- - - - -


Sunday Morning Quarterback

Sunday Morning Quarterback

Monday, December 05, 2005

TEARS IN THE FEATHERS: THE SORRY CASE FOR OREGON IN A BCS BOWL
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Recently SMQ has become aware of a certain segment of the college football world with an odd affinity for Oregon. The Ducks are ranked fifth in all three of the latest polls, ahead of BCS-bound Notre Dame, and have received strong on-air BCS endorsements from WWL pundits Mark May and Lee Corso. The San Jose Mercury News bemoans Oregon's poor fate here; Oregon Commentator joins it here.

But the one-beaten Ducks are headed to the Holiday Bowl while two-loss Ohio State and Notre Dame, thanks to the rigged formulas and trickery of the heartless BCS, rack up the big bucks and TV exposure in the Fiesta Bowl.

Injustice? SMQ ranks Oregon 11th, behind Miami, Auburn, Georgia, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and LSU, so he obviously he doesn't enter the debate a Duck believer. But the pollsters and pundits are not in offical type commenting positions because they are fools, and SMQ decided to take more objective measures to answer the question: why the push for Oregon to slip into the BCS - and the moaning when it didn't - and not similar efforts and dismay on behalf of Miami, Auburn, Virginia Tech or LSU?

To do this, SMQ compiled the resumes of Oregon and these four teams - along with similarly poll-positioned Notre Dame and Georgia, for good measure - in the form of seven key components: record of defeated opponents, number of ranked opponents (both strength of schedule measures), average margin of victory, average margin of defeat, big wins, worst loss and "suspect" wins, or close (one score) victories over unranked opponents.

Here are the results, the tale of the tape, if you will, for the seven second-tier BCS hopefuls, ranked in each category below from best to worst (warning: rankings in "Best Wins" and "Worst Loss" categories are arbitrary):

Combined Record of Defeated Opponents (Div. I-A only)
1. GEORGIA: 58-53
2. VIRGINIA TECH: 56-54
3. LSU: 49-51
4. OREGON: 46-53
5. MIAMI: 46-55 (dramatically skewed by Duke and Temple, combined 1-21)
6. AUBURN: 43-45
7. NOTRE DAME: 42-56

Ranked Opponents (as determined by this week's final regular season polls)
1. VIRGINIA TECH: Five - 51-7 win over #24 Georgia Tech; 34-17 win over #11 West Virginia; 30-10 win over #19 Boston College; 27-7 loss to #9 Miami; 27-22 loss to #22 Florida State
2. LSU: Four - 21-17 win over #16/18 Florida; 20-17 win over #7 Auburn; 16-13 win (in overtime) over #13 Alabama; 34-14 loss to #8 Georgia
- MIAMI: Four - 10-7 loss to #22 Florida State; 36-30 (in triple overtime) win over #23 Clemson; 27-7 win over #12 Virginia Tech; 14-10 loss to #24 Georgia Tech
- AUBURN: Four - 23-14 loss to #24 Georgia Tech; 20-17 loss (in overtime) to #10 LSU; 31-30 win over #8 Georgia; 28-28 win over #13 Alabama
- GEORGIA: Four - 14-10 loss to #16/18 Florida; 31-30 loss to #7 Auburn; 14-7 win over #24 Georgia Tech; 34-14 win over #10 LSU
6. NOTRE DAME: Two - 17-10 win over #20/21 Michigan; 34-31 loss to #1 Southern Cal
7. OREGON: One - 45-13 loss to #1 Southern Cal

Average Margin of Victory (Again, Div. I-A opponents only)
1. VIRGINIA TECH: 28.6
2. AUBURN: 25.4
3. MIAMI: 19.8
4. NOTRE DAME: 18.4
5. GEORGIA: 17.9
6. LSU: 17.8
7. OREGON: 15.3

Average Margin of Defeat
1. GEORGIA: 2.5
2. NOTRE DAME: 3.0
3. MIAMI: 3.5
4. AUBURN: 6.0
5. LSU: 11.5
6. VIRGINIA TECH: 12.5
7. OREGON: 32.0

