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Sunday Morning Quarterback

Sunday Morning Quarterback

Friday, April 21, 2006

AN ABSURDLY PREMATURE ASSESSMENT OF: NC STATE
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SMQ spins the wheel for a hastily-rendered, too-soon look at a random school's prospects for the fall, sans inevitable academic and criminal suspensions, sudden transfers, debilitating injuries and other miscellaneous misfortunes of the long summer

Today:
NC STATE
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PAST FIVE SEASONS: 38-24 (19-21 ACC) - 2005: 7-5 (3-5 ACC), Won Car Care Bowl
STARTERS BACK, ROUGHLY: 14 (7 Offense, 7 Defense)
WHAT'S CHANGED: Manny Lawson and Mario Williams were track stars masquerading as terrifying pass rushers, and kept quarterbacks wobbly-kneed on a consistent basis the last two years. Add to their departure leading tacklers Stephen Tulloch and Oliver Hoyte, and the defense that's kept the program afloat since Philip Rivers graduated is in danger of going a little weak-kneed itself.
WHAT'S THE SAME: The tendency to play to the competition, which has led to more or less stunning wins over Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and the like but also losses to Wake Forest and North Carolina. Week to week, the only consistency here is Chuck Amato's bizarre look and continence and the offense's inability to score more than 24 points in any single game.
SEE BALL. DON'T LET OTHER TEAM TAKE BALL. SEE WINS: It looks a lot like the work of two players - the Pack had lost three of four when it inserted Marcus Stone and Andre Brown into the lineup against Southern Miss and won five of six afterwards - but the offense actually averaged slightly fewer yards and points over the six games those two started than it had during the first half of the year; the real difference was turnovers: NC State had 20 giveaways to 12 takeways over the first seven games, and just four giveaways (and never more than one in any game) and 12 takeaways over the last five. From minus-4 to plus-4, from 3-4 to 4-1. Nobody will mistake Stone for a steely-eyed, icy-veined vet yet, but if he's as protective of the ball again, the general lack of firepower on offense won't be such a liability.
GET OFF OF OUR BACKS: Of course, it required the continued lights out play of the defense to turn the tables on close games when the offense remained mostly inept, and the 23 sacks gone with Lawson and unholy beast Williams - only the best defensive player in the country last year - make that rather tough. DeMario Pressley, LeRue Rumph and Garland Heath are good...but top ten overall defense again, for the third year running? Not bloody likely. The offense has to do more of its own lifting. (Not to pour lighter fluid and torch a deceased equine here, but earlier, SMQ referred to the offense's failure to top 24 points in any game against a I-A opponent last season; it did so thrice in 2004. By contrast, with Rivers leading, the Pack put up at least 30 on 14 I-A teams in 2002 and 2003, including Ohio State, and 40 on six, including Florida State, Virginia and Texas Tech (twice). Since: zero 40-point outings).
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC POST-SPRING CHATTER: Redshirt freshman Mike Greco was the team's top newcomer and most improved quarterback during the Spring and is also a "dual threat" scrambling option - might that mean a possible challenge to Stone, the "most dependable" quarterback (and 2004 "most improved" winner at the position himself) but hardly one who's earned a de facto spot?
REASON FOR HOPE: Did the team turn a corner with Stone and Brown? Pedestrian numbers don't matter if you do the little, timely things to win.
REASON TO BE AFRAID, VERY AFRAID: The defense has pulled all the weight and it's out of gas. Why should Stone be appreciably better?
IF THIS TEAM WERE ANY POP CULTURAL, HISTORICAL, POLITICAL, LITERARY OR OTHERWISE NOTABLE FIGURE, IT WOULD BE... Any M. Night Shamalan movie - conservative and reliably, utterly predictable in the end, but has its moments, is solid enough to keep your attention, and provides some hope for a decent payoff up until it falls flat, just like you thought it would.
HONESTLY, WITHOUT LOOKING AT THE SCHEDULE, SMQ'S THINKING: Seven wins, automobile accessory-inspired postseason trip. Five winning years out of six under Amato's fist is good enough to get the benefit of the doubt in SMQ's estimation, but 18 points per game doesn't take you very far in the tougher ACC.

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Previous absurdly premature assessments:
April 3: Central Michigan...April 4: Brigham Young...April 6: Kentucky...April 7: Bowling Green...April 8: Southern Cal...April 11: Rutgers...April 12: Marshall...April 13: Florida State...April 15: San Diego State...April 17: Alabama...April 19: Oregon State...April 20: Buffalo

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e-mail Sunday Morning Quarterback at sundaymorningqb@yahoo.com

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PREVIOUSLY FROM SMQ:

2006 Preview
Anatomy of an Underdog
BlogPoll: 1-10/11-25/Roundtable
The ACC
The Big Ten
The Big XII
The Sun Belt

Running Departments
The Rap Sheet
July 29/Aug. 1/Aug. 9/Aug. 16/Aug.19/Aug. 25/Sept. 28/Oct. 4/Oct. 5/Oct. 18/Oct. 26/Nov. 2/Nov. 7/Nov. 8/Nov. 28/Dec. 2/Dec. 8/ Dec. 11/Dec. 18/Dec. 21/Feb. 6/Feb. 10/April 7/April 14/April 21/April 29/May 6/May 12/May 19/May 26/June 2/June 10/June 16/June 24/June 30/July 8/Aug. 4

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SMQ-APPROVED
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PAGES

News from the Big Guys
ESPN/ College Football News Wire
Sports Illustrated
FOX
CBS Sportsline
USA Today
Opinion: Columnists and bloggers
Around the Oval (Ohio State)
Badger Sports (Wisconsin)
The Blue-Gray Sky (Notre Dame)
Block U (Utah)
BoiFromTroy (Southern Cal)
Bruins Nation (UCLA)
Burnt Orange Nation (Texas)
The Corporate Headquarters of the San Antonio Gunslingers
Dave Sez (Virginia)
Dawg Sports (Georgia)
ESPN: Ivan Maisel/Pat Forde
Every Day Should Be Saturday (Florida)
FOX: Pete Fiutak
Golden Tornado (Georgia Tech)
Heisman Pundit
I'm a Realist (Georgia)
Journalism is for Rock Stars (Alabama)
Mark May Be Wrong
MDG CFB (Fresno State)
Mountain Lair (West Virginia)
MGOBlog (Michigan)
Orange::44 (Syracuse)
Paradigm Blog (Michigan)
Paul Westerdawg (Georgia)
Pitch Right (Navy)
Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer (Alabammer)
Section Six
Sexy Results (Virginia)
SI: Stewart Mandel/John Walters
Sporting Fools (Florida State)
Straight Bangin' (Michigan)
Texas A&M and Baseball, In No Particular Order (Texas A&M)
The 614 (Ohio State)
The House That Rock Built (Notre Dame)
The Sporting Gnomes (Clemson)
Tiger Pundit (Clemson)
We Must Ignite This Couch (West Virginia)
The Wizard of Odds

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The Blog Poll

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WANNA DO SOME RESEARCH? NERD! HERE'S SOME QUICK REFERENCES:

College Football Data Warehouse
College Football Research Center
College Football News
cfbstats.com
Football Commentary
THE STANDINGS
THE POLLS

INDIVIDUAL STATISTICS
Rushing
Passing
Receiving
All-Purpose
Scoring
Tackles
Sacks
Interceptions
Tackles For Loss
Field Goals
Punting
Kickoff Returns
Punt Returns
TEAM STATISTICS
Rushing Offense
Passing Offense
Total Offense
Scoring Offense
Rushing Defense
Passing Defense
Total Defense
Scoring Defense
Turnover Margin

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Past Seasons
2005
Thursday Morning Quarterback
Sept. 29/Oct. 6/Oct. 20/Oct. 27/Nov. 3/Nov. 10/Nov. 17/Nov. 24/Dec. 1
Sunday Morning Quarterback
Oct. 2/Oct. 23/Oct. 30/Nov. 6/Nov. 13/Nov. 27
Stat Relevance Watch
Part One/Part Two/Part Three
SMQ Bowl Blitz
New Orleans/GMAC/Las Vegas/Poinsettia/Motor City

SMQ's [Hurricane-Abbreviated] 2005 Preview
Top 25 Countdown/Methodology
All-America Team
ACC
BIG EAST
BIG TEN
BIG XII