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Sunday Morning Quarterback

Sunday Morning Quarterback

Friday, May 12, 2006

AN ABSURDLY PREMATURE ASSESSMENT OF: NORTH CAROLINA
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SMQ spins the wheel for a hastily-rendered, too-soon look at a random school's prospects for the fall, sans inevitable academic and criminal suspensions, sudden transfers, debilitating injuries and other miscellaneous misfortunes of the long summer

Today:
NORTH CAROLINA
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Not getting any worse - not that the loss column will necessarily get the message


PAST FIVE SEASONS: 24-36 (16-24 ACC) - 2005: 5-6 (4-4 ACC)
STARTERS BACK, ROUGHLY: 10 (5 Offense, 5 Defense)
WHAT'S CHANGED: The quarterback - again - after graduated Matt Baker's one-and-done starting career. The Heels' most dangerous deep threat, Jarwarski Pollack, also took off, along with fellow long-time starters Kyle Ralph and Skip Seagraves on the offensive line and most of the starting defense.
WHAT'S THE SAME: John Bunting and his immortal mustache remain after five scattershot seasons filled with inexplicable losses inevitably followed by inexplicable defeats, usually evening out around .500 - just enough to save Bunting his job. It also remains true, though, that his team, regardless of its uncanny knack for the from-nowhere upset (FSU in 2001, Georgia Tech and Miami in 2004, Boston College last year), remains well below the rest of the league in terms of talent.
HE'S BA-ACK: Baker may have been the team's best option last year, but he wasn't good enough to overcome a dismal rushing game or lead the team to a winning record or postseason berth, so his one season in the starting role before graduation had a net gain for the program just above 'zero' - not that there was much of a choice, when his freshman backup was the kind of quarterbacking talent you move to fullback the following season, as the staff has done with Joey Bozich.
So in Baker's place...resurfacing...rising from the depths...if you thought he was dead...you thought wrong:

QB Joe Dailey is the favorite to be the Tar Heels starter in 2006.


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I know who's going to be your quarterback...


Tar Heel fans' only hope of defeating the monster - Nebraska's only losing quarterback maybe ever threw 19 interceptions, 19, while almost singlehandedly trashing the Huskers' offense in 2004 like it was downtown Tokyo under Godzilla - is the emergence of Cam Sexton, said to be in the race in the Spring but the likely underdog: he threw only three passes in the Spring game to Dailey's 15. And so the nightmare begins...
WE'RE FINE, JUST SO LONG AS THE QUARTERBACK DOESN'T HAVE TO THROW A PASS: One of Dailey's problems in Nebraska was that scheme's eventually predictable over-reliance on the pass at the expense of establishing the run, something Bunting certainly will vow to avoid. But unless Ronnie McGill establishes himself among a trio of underwhelming runners that collectively barely managed 100 yards a game last year, defenses will again be able to confuse an erratic and easily-flustered quarterbacl with the blitz and sit on the pass. The defense, which is half new on top of slipping a bit last year, can contribute to raising the offense into at least the top 100 by keeping things close enough that Dailey isn't forced to play desperate heave ho every fourth quarter (average pass attempts in UNC wins in '05: 28.8; in losses: 35).
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC POST-SPRING CHATTER: Defensive ends are barrelling down the field after popped reverses, linebackers are recovering after getting sucked in on play-action, offensive linemen are looking to "behead" teammates during scrimmages, and even the plastic hard hat has made its apperance - sounds like there's a sense of camaraderie and shared mission in the fourth-floor staff meeting room that's permeating the program:

The 2006 spring was indeed about change and evolution: Three new assistant coaches, two new quarterbacks, a brand new offensive playbook, young faces throughout vying for playing time, older players watching from the boundary as they nursed all manner of injuries, position changes for a half-dozen players.
[...]
It's all adding up to a noticeable buzz around the program. Don't look now, but Bunting and the Tar Heels are gaining on the rest of the world. They're 9-7 in the newly expanded ACC over the last two years (fourth best among 12 teams). The staff has recruited well for three years now and this year closed better than ever with the high-profile targets. The University has provided the funds for retaining and hiring quality assistant coaches.

"Next fall can't come soon enough," says Don McCauley, an All-America running back 36 years ago and today a key Rams Club executive. "I've not seen as much optimism for an upcoming season since John's been here. There's a lot of work left to be done. But if everyone does their part, it could be a very interesting season."


As opposed to all those teams who report feeling down, out, pessimistic, moving in the wrong direction and permanently mired in a culture of losing after Spring practice. Put on a sunny face!
REASON FOR HOPE: Bunting's back is against the wall again, a place he's been frequently and always managed to fight his way out of before. A couple mild upsets and one big one - again, nothing new for this bunch - could put UNC back in a bowl game.
REASON TO BE AFRAID, VERY AFRAID: Dailey has submarined one offense already - why not another? The talent remains behind the increasingly sharp ACC curve.
IF THIS TEAM WERE ANY POP CULTURAL, HISTORICAL, POLITICAL, LITERARY OR OTHERWISE NOTABLE FIGURE, IT WOULD BE... An overworked corporate sycophant, piled under a mountain of assignments and still accepting every new assignment the boss sends his way - with its schedule, even when UNC overachieves, it can never catch up in the end.

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I don't know what they're doing to me here, man - I finally handle Virginia, and I'm thinking, 'Great, Wake Forest time,' or something, you know, but then there's freakin' Miami again! And I'm like, 'Didn't I take just care of you yesterday?'...


Not very teams could beat NC State, Utah, Virginia and Boston College in the same season and still find themselves on the wrong end of the .500 stick. As if the ACC schedule wasn't tough enough nowadays, the Heels have insisted on playing the likes of mid-major/minor headhunters Louisville and Utah as well as Wisconsin, with Notre Dame and Fresno State rotating onto the slate this year - under those circumstances, five wins, when the only team you're really favored to beat is Duke, is a hell of a season's work. Take a damn breath, guys, and maybe get an East Carolina or two back in the mix.
HONESTLY, WITHOUT LOOKING AT THE SCHEDULE, SMQ'S THINKING... Five wins again, at least two of them eyebrow-raisers. Since Bunting's been on board, we shouldn't expect any less...nor should we expect any fewer than two eyebrow-raising losses, either.


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Previous absurdly premature assessments:
April 3: Central Michigan...April 4: Brigham Young...April 6: Kentucky...April 7: Bowling Green...April 8: Southern Cal...April 11: Rutgers...April 12: Marshall...April 13: Florida State...April 15: San Diego State...April 17: Alabama...April 19: Oregon State...April 20: Buffalo...April 22: NC State...April 23: Arizona...April 24: Memphis...April 26: Louisiana Tech...April 28: Iowa...April 30: Toledo...May 2: Ohio State...May 3: Mississippi State...May 5: Southern Miss...UL-Lafayette...May 11: Akron

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e-mail Sunday Morning Quarterback at sundaymorningqb@yahoo.com

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PREVIOUSLY FROM SMQ:

2006 Preview
Anatomy of an Underdog
BlogPoll: 1-10/11-25/Roundtable
The ACC
The Big Ten
The Big XII
The Sun Belt

Running Departments
The Rap Sheet
July 29/Aug. 1/Aug. 9/Aug. 16/Aug.19/Aug. 25/Sept. 28/Oct. 4/Oct. 5/Oct. 18/Oct. 26/Nov. 2/Nov. 7/Nov. 8/Nov. 28/Dec. 2/Dec. 8/ Dec. 11/Dec. 18/Dec. 21/Feb. 6/Feb. 10/April 7/April 14/April 21/April 29/May 6/May 12/May 19/May 26/June 2/June 10/June 16/June 24/June 30/July 8/Aug. 4

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SMQ-APPROVED
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PAGES

News from the Big Guys
ESPN/ College Football News Wire
Sports Illustrated
FOX
CBS Sportsline
USA Today
Opinion: Columnists and bloggers
Around the Oval (Ohio State)
Badger Sports (Wisconsin)
The Blue-Gray Sky (Notre Dame)
Block U (Utah)
BoiFromTroy (Southern Cal)
Bruins Nation (UCLA)
Burnt Orange Nation (Texas)
The Corporate Headquarters of the San Antonio Gunslingers
Dave Sez (Virginia)
Dawg Sports (Georgia)
ESPN: Ivan Maisel/Pat Forde
Every Day Should Be Saturday (Florida)
FOX: Pete Fiutak
Golden Tornado (Georgia Tech)
Heisman Pundit
I'm a Realist (Georgia)
Journalism is for Rock Stars (Alabama)
Mark May Be Wrong
MDG CFB (Fresno State)
Mountain Lair (West Virginia)
MGOBlog (Michigan)
Orange::44 (Syracuse)
Paradigm Blog (Michigan)
Paul Westerdawg (Georgia)
Pitch Right (Navy)
Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer (Alabammer)
Section Six
Sexy Results (Virginia)
SI: Stewart Mandel/John Walters
Sporting Fools (Florida State)
Straight Bangin' (Michigan)
Texas A&M and Baseball, In No Particular Order (Texas A&M)
The 614 (Ohio State)
The House That Rock Built (Notre Dame)
The Sporting Gnomes (Clemson)
Tiger Pundit (Clemson)
We Must Ignite This Couch (West Virginia)
The Wizard of Odds

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The Blog Poll

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WANNA DO SOME RESEARCH? NERD! HERE'S SOME QUICK REFERENCES:

College Football Data Warehouse
College Football Research Center
College Football News
cfbstats.com
Football Commentary
THE STANDINGS
THE POLLS

INDIVIDUAL STATISTICS
Rushing
Passing
Receiving
All-Purpose
Scoring
Tackles
Sacks
Interceptions
Tackles For Loss
Field Goals
Punting
Kickoff Returns
Punt Returns
TEAM STATISTICS
Rushing Offense
Passing Offense
Total Offense
Scoring Offense
Rushing Defense
Passing Defense
Total Defense
Scoring Defense
Turnover Margin

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Past Seasons
2005
Thursday Morning Quarterback
Sept. 29/Oct. 6/Oct. 20/Oct. 27/Nov. 3/Nov. 10/Nov. 17/Nov. 24/Dec. 1
Sunday Morning Quarterback
Oct. 2/Oct. 23/Oct. 30/Nov. 6/Nov. 13/Nov. 27
Stat Relevance Watch
Part One/Part Two/Part Three
SMQ Bowl Blitz
New Orleans/GMAC/Las Vegas/Poinsettia/Motor City

SMQ's [Hurricane-Abbreviated] 2005 Preview
Top 25 Countdown/Methodology
All-America Team
ACC
BIG EAST
BIG TEN
BIG XII