Thursday, April 20, 2006
AN ABSURDLY PREMATURE ASSESSMENT OF: BUFFALO
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SMQ spins the wheel for a hastily-rendered, too-soon look at a random school's prospects for the fall, sans inevitable academic and criminal suspensions, sudden transfers, debilitating injuries and other miscellaneous misfortunes of the long summer
Today:
 BUFFALO
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Turner Gill could be great...but the Bulls are still sad sacks of the MAC.
PAST FIVE SEASONS: 8-47 (5-35 MAC) - 2005: 1-10 (1-7 MAC)
STARTERS BACK, ROUGHLY: 13 (8 Offense, 5 Defense)
WHAT'S CHANGED: Virtually the entire coaching staff, headed by former Nebraska star Turner Gill and a few other former Husker assistants charged with turning around probably the most pervasive culture of losing in the country.
WHAT'S THE SAME: A complete lack of I-A level talent, even by bottom tier MAC standards. The program hasn't won more than two games in any of its seven seasons since moving up, and has yet to show any signs it can compete there.
DOUBLE FIGURES? WE'RE ON FIRE! The Bulls scored all of a field goal over the first three games, all against weak sisters of the Big East, before freshman Drew Willy took the starting quarterback job and started lighting it up: BU hit 20 twice, and the season average wound up right at ten points per game. Okay, yeah -ugh. Only winless Temple scored less, and Willy wound up throwing 12 picks to just six touchdowns. The job is officially open during the Spring.
ON THE BRIGHT SIDE... Besides the quarterbacks, most of the rest of the offensive skill production returns: over 1,100 rushing yards are back in the form of backs Steven King, Jared Patterson and Philip Warren, and the top three receivers are all back, too.
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC SPRING PRACTICE-BASED CHATTER: SMQ's senseless mouse clicked on Buffalo just in time to read Mark Beech's account of slumming it with Gill at one of the Bulls' practices, where Beech deduced Gill had "won over" his new team with "a new energy":
Thinking like a winner is second nature to Gill, 43, who suffered more than three losses in a season only three times in 18 years at Nebraska, where he was a quarterback (28-2 as a three-year starter) and an assistant coach. The quarterbacks coach under Tom Osborne from 1992 through 2002, Gill recruited and tutored such standouts as Tommie Frazier (two national titles) and Eric Crouch (Heisman Trophy winner). After Osborne's successor, Frank Solich, was fired in 2003, Gill was the preferred candidate of many in Lincoln, but the job went to former Oakland Raiders boss Bill Callahan.
After one season under Callahan as receivers coach, Gill left Nebraska and spent last year as an assistant for the Green Bay Packers. Wow, a winner with pro experience - so what does the coach think about his commitment to turning his moribund new team into a respectable competitor?
"It didn't matter what school hired me," says Gill, who had no other head-coaching offers when he took the job. Oh...well,
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Gill: Thrilled to be at the helm of the Bills...wait, who? Aw crap.
REASON FOR HOPE: New coach, new attitude.
REASON TO BE AFRAID, VERY AFRAID: Um...yeah, the players ought to be on a team that's gunning to make a playoff.
IF THIS TEAM WERE ANY POP CULTURAL, HISTORICAL, POLITICAL, LITERARY OR OTHERWISE NOTABLE FIGURE, IT WOULD BE... The Born Loser: like the long-running, consistently overlook-able comic strip, there's no real reason Buffalo should  be taking up anyone's time, either.
HONESTLY, WITHOUT LOOKING AT THE SCHEDULE, SMQ'S THINKING: Three wins, max, if Gill's optimism routine works; one, again, if it doesn't.
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Previous absurdly premature assessments:
April 3: Central Michigan...April 4: Brigham Young...April 6: Kentucky...April 7: Bowling Green...April 8: Southern Cal...April 11: Rutgers...April 12: Marshall...April 13: Florida State...April 15: San Diego State...April 17: Alabama...April 19: Oregon State
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PREVIOUSLY FROM SMQ:
2006 Preview
Anatomy of an Underdog
BlogPoll: 1-10/11-25/Roundtable
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The Blog Poll
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WANNA DO SOME RESEARCH? NERD! HERE'S SOME QUICK REFERENCES:
College Football Data Warehouse
College Football Research Center
College Football News
cfbstats.com
Football Commentary
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THE POLLS
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Past Seasons
2005
Thursday Morning Quarterback
Sept. 29/Oct. 6/Oct. 20/Oct. 27/Nov. 3/Nov. 10/Nov. 17/Nov. 24/Dec. 1
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Part One/Part Two/Part Three
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