- - - - -


Sunday Morning Quarterback

Sunday Morning Quarterback

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

AN ABSURDLY PREMATURE ASSESSMENT OF: NAVY
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SMQ spins the wheel for a hastily-rendered, too-soon look at a random school's prospects for the fall, sans inevitable academic and criminal suspensions, sudden transfers, debilitating injuries and other miscellaneous misfortunes of the long summer

Today:
NAVY
- - - - -
Change: Overrated, once you've got the right system and the next anonymous overachiever reaches the front of the line


PAST FIVE SEASONS: 28-31 - 2005: 8-4, Won Poinsettia Bowl
STARTERS BACK, ROUGHLY: 17 (8 Offense, 9 Defense)
WHAT'S CHANGED: Quarterback Lamar Owens, like all Navy QBs, was no dynamo with his arm, but who needs to be when you're only throwing around ten passes a game? New guy Brian Hampton, another one-and-done senior starter, much more resembles short, stocky former Middie quarterback Aaron Polanco than he does the quicker Owens, but will fit right in to the same role as trigger man in the ol' veer. Hampton is also, presumably, not an accused rapist.
WHAT'S THE SAME: Born to run: still nobody's figured out the option much, with the Middies topping 400 yards rushing against three different opponents en route to finishing No. 1 in the country on the ground, their 134th consecutive season among the top five. Even minus Owens, key figures return in Adam Ballard, Matt Hall and Reggie Campbell, not to mention four starting offensive linemen. Campbell, you'll recall, tied a bowl record with five touchdowns in the rather eye-opening dismantling of Colorado State in the Poinsettia Bowl, which makes it enticing - though hardly foolproof - to project his production to rise above 43 yards per game, his '05 average.

Most importantly, the schedule's not any tougher.
DON'T WANT NO SHORT PEOPLE 'ROUND HERE: The Midshipmen remain almost comically undersized in some spots: there's a 247-pound right tackle, a 225-pound nose tackle and a 200-pound middle linebacker, to cite the most extreme, 1965-ish examples. SMQ has a soft spot for the supposed "little guys" - his own 145-pound ass was frequently moved from split end down to tight end his last year of high school, unaccompanied by any coaching for line play, a move that made sense given his lineman speed but that left him hoping to stalemate at best hulking kids with 60 to 140-pound weight advantages - but in general this Davidian approach tends to be not the most sound strategy.
The defense returns just about everybody, too, but its problems against any competent attack last year means this isn't as much a reason for enthusiasm as the returning ability on the other side. Tyler Tidwell was good at getting into the backfield (19 TFL, 8 sacks, including 3 in the bowl game) and returns along with leading tackler Rob Caldwell, but as a whole it was ripped up - especially by opposing quarterbacks, the last four of whom averaged 304 yards per game and threw for 11 touchdowns to one interception (all but one - Brad Quinn - it should be noted, in Navy wins despite the numbers).
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC POST-SPRING CHATTER: College Football News has begun to crack underneath the sweltering offseason sun beating down on the expansive desert of the offseason, issuing the beginnings of a ludicrous 100-player Heisman list that SMQ refers to here only to note that Navy fullback Ballard is on it:

95. FB Adam Ballard, Navy – A monster season awaits Ballard, who was a godsend at the end of 2005, steamrolling three bad defenses for 488 yards on just 62 carries in the Middies’ three final games. He’ll be the first option in an offense that led the nation in rushing last year.
(HT: Navy blogger Pitch Right)

Ballard, whom SMQ has not seen play, comes across here as the Incredible Hulk, yet still ranks behind mega-hyped...er, eh, make that "presumably not made up" UNLV quarterback Rocky Hinds on the early Heisman watch. Just wait 'till those voters see Ballard's aiming point on the veer come September, and then we'll see who's No. 94!

