, 15-15
Tennessee: Home, 22-6; Road/Neutral, 24-9
Kentucky: Home, 8-20; Road/Neutral, 6-23
South Carolina: Home, 10-19; Road/Neutral, 9-20
Vanderbilt: Home, 4-25; Road/Neutral, 4-25
Auburn: Home, 17-12; Road/Neutral, 18-12

So the Bulldogs are the best, but remember that they benefit in this analysis from playing Florida at a neutral site each year; chalk up two or three more losses from the 'road/neutral' column into the home column if the Gators came to Athens every other year. The teams that you really don't want to see the "at" in front of on the schedule are Arkansas and Mississippi State, though the Bulldogs are near the top mainly because of their monumental road struggles (one SEC win away from Starkville - at Kentucky in 2000 - this decade). SMQ concludes that while Florida is probably the SEC school he would least want to visit as an opponent, the best home field advantage, in the true sense of the word, really goes to the Hogs. He doubts, though, that Mr. Davie, nor any other CFB announcing guru, will ever give 53,727-seat War Memorial Stadium the pre-game distinction of "one of the toughest places to play."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Permalink

6:30 PM

Comments:
"Death Valley on a Saturday Night" is often cited with tones of awe designed to strike terror in the heart of opposing teams.

The only thing scary about Death Valley on a Saturday Night is the amount of drinking until you puke and throw bottles at buses that goes on from 9AM until kickoff and beyond...
 
Considering Alabama's been on probation the last several years and has been dreadful and is only one game behind speaks volumes.
 
Post a Comment
Powered by Blogger

 

WELCOME...
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
And don't let the name fool ya - second guessing the phenomenal athletic feats and split-second decisions of college kids under extreme physical duress is for every day of the week.


AWWW!! The totally nicest people, like, ever!...

How much football does he watch? Dude's got insights on -everybody-, and by everybody, I mean everybody. Throw in some of the best writing in the blogosphere, and we're talking about a daily must-read.
- Burnt Orange Nation

SMQ starts to sound more and more like the Gregg Easterbrook of our ideal memories every day - whip-smart, systematic, omnivorous in his intellectual tastes and yet unafraid of the cheap joke.
- Every Day Should Be Saturday

Sunday Morning Quarterback is one of our favorite football blogs on the internet.
- State Fans Nation

Sunday Morning Quarterback is a killer football blog if you are a college football junkie. It is run by one of the most thoughtful, intelligent, and analytical writers in the college football blogosphere...The guy is thorough and detailed and provides a level of analysis you are not going to find anywhere else .
- Bruins Nation

Just another hack writer who hasn't done one lick of research... - SOT2

...the pride of Southern Mississippi ever since Brett Favre turned into an ESPN soap opera, has the sort of prose knack that can keep you riveted to a preview about any one of D-IA's scrubbier members ... should be given gifts.
- MGoBlog

- - - - -
e-mail Sunday Morning Quarterback at sundaymorningqb@yahoo.com

- - - - -
PREVIOUSLY FROM SMQ:

2006 Preview
Anatomy of an Underdog
BlogPoll: 1-10/11-25/Roundtable
The ACC
The Big Ten
The Big XII
The Sun Belt

Running Departments
The Rap Sheet
July 29/Aug. 1/Aug. 9/Aug. 16/Aug.19/Aug. 25/Sept. 28/Oct. 4/Oct. 5/Oct. 18/Oct. 26/Nov. 2/Nov. 7/Nov. 8/Nov. 28/Dec. 2/Dec. 8/ Dec. 11/Dec. 18/Dec. 21/Feb. 6/Feb. 10/April 7/April 14/April 21/April 29/May 6/May 12/May 19/May 26/June 2/June 10/June 16/June 24/June 30/July 8/Aug. 4

- - - - -
SMQ-APPROVED
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PAGES

News from the Big Guys
ESPN/ College Football News Wire
Sports Illustrated
FOX
CBS Sportsline
USA Today
Opinion: Columnists and bloggers
Around the Oval (Ohio State)
Badger Sports (Wisconsin)
The Blue-Gray Sky (Notre Dame)
Block U (Utah)
BoiFromTroy (Southern Cal)
Bruins Nation (UCLA)
Burnt Orange Nation (Texas)
The Corporate Headquarters of the San Antonio Gunslingers
Dave Sez (Virginia)
Dawg Sports (Georgia)
ESPN: Ivan Maisel/Pat Forde
Every Day Should Be Saturday (Florida)
FOX: Pete Fiutak
Golden Tornado (Georgia Tech)
Heisman Pundit
I'm a Realist (Georgia)
Journalism is for Rock Stars (Alabama)
Mark May Be Wrong
MDG CFB (Fresno State)
Mountain Lair (West Virginia)
MGOBlog (Michigan)
Orange::44 (Syracuse)
Paradigm Blog (Michigan)
Paul Westerdawg (Georgia)
Pitch Right (Navy)
Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer (Alabammer)
Section Six
Sexy Results (Virginia)
SI: Stewart Mandel/John Walters
Sporting Fools (Florida State)
Straight Bangin' (Michigan)
Texas A&M and Baseball, In No Particular Order (Texas A&M)
The 614 (Ohio State)
The House That Rock Built (Notre Dame)
The Sporting Gnomes (Clemson)
Tiger Pundit (Clemson)
We Must Ignite This Couch (West Virginia)
The Wizard of Odds

- - - - -
The Blog Poll

- - - - -
WANNA DO SOME RESEARCH? NERD! HERE'S SOME QUICK REFERENCES:

College Football Data Warehouse
College Football Research Center
College Football News
cfbstats.com
Football Commentary
THE STANDINGS
THE POLLS

INDIVIDUAL STATISTICS
Rushing
Passing
Receiving
All-Purpose
Scoring
Tackles
Sacks
Interceptions
Tackles For Loss
Field Goals
Punting
Kickoff Returns
Punt Returns
TEAM STATISTICS
Rushing Offense
Passing Offense
Total Offense
Scoring Offense
Rushing Defense
Passing Defense
Total Defense
Scoring Defense
Turnover Margin

- - - - -
Past Seasons
2005
Thursday Morning Quarterback
Sept. 29/Oct. 6/Oct. 20/Oct. 27/Nov. 3/Nov. 10/Nov. 17/Nov. 24/Dec. 1
Sunday Morning Quarterback
Oct. 2/Oct. 23/Oct. 30/Nov. 6/Nov. 13/Nov. 27
Stat Relevance Watch
Part One/Part Two/Part Three
SMQ Bowl Blitz
New Orleans/GMAC/Las Vegas/Poinsettia/Motor City

SMQ's [Hurricane-Abbreviated] 2005 Preview
Top 25 Countdown/Methodology
All-America Team
ACC
BIG EAST
BIG TEN
BIG XII