Best Wins
1. GEORGIA: 48-13 over unranked Boise State (9-3 record); 27-14 over unranked Tennessee (5-6 record); 14-7 over #24 Georgia Tech (7-4 record); 34-14 over #10 LSU (10-2 record)
2. VIRGINIA TECH: 51-7 over #24 Georgia Tech (7-4 record); 34-17 over #11 West Virginia (10-1 reord); 30-10 over #19 Boston College (8-3 record)
3. AUBURN: 48-7 over unranked South Carolina (7-4 record); 31-30 over #8 Georgia (10-2 record, SEC Champion); 28-18 over #13 Alabama (9-2 record)
4. LSU: 21-17 over #16/18 Florida (8-3 reord); 20-17 over #7 Auburn (9-2 reord); 16-13 (in overtime) over #13 Alabama (9-2 record)
5. MIAMI: 27-7 over #12 Virginia Tech (10-2 record), 23-3 over unranked Colorado (7-5 record)
6. NOTRE DAME: 17-10 over #20/21 Michigan (7-4 record); 49-28 over unranked Purdue (5-6 record); 41-21 over unranked Tennessee (5-6 record)
7. OREGON: 56-14 over unranked Oregon State (5-6 record); 34-31 over unranked Fresno State (8-4 record)

Worst Loss
1. GEORGIA: 14-10 to #16 Florida
2. MIAMI: 14-10 to #24 Georgia Tech
3. AUBURN: 23-14 to #24 Georgia Tech
4. NOTRE DAME: 44-41 (in overtime) to unranked Michigan State
5. OREGON: 45-13 to #1 Southern Cal
6. VIRGINIA TECH: 27-7 to #9 Miami
7. LSU: 34-14 to #8 Georgia

"Suspect" Wins (wins by one score or less to unranked teams)
1. AUBURN: Zero
2. MIAMI: One - 25-17 over Virginia
3. NOTRE DAME: One - 38-31 over Stanford
4. VIRGINIA TECH: One - 20-16 over NC State
5. GEORGIA: Two - 17-15 over South Carolina; 23-20 over Arkansas
- LSU: Two - 35-31 over Arizona State; 19-17 over Arkansas
7. OREGON: Three - 28-21 over Arizona; 27-20 (in overtime) over California; 34-31 over Washington State

By SMQ's estimation, the Ducks finish last of the group in five out of seven categories and no better than the middle of the pack in the other two. Compared to its rivals for the final BCS slot, this is a team beating weaker competition less impressively and without a single win over a demonstrably good team to hang its hat on. One game against a ranked team doesn't cut it in this group, especially when it's a 45-13 home loss.

If it had played and beaten UCLA, this might be a different story. Maybe. But these resumes as they stand show that, if anybody has a BCS beef, it's Virginia Tech or Miami (SMQ favors the latter), and definitely not poor Oregon.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Permalink

10:53 AM

Comments:
I disagree. It should've been the Ducks. I mean c'mon. Favoritism shouldn't be included, and thats exactly what the Coaches poll is. I say, just go off of win-loss rcord, and if need be, expand the "BCS" bowls to 5-6, or whatever is needed....
Or perhaps, include the Conference champs of every conference, B12,B10,etc... and perhaps drop the Independents....
 
Post a Comment
Powered by Blogger

 

WELCOME...
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
And don't let the name fool ya - second guessing the phenomenal athletic feats and split-second decisions of college kids under extreme physical duress is for every day of the week.


AWWW!! The totally nicest people, like, ever!...

How much football does he watch? Dude's got insights on -everybody-, and by everybody, I mean everybody. Throw in some of the best writing in the blogosphere, and we're talking about a daily must-read.
- Burnt Orange Nation

SMQ starts to sound more and more like the Gregg Easterbrook of our ideal memories every day - whip-smart, systematic, omnivorous in his intellectual tastes and yet unafraid of the cheap joke.
- Every Day Should Be Saturday

Sunday Morning Quarterback is one of our favorite football blogs on the internet.
- State Fans Nation

Sunday Morning Quarterback is a killer football blog if you are a college football junkie. It is run by one of the most thoughtful, intelligent, and analytical writers in the college football blogosphere...The guy is thorough and detailed and provides a level of analysis you are not going to find anywhere else .
- Bruins Nation