- - - - -
Not sweating Adam Ballard just yet


REASON FOR HOPE: All of Johnson's teams have been winners, and none have been as experienced as this one. The option's not tricking anybody at this point, but it still seems to be working as well as ever.
REASON TO BE AFRAID, VERY AFRAID: Might this be the year opposing defenses finally get a clue, or just overpower the smaller Middies ? We don't know yet how effective Hampton will be, or if the defense will show any improvement.
IF THIS TEAM WERE ANY POP CULTURAL, HISTORICAL, POLITICAL, LITERARY OR OTHERWISE NOTABLE FIGURE, IT WOULD BE... Your successful Mom and Pop hardware store on Main Street: sometimes seems a little quaint, old-fashioned or even corny, never going to rise to compete with the biggest competition, but (except for the rapist quarterback thing) utterly respectable in its niche and still capable of holding its own with far fewer resources after all these years.
HONESTLY, WITHOUT LOOKING AT THE SCHEDULE, SMQ'S THINKING... Notre Dame is basically an automatic annual loss, but it's the only one in that category, so another eight wins seems inevitable until the schedule picks up more games tougher than Rutgers and Tulsa.

- - - - -
Previous absurdly premature assessments:
April 3: Central Michigan...April 4: Brigham Young...April 6: Kentucky...April 7: Bowling Green...April 8: Southern Cal...April 11: Rutgers...April 12: Marshall...April 13: Florida State...April 15: San Diego State...April 17: Alabama...April 19: Oregon State...April 20: Buffalo...April 22: NC State...April 23: Arizona ...April 24: Memphis...April 26: Louisiana Tech...Apr il 28: Iowa...April 30: Toledo...May 2: Ohio State...May 3: Mississippi State...May 5: Southern Miss...UL-Lafayette...May 11: Akron...May 13: Michigan State...May 15: Air Force...May 17:Stanford...May 18: Georgia Tech...May 21: Connecticut...May 23: Purdue

- - - - -
Permalink

6:46 PM

Comments:
Most importantly, the schedule's not any tougher.

Actaully, It is. Notre Dame is well, Notre Dame. Tulsa and Rutgers are Top 30 caliber, and Stanford (which already is decent-good)may very well have a breakout season (Trent Edwards is getting a lot of offeason praise, apparently his progression has really picked up). East Carolina is much improved, and some analysts are already prediciting a Bowl and challanging for the C-USA title. Air Force, UCONN, and Army are all not great to decent, but UCONN could be in position to have a winning season. Duke, Temple, and E Michagen all suck, but I wouldn't rate them In the bottom 10, that's researved for the entire Sun Belt.

I will post a greater critique on Pitch Right later today...Gotyta defend my boys
 
Post a Comment
Powered by Blogger

 

WELCOME...
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
And don't let the name fool ya - second guessing the phenomenal athletic feats and split-second decisions of college kids under extreme physical duress is for every day of the week.


AWWW!! The totally nicest people, like, ever!...

How much football does he watch? Dude's got insights on -everybody-, and by everybody, I mean everybody. Throw in some of the best writing in the blogosphere, and we're talking about a daily must-read.
- Burnt Orange Nation

SMQ starts to sound more and more like the Gregg Easterbrook of our ideal memories every day - whip-smart, systematic, omnivorous in his intellectual tastes and yet unafraid of the cheap joke.
- Every Day Should Be Saturday

Sunday Morning Quarterback is one of our favorite football blogs on the internet.
- State Fans Nation

Sunday Morning Quarterback is a killer football blog if you are a college football junkie. It is run by one of the most thoughtful, intelligent, and analytical writers in the college football blogosphere...The guy is thorough and detailed and provides a level of analysis you are not going to find anywhere else .
- Bruins Nation

Just another hack writer who hasn't done one lick of research... - SOT2

...the pride of Southern Mississippi ever since Brett Favre turned into an ESPN soap opera, has the sort of prose knack that can keep you riveted to a preview about any one of D-IA's scrubbier members ... should be given gifts.
- MGoBlog

- - - - -
e-mail Sunday Morning Quarterback at sundaymorningqb@yahoo.com

- - - - -
PREVIOUSLY FROM SMQ:

2006 Preview
Anatomy of an Underdog
BlogPoll: 1-10/11-25/Roundtable
The ACC
The Big Ten
The Big XII
The Sun Belt

Running Departments
The Rap Sheet
July 29/Aug. 1/Aug. 9/Aug. 16/Aug.19/Aug. 25/Sept. 28/Oct. 4/Oct. 5/Oct. 18/Oct. 26/Nov. 2/Nov. 7/Nov. 8/Nov. 28/Dec. 2/Dec. 8/ Dec. 11/Dec. 18/Dec. 21/Feb. 6/Feb. 10/April 7/April 14/April 21/April 29/May 6/May 12/May 19/May 26/June 2/June 10/June 16/June 24/June 30/July 8/Aug. 4

- - - - -
SMQ-APPROVED
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PAGES

News from the Big Guys
ESPN/ College Football News Wire
Sports Illustrated
FOX
CBS Sportsline
USA Today
Opinion: Columnists and bloggers
Around the Oval (Ohio State)
Badger Sports (Wisconsin)
The Blue-Gray Sky (Notre Dame)
Block U (Utah)
BoiFromTroy (Southern Cal)
Bruins Nation (UCLA)
Burnt Orange Nation (Texas)
The Corporate Headquarters of the San Antonio Gunslingers
Dave Sez (Virginia)
Dawg Sports (Georgia)
ESPN: Ivan Maisel/Pat Forde
Every Day Should Be Saturday (Florida)
FOX: Pete Fiutak
Golden Tornado (Georgia Tech)
Heisman Pundit
I'm a Realist (Georgia)
Journalism is for Rock Stars (Alabama)
Mark May Be Wrong
MDG CFB (Fresno State)
Mountain Lair (West Virginia)
MGOBlog (Michigan)
Orange::44 (Syracuse)
Paradigm Blog (Michigan)
Paul Westerdawg (Georgia)
Pitch Right (Navy)
Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer (Alabammer)
Section Six
Sexy Results (Virginia)
SI: Stewart Mandel/John Walters
Sporting Fools (Florida State)
Straight Bangin' (Michigan)
Texas A&M and Baseball, In No Particular Order (Texas A&M)
The 614 (Ohio State)
The House That Rock Built (Notre Dame)
The Sporting Gnomes (Clemson)
Tiger Pundit (Clemson)
We Must Ignite This Couch (West Virginia)
The Wizard of Odds

- - - - -
The Blog Poll

- - - - -
WANNA DO SOME RESEARCH? NERD! HERE'S SOME QUICK REFERENCES:

College Football Data Warehouse
College Football Research Center
College Football News
cfbstats.com
Football Commentary
THE STANDINGS
THE POLLS

INDIVIDUAL STATISTICS
Rushing
Passing
Receiving
All-Purpose
Scoring
Tackles
Sacks
Interceptions
Tackles For Loss
Field Goals
Punting
Kickoff Returns
Punt Returns
TEAM STATISTICS
Rushing Offense
Passing Offense
Total Offense
Scoring Offense
Rushing Defense
Passing Defense
Total Defense
Scoring Defense
Turnover Margin

- - - - -
Past Seasons
2005
Thursday Morning Quarterback
Sept. 29/Oct. 6/Oct. 20/Oct. 27/Nov. 3/Nov. 10/Nov. 17/Nov. 24/Dec. 1
Sunday Morning Quarterback
Oct. 2/Oct. 23/Oct. 30/Nov. 6/Nov. 13/Nov. 27
Stat Relevance Watch
Part One/Part Two/Part Three
SMQ Bowl Blitz
New Orleans/GMAC/Las Vegas/Poinsettia/Motor City

SMQ's [Hurricane-Abbreviated] 2005 Preview
Top 25 Countdown/Methodology
All-America Team
ACC
BIG EAST
BIG TEN
BIG XII