Just another hack writer who hasn't done one lick of research... - SOT2

...the pride of Southern Mississippi ever since Brett Favre turned into an ESPN soap opera, has the sort of prose knack that can keep you riveted to a preview about any one of D-IA's scrubbier members ... should be given gifts.
- MGoBlog

- - - - -
e-mail Sunday Morning Quarterback at sundaymorningqb@yahoo.com

- - - - -
PREVIOUSLY FROM SMQ:

2006 Preview
Anatomy of an Underdog
BlogPoll: 1-10/11-25/Roundtable
The ACC
The Big Ten
The Big XII
The Sun Belt

Running Departments
The Rap Sheet
July 29/Aug. 1/Aug. 9/Aug. 16/Aug.19/Aug. 25/Sept. 28/Oct. 4/Oct. 5/Oct. 18/Oct. 26/Nov. 2/Nov. 7/Nov. 8/Nov. 28/Dec. 2/Dec. 8/ Dec. 11/Dec. 18/Dec. 21/Feb. 6/Feb. 10/April 7/April 14/April 21/April 29/May 6/May 12/May 19/May 26/June 2/June 10/June 16/June 24/June 30/July 8/Aug. 4

- - - - -
SMQ-APPROVED
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PAGES

News from the Big Guys
ESPN/ College Football News Wire
Sports Illustrated
FOX
CBS Sportsline
USA Today
Opinion: Columnists and bloggers
Around the Oval (Ohio State)
Badger Sports (Wisconsin)
The Blue-Gray Sky (Notre Dame)
Block U (Utah)
BoiFromTroy (Southern Cal)
Bruins Nation (UCLA)
Burnt Orange Nation (Texas)
The Corporate Headquarters of the San Antonio Gunslingers
Dave Sez (Virginia)
Dawg Sports (Georgia)
ESPN: Ivan Maisel/Pat Forde
Every Day Should Be Saturday (Florida)
FOX: Pete Fiutak
Golden Tornado (Georgia Tech)
Heisman Pundit
I'm a Realist (Georgia)
Journalism is for Rock Stars (Alabama)
Mark May Be Wrong
MDG CFB (Fresno State)
Mountain Lair (West Virginia)
MGOBlog (Michigan)
Orange::44 (Syracuse)
Paradigm Blog (Michigan)
Paul Westerdawg (Georgia)
Pitch Right (Navy)
Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer (Alabammer)
Section Six
Sexy Results (Virginia)
SI: Stewart Mandel/John Walters
Sporting Fools (Florida State)
Straight Bangin' (Michigan)
Texas A&M and Baseball, In No Particular Order (Texas A&M)
The 614 (Ohio State)
The House That Rock Built (Notre Dame)
The Sporting Gnomes (Clemson)
Tiger Pundit (Clemson)
We Must Ignite This Couch (West Virginia)
The Wizard of Odds

- - - - -
The Blog Poll

- - - - -
WANNA DO SOME RESEARCH? NERD! HERE'S SOME QUICK REFERENCES:

College Football Data Warehouse
College Football Research Center
College Football News
cfbstats.com
Football Commentary
THE STANDINGS
THE POLLS

INDIVIDUAL STATISTICS
Rushing
Passing
Receiving
All-Purpose
Scoring
Tackles
Sacks
Interceptions
Tackles For Loss
Field Goals
Punting
Kickoff Returns
Punt Returns
TEAM STATISTICS
Rushing Offense
Passing Offense
Total Offense
Scoring Offense
Rushing Defense
Passing Defense
Total Defense
Scoring Defense
Turnover Margin

- - - - -
Past Seasons
2005
Thursday Morning Quarterback
Sept. 29/Oct. 6/Oct. 20/Oct. 27/Nov. 3/Nov. 10/Nov. 17/Nov. 24/Dec. 1
Sunday Morning Quarterback
Oct. 2/Oct. 23/Oct. 30/Nov. 6/Nov. 13/Nov. 27
Stat Relevance Watch
Part One/Part Two/Part Three
SMQ Bowl Blitz
New Orleans/GMAC/Las Vegas/Poinsettia/Motor City

SMQ's [Hurricane-Abbreviated] 2005 Preview
Top 25 Countdown/Methodology
All-America Team
ACC
BIG EAST
BIG TEN
BIG